powderfreak Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The purpose of this thread and ramfications for impugning NWS is dubiously self-serving to me. I suspect that some of the issue here is really that some folks wanted the melodrama and excitement, and feel cheated because there wasn't blaring sirens and red flashing lights for people to get all manic in fear just that much more. They don't want their extreme weather party cut into - and perception is everything whether they know it or not.. and it is petty. The same sort of vibe emanates from the chorus in the winter, when snow is handled even slightly off from what is or is not realized relative to a forecast; just waiting to pounce with drool! Wrong attitude to have though. Again, it's more a reflection of weather for entertainment/emotion rather than science, and needing some source to blame when those emotional expectations were not fulfilled. It's all stupid to begin with because no one should be investing that way. Ahhh, leave it to Tip to make this about emotions and not just a discussion of hindsight following the worst SNE tornado outbreak in decades. From reading this thread, in absolutely no way do the posts come across as "the NWS spoiled my emotional party because they did not issue a tornado warning 12 minutes sooner." 90% of the posts in this thread are from degree meteorologists or professional forecasters, not weenies (who are the ones who usually get nasty when a Winter Storm Warning wasn't issued and their house had a localized 7.1" accumulation in 12 hours). Given that the NWS is aiming for a 12-minute lead time on TORs, I think its prudent to see what happened. Trust me, the same would be happening if some midwest city got hit and the warning was late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The purpose of this thread and ramfications for impugning NWS is dubiously self-serving to me. I suspect that some of the issue here is really that some folks wanted the melodrama and excitement, and feel cheated because there wasn't blaring sirens and red flashing lights for people to get all manic in fear just that much more. They don't want their extreme weather party cut into - and perception is everything whether they know it or not.. and it is petty. The same sort of vibe emanates from the chorus in the winter, when snow is handled even slightly off from what is or is not realized relative to a forecast; just waiting to pounce with drool! Wrong attitude to have though. Again, it's more a reflection of weather for entertainment/emotion rather than science, and needing some source to blame when those emotional expectations were not fulfilled. It's all stupid to begin with because no one should be investing that way. I was on top of those cells yesterday and I thought it went over just fine. The reflectivity channels only hinted at a hooks until a tad later... I am aware of the gated this and that argument, but the velocity channels at KTAN its self did not show that quite as obviously as whatever these alterior product(s) origins are. Unless NWS uses some internal imagery that they don't show the publice - i don't know. Otherwise, from what was shown on KTAN's website's rad page, it was not abundantly clear there was a tornado on the ground - ground truth was key there; hense the appearance of a late dial up. I was watching both cells closely and thought the Springfield one - using KTAN's rad source - was somewhat suspicious looking when they issued a warning, and part of me even thought that might be the other way - trigger happy. I've seen countless "hooks" in the Plains with far better NWS radar velocity channel gates, and nothing more than a funnel cloud reported by storm chasers. Give it a rest. There is no issue here with how it was handled. I promise, the next one you'll get ALL your party favors in, and not have any of its affects diminished. Respectively disagree on almost all counts with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Respectively disagree on almost all counts with this. Respectively agree with you on almost all counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The purpose of this thread and ramfications for impugning NWS is dubiously self-serving to me. I suspect that some of the issue here is really that some folks wanted the melodrama and excitement, and feel cheated because there wasn't blaring sirens and red flashing lights for people to get all manic in fear just that much more. They don't want their extreme weather party cut into - and perception is everything whether they know it or not.. and it is petty. I don't understand, in any sense, how you can draw this idea from the tone and content of the first several posts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Respectively disagree on almost all counts with this. Respectively agree with you on almost all counts. Violently and disrespectfully agree with your disagreements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 lol tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Disagree with Tip, agree with most everyone else. The same issues came up with the Rogers, MN event five years ago - a tornado fatally injured a young woman as the NWS forecaster was writing the warning. From that several recommendations were made - including adding "severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes without warning" (something like that). I think what may have transpired was a) with only a 5% tor risk out, forecasters perhaps believed rotation was too far aloft or just a temporal feature, so they waited a scan or two to decide further; b ) after a couple of scans to confirm the persistence of the couplet, they began writing the warning but c) if more forecasters were manning the northern storms, switching focus and trying to add the specific warning text and towns may have taken a few minutes to do. By then, the storm would have been nearly over Springfield. (This was, in fact, nearly the sequence of events described in the Rogers service assessment that led to the late warning there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Violently and disrespectfully agree with your disagreements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Not sure that anyone is out to feather their own nest with this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Maybe it didn't show up on BOX's radar....but it was pretty clear on ENX's as that is what radar I was watching from the Northampton storm as well. They have access to adjacent radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 They have access to adjacent radars. Exactly...was just questioning since Tip mentioned he didn't think you could see it on BOX radar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 My guess is that they also aren't using their website like tip to view the radar data...probably using something more advanced like one of the GR products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 My guess is that they also aren't using their website like tip to view the radar data...probably using something more advanced like one of the GR products AWIPS most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'm just not familiar with what is included in AWIPS...but it makes sense that they arent using weather.gov to track couplets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'm just not familiar with what is included in AWIPS...but it makes sense that they arent using weather.gov to track couplets AWIPS is really nice, believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'm just not familiar with what is included in AWIPS...but it makes sense that they arent using weather.gov to track couplets yes, I mentioned before that there data is not what the public sees, its more like the pay data people post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 ...Of course, in the Springfield area, there is no radar close enough to determine conditions at the surface -- the lowest slices of KBOX and KENX are both over a mile high. Far-from-radar situations like this present complications to the warning process, and sometimes put more emphasis on ground truth reports. Still, combining certain radar signatures with a storm-scale conceptual model, and the storm's expected evolution based on a detailed mesoscale analysis, can lead to early warnings and lead time before a tornado actually touches down. NWS in Maine was issuing tor warnings for "severe thunderstorms with potential to produce tornados" (which I assume means no ground truthing was available), with both GYX and CAR issuing such warnings for storms 70-80 miles from their respective radars. At least one (F1 in Embden, NW of Skowhegan) has been confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stellarfun Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Here are the key NWS performance measures. mostly for local offices: Lead time (minutes), accuracy (%) and False Alarm Rate (FAR) (%) for tornado warnings (storm based) 2010 Actual 12*/ 74%/ 74% 2011 Target 12 /70% /72% 2012 Target 13 / 72% /71% * 12 minutes was the target. Preliminary results are that the lead time in 2010 was 14 minutes. Lead time (minutes) and accuracy (%) for flash flood warnings 2010 Actual 76/82% 2011 Target 38/72% 2012 Target 40/74% Hurricane forecast track error (48 hour) (nautical miles) 2010 Actual 70 2011 Target 87 2012 Target 87 Hurricane forecast Intensity error (48 hour) (difference in knots) 2010 Actual 18 2011 Target 13 2012 Target 12 Lead time (hours) and accuracy (%) for winter storm warnings 2010 Actual 21/90% 2011 Target 15/90% 2012 Target 19/90% In 2010, the target for the false alarm rate was 72 percent, the actual was 74 percent. The target was exceeded because the NWS offices tend to overwarn because of a concern for public safety. (I am not sure how accuracy is measured, but it may be whether the tornado path is within the warning cone.) It would seem the NWS is willing to prioritize lead time even if that results in a relatively high number of false alarms. Government agencies sometimes set targets low, e.g., flash flood warning. By doing so, they avoid not achieving a target and having to explain why. Over time however, persistent low-balling would be questioned with the result being a raised target. Tornado warning lead time is probably the #1 performance measure for the NWS, because of potential for death and injury. Second is probably hurricane landfall accuracy because of the scale of evacuations, preparedness, and disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Don't compare a tornado to a snowstorm. Most snowstorms, except for the HUGE blizzards, are incoveniences. Torandoes are much more than an inconvenience. okay, whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I don't understand, in any sense, how you can draw this idea from the tone and content of the first several posts in this thread. Show me the irrefutable proof they were late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Show me the irrefutable proof they were late. Apparently, the BAF ASOS ob was augmented with a +FC 6 minutes before the warning went out. I personally didn't pay careful enough attention to the radar times on that particular cell to make a comment on those 'nor what the velocity was on the SRM. But an augmented ob that stated a tornado was on the ground is certainly at least some pretty solid evidence of the time when it may have been on the ground. As someone mentioned before though, these aren't infallible obs, but given that we do know a tornado was on the ground in Westfield, we can believe it. The only thing else that could be in question is the time of the ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Apparently, the BAF ASOS ob was augmented with a +FC 6 minutes before the warning went out. I personally didn't pay careful enough attention to the radar times on that particular cell to make a comment on those 'nor what the velocity was on the SRM. But an augmented ob that stated a tornado was on the ground is certainly at least some pretty solid evidence of the time when it may have been on the ground. As someone mentioned before though, these aren't infallible obs, but given that we do know a tornado was on the ground in Westfield, we can believe it. The only thing else that could be in question is the time of the ob. The met on wbz talked about funnel cloud report. A funnel cloud with a super cell storm should be enough for a tornado warning, even if radar was not showing good low level support/or if the tda was not flagging the storm? Then again no one at the time talked about when the funnel cloud was seen or by who. And maybe it was some sort of tech issue with getting the warning out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Major couplet W of Springfield. Over 100 knots gate to gate. Wow... intense couplet evident on both ENX and BOX... hope they torpedo it soon. whoA WESTFIELD/BARNES,MA (BAF) ASOS reports Tornado KBAF 012024Z 30005KT 1 1/4SM R20/4500VP6000FT FC +TSRA BKN024 BKN030 OVC065 26/22 A2984 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD B23 E24 AO2 LTG DSNT NW-E TSB1958RAB00 P0023 wow Show me the irrefutable proof they were late. TORNADO WARNING CTC003-013-015-MAC013-015-027-012115- /O.NEW.KBOX.TO.W.0004.110601T2030Z-110601T2115Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 430 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHERN TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTH CENTRAL WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT... EASTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SPRINGFIELD...CHICOPEE... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Show me the irrefutable proof they were late. Ummmm by the time they issued it the tornado was on the ground for 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Well done Again... I don't think anyone is trying to be improper here. We know NWS folks... just wondering why the delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Lets take a look at the tape http://www.youtube.c...u/2/DIg1cr7nPKg go to the five minute mark, wbz possibly got the report late, time stamp was at 4:29, met talked about the storm had already left the area. But again things can go wrong that are not anyone persons fault, storm did start to look better when it was in Springfield the scan just after the tornado warning was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Well done Again... I don't think anyone is trying to be improper here. We know NWS folks... just wondering why the delay? Yeah there really is no argument to be had. it is what it is. i'm pretty confident we all hold our local offices in high regard. i would wager that >99% of the posters respect, admire and appreciate the efforts of upton, taunton, grey etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Well done Again... I don't think anyone is trying to be improper here. We know NWS folks... just wondering why the delay? Agree completely. The context and discussion in here has been entirely respectful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 brutal Better info on AMWX then anywhere, when Brett and the southern/ Midwest guys started posting, really started me thinking this was going to be huge not some Ef1 situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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