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Dec 2 12Z & 18Z Models


WxUSAF

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Dec 3 12z GFS also not throwing us much of a bone for snow in the next 2 weeks. Does get flurries up to the southern DC burbs with the clipper this weekend. Then a weak looking Miller B next Friday/Saturday that misses us north, besides some flurries probably. Definitely solidly cold for the next 10-14 days. Into fantasy land, GFS still has a -NAO but a west coast trough and big SE ridge.

The gfs would fit with the forecasts of the mjo and nina climo. However, with the enembles still having a cold look I'd certainly wait to give up on Dec.

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Keep one thing in mind:

Models tend to have a bias to break patterns down way too fast. The GFS has always had a tendency to do this. So even if the pattern does break down, which it probably would, at least for a while, it would probably be 1-2 weeks later than what the GFS is showing right now.

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