WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 No one else started it, so I might as well. Basically...clipper looks very consistent on the 12z runs and all miss us wide south. Definitely cold next week. Wouldn't be surprised if some lake-effect flurries get over the mountains or one of the vortmaxs rotating around the big low in the NE/Canadian maritimes spits out some flakes. GFS has 2 chances for light snow late next week about the same time as the Euro. Pattern breaks down after mid-month with Pac firehouse jet roaring straight across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That bad, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Based on comments in the NY/Philly forum, the Euro gives us chances of a few dustings/light accums/flurries early next week, although people weren't exactly sure of the cause. Big storm around Day 10 looks all rain since it appears to cut west of the Apps. Very cold (for this time of year) in general until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Based on comments in the NY/Philly forum, the Euro gives us chances of a few dustings/light accums/flurries early next week, although people weren't exactly sure of the cause. Big storm around Day 10 looks all rain since it appears to cut west of the Apps. Very cold (for this time of year) in general until then. Those are miserable times--- cold, rain then cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 have to say, almost expected this to occurr.. No one said the weather would cooperate for those of us in the central midatlantic to get snow. Just have to keep watching and hoping the weather gods will cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Sounds like typical La Nina: cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry. Rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If that's all it's going to do I rather have it warm and dry, like recordbreaking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z nam has the New England system a bit north and weaker which seems to allow the clipper to be back a smidge n and west with the precip... not sure it means anything but there's still time for perhaps something to change back good (better at least) up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I have little doubt that this clipper will move farther north, but I wouldn't expect anything over an inch just yet around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Its really too bad that the clipper can't come up the coast, looks like a strong system once off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z NAM jumps the energy to the coast starting at 54hr, which really robs the system of moisture for anything much north of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z nam has the New England system a bit north and weaker which seems to allow the clipper to be back a smidge n and west with the precip... not sure it means anything but there's still time for perhaps something to change back good (better at least) up here Yes, just a little. There's still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z NAM jumps the energy to the coast starting at 54hr, which really robs the system of moisture for anything much north of RIC. I question this, honestly I think 00z throws us a bone and 6z things will start heading north. good sampling ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I question this, honestly I think 00z throws us a bone and 6z things will start heading north. good sampling ftw. North, maybe. Throw us a bone? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 FWIW, the 12z euro ensembles through d15 bring back a pretty strong -nao.............AGAIN. It does have a miller b threat around d10 which may be on the mild side down here...(heck maybe even up this way), but then troughing gets established once again in the east. As far as the features go, we still have a -epo...well almost west based -epo, with a Bering Sea ridge. This teleconnects to a GOA low with a sw US ridge. Verbatim it might be miller-b(ish), but the troughing signal as of now seems strong in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 FWIW, the 12z euro ensembles through d15 bring back a pretty strong -nao.............AGAIN. It does have a miller b threat around d10 which may be on the mild side down here...(heck maybe even up this way), but then troughing gets established once again in the east. As far as the features go, we still have a -epo...well almost west based -epo, with a Bering Sea ridge. This teleconnects to a GOA low with a sw US ridge. Verbatim it might be miller-b(ish), but the troughing signal as of now seems strong in the east. I think the idea of the noa ridging coming back makes sense. Thanks for the info on the euro ensembles beyond day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z gfs looks slightly better out to 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18z gfs looks slightly better out to 54 Still, the vortex over NY is a deal breaker. The clipper just doesn't have room to get rid of the northwesterly flow across the area and if you look at the 54hr forecast 500 h, the lines actually suggest confluence over us. I don't see the NY vortex getting out of way which makes it hard to get the snow up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Still, the vortex over NY is a deal breaker. The clipper just doesn't have room to get rid of the northwesterly flow across the area and if you look at the 54hr forecast 500 h, the lines actually suggest confluence over us. I don't see the NY vortex getting out of way which makes it hard to get the snow up our way. yeah im just grasping at this pt... oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Still, the vortex over NY is a deal breaker. The clipper just doesn't have room to get rid of the northwesterly flow across the area and if you look at the 54hr forecast 500 h, the lines actually suggest confluence over us. I don't see the NY vortex getting out of way which makes it hard to get the snow up our way. I have to agree wes, I mean im giving it a few more runs then punt, for sampling purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 take that i95 snow weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The said vortex over the northeast sure undergoes some massive expansion in just 6 hours, between 54 and 60. Is that plausible? I would think that were that not to occur, we might be able to get some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the ultimate solution seems to be heading toward the only places outside the mts to get measurable precip will be too warm for snow la nina is la biatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The day 8 threat seems wedged with the HP still in place to the NE ahead of it... maybe an ice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 insult to injury 18Z GFS for BWI http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Scrap the clipper and hope something makes it over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Dec 3 12z GFS also not throwing us much of a bone for snow in the next 2 weeks. Does get flurries up to the southern DC burbs with the clipper this weekend. Then a weak looking Miller B next Friday/Saturday that misses us north, besides some flurries probably. Definitely solidly cold for the next 10-14 days. Into fantasy land, GFS still has a -NAO but a west coast trough and big SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 and you wonder why lwx did not mention snow on monday or tuesday in its forecast for this weekend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 its a disaster run. La Nina sucks. My fear for a snowless winter(0.0) is looking like reality for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 its a disaster run. La Nina sucks. My fear for a snowless winter(0.0) is looking like reality for DCA I think you may be right. No real need to watch any models from here on out. We'll see you next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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