IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 This morning’s sunny commute was surreal as I approached Harriman. The top of Bear Mountain and the hills that frame the thruway were shrouded in low clouds and fog this morning. Cool! I always think of the White Mountains of New Hampshire when I see that around here as I've seen it often up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-270200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0687.110726T1830Z-110727T0200Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC009-011-013-015-017-025-027-270200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0687.110726T1830Z-110727T0200Z/ MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX SUFFOLK WORCESTER MEC001-005-007-011-017-025-031-270200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0687.110726T1830Z-110727T0200Z/ ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN KENNEBEC OXFORD SOMERSET YORK NHC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-270200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0687.110726T1830Z-110727T0200Z/ NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD NYC071-079-087-119-270200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0687.110726T1830Z-110727T0200Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE PUTNAM ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER RIC003-007-270200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0687.110726T1830Z-110727T0200Z/ RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT PROVIDENCE ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...GYX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 All-time record high Lake Erie water temperature off Buffalo tied. The water temperature reached 80 degrees this morning, tying the record set August 14-16, 1988. Records began in 1927. http://www.erh.noaa....s/laketemps.php Other water temperatures include 81 at Erie, 75 at Cleveland, 77 at Toledo, and 79 at Belle Isle, MI. Buoy 45005, 35 miles NW of Cleveland, was reading 80 this morning; Buoy 45132 off Port Stanley was reading 79; and Buoy 45142 off Port Colburne was at 78. The water temperature reached 82 off Cleveland this morning, shattering the old record of 79, set August 16-28, 1988 and July 21, 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Here we go... Nice line headed our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 looks like we will pick up some rain, to our NE in MA they have a monster cell on their hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Had another great shower today, probaly .10-.25 in 15 min. Keep it coming! Binghamton nws has a severe t-storm watch out for my area until 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 What a near perfect cell that was. 55 minute total with 30 minutes of rain then right back to blue sky. Just enough with yesterdays rain to keep my mt bike trails soft and tacky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Nice Storm just past by me to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 That storm looked and sounded better than it actually was IMBY. A little under 1" of rain since Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Garden update: Giant zucchini and Lemon Boy tomatoes, harvested today: Black Beauty eggplant, about 3-4 days from harvest: Cheyenne Bush winter squash: Sage, cinnamon basil, and Brussels sprouts: KING CORN: Yellow bush bean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 That storm looked and sounded better than it actually was IMBY. A little under 1" of rain since Sunday. Visually it was the one of the best classic storm structure cells I have seen in Orange. The wall cloud, as I was exiting Rt17 appeared to be to the NW over Sullivan; by the time I got home and took the picture it was almost on top of us to the north. It was hauling butt. Two Hail reports in Delaware Co and six wind damage reports in Sullivan Co from that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Garden update: Looks good Zuck, I have some tomatoes and various peppers ready to be picked in a day or two. My tomato plants have some sort or bacteria deal on the lower stems. I’ve been cutting them off when they show signs ofblack around the leaf edges. I hope the fruit continue to out run the creeping crud, the middle and top or the plants are ok. Whatever it is came in on the plants from the nursery on the plants I got in Lowes in Wallkill. The plants I got at Home Depot in Rockland are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Visually it was the one of the best classic storm structure cells I have seen in Orange. The wall cloud, as I was exiting Rt17 appeared to be to the NW over Sullivan; by the time I got home and took the picture it was almost on top of us to the north. It was hauling butt. Two Hail reports in Delaware Co and six wind damage reports in Sullivan Co from that cell. I agree on the structure, I saw the wall cloud racing over my house and I thought we were going to get nailed for sure but it just missed me. Looks good Zuck, I have some tomatoes and various peppers ready to be picked in a day or two. My tomato plants have some sort or bacteria deal on the lower stems. I’ve been cutting them off when they show signs ofblack around the leaf edges. I hope the fruit continue to out run the creeping crud, the middle and top or the plants are ok. Whatever it is came in on the plants from the nursery on the plants I got in Lowes in Wallkill. The plants I got at Home Depot in Rockland are fine. I have the same issue with my tomatoes too and I got them at lowes in Wallkill as well. The tomatoes that I've harvested have been sweet though so I have that going for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I agree on the structure, I saw the wall cloud racing over my house and I thought we were going to get nailed for sure but it just missed me. I have the same issue with my tomatoes too and I got them at lowes in Wallkill as well. The tomatoes that I've harvested have been sweet though so I have that going for me Live and learn. It appeared within a week or two of transplant. If it happens again, I'm removing them and replanting with stock from another location. Maybe I'll start them next year from seed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Live and learn. It appeared within a week or two of transplant. If it happens again, I'm removing them and replanting with stock from another location. Maybe I'll start them next year from seed. We may not have the same issue then because mine starting having issues in the past week or two, I'm thinking the heat had something to do with it....and me forgetting to give them enough water for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGER WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES TO THE NORTH OF EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE SRN AND CNTRL STATES...ESSENTIALLY FROM COAST TO COAST. A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SPREAD EAST WITHIN THE BELT OF FAST FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A LEADING SHORT WAVE WAVE...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MODEST HEIGHT FALLS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FROPA FROM WRN NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SYNOPTIC FRONT...LIKELY SEGMENTED AND INTERSPERSED WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL TRAIL FROM THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST DISTURBANCE WSW ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE. A TRAILING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WLYS IS FORECAST TO BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER ERN MT/WY BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOW AND FRONT TRACKING OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LASTLY...TROPICAL STORM DON IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX COAST DURING FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN GULF COAST NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WELL REMOVED FROM THE SMALLER TROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DON. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD BRING A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE TX COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DON MOVE INLAND. ...NORTHEAST... BOTH SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NY DURING THE DAY. SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NERN PA AND NRN NJ ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND...FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...GREATER LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WOULD ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO IF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Live and learn. It appeared within a week or two of transplant. If it happens again, I'm removing them and replanting with stock from another location. Maybe I'll start them next year from seed. The yellow-and-black circles that form on leaves and start killing them? Sadly, I don't know of any cultivars that are resistant to it (it's fungal), but I would recommend starting the mater plants by seed. I've done a mix of seed and stock for the past couple years, and my experience has been that the pre-started nursery plants tend to fall ill with early blight much easier easier than the plants I started myself. From what I've heard this year, it's been a rough mater season in the Hudson Valley... my 4th of July's are just now starting to ripen up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The yellow-and-black circles that form on leaves and start killing them? Sadly, I don't know of any cultivars that are resistant to it (it's fungal), but I would recommend starting the mater plants by seed. I've done a mix of seed and stock for the past couple years, and my experience has been that the pre-started nursery plants tend to fall ill with early blight much easier easier than the plants I started myself. From what I've heard this year, it's been a rough mater season in the Hudson Valley... my 4th of July's are just now starting to ripen up. Hey Julian the second picture in this link is what I have http://www.growgarde...temphylium.html . Maybe I'll start from seed next season. My tomatoes are just starting to come in, late just like yours. Surprisingly the heirloom plants look 100% better than the hybrids that are supposed to be resistant to a wider variety of pathogens. The peppers are just great, just like just year and the wild raspberry that grew in this year in a wooded area in the yard is completely fantastic, much better the raspberries purchased in the store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Hey Julian the second picture in this link is what I have http://www.growgarde...temphylium.html . Maybe I'll start from seed next season. My tomatoes are just starting to come in, late just like yours. Surprisingly the heirloom plants look 100% better than the hybrids that are supposed to be resistant to a wider variety of pathogens. The peppers are just great, just like just year and the wild raspberry that grew in this year in a wooded area in the yard is completely fantastic, much better the raspberries purchased in the store. It's kind of a tough decision between planting the fancy F1 hybrids and planting stable heirlooms. That's why it's good to plant some of both and see which ones perform the best. The nice thing about tomatoes is that the plants can look like they've been run over by a few 18-wheelers and still produce beautiful fruit for you... no such luck for squashes and pumpkins. On another note, we're still in the SPC slight risk: TSTMS NOW ONGOING FROM NRN IL ENE TO NRN OH SHOULD STRENGTHEN/EXPAND ENEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AREA WILL LIE BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS...WITH DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR RANGING FROM 30 KTS OVER THE OH VLY TO 35-40 KT OVER PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETUP COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO BROKEN BANDS/CLUSTERS...WITH SCTD SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH EARLY-MID EVE. AND...WHILE WEAK LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT OVERALL SVR COVERAGE/INTENSITY...A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO NEAR WARM FRONT IN NJ/SE NY/SW NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN Pretty overcast over the region... don't know if we can clear out quickly or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 SPC has us now in a 5% area for tor risk. 30% area of wind damage just to our west. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NEB PNHDL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST... ...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST... EWD PROGRESSION OF WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND LARGER-SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE D1 PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW NEAR TORONTO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD...REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS BY EVENING WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE GRADUALLY DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NY ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 80 F. EXPECT A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF DENSER...MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS /I.E. SRN NY INTO PA/ WHERE LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC WARMING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...THIS CORRIDOR WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF 40-50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL WIND MAXIMUM ATTENDANT TO THE LAKE ONTARIO VORTICITY MAXIMUM...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 SPC has us now in a 5% area for tor risk. 30% area of wind damage just to our west. Yeppers, could be an interesting afternoon. Still not much of any sunshine though, every time it looks to break for a bit the clouds win out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeppers, could be an interesting afternoon. Still not much of any sunshine though, every time it looks to break for a bit the clouds win out again. yeah, there is a lack of sun today but SPC might still issue a watch in a few hours if the air mass still manages to destabilize and if it happens I am positive that I will be on the road when it hits MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS PA...NJ...NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291657Z - 291900Z SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...BOTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE MAIN CONCERN...WITH CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. MCV IS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER ERN LAKE ONT AND ADJOINING SERN ONT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD TO EXTREME NRN NY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN AVAILABLE VWP SAMPLING...CONSISTENT WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS BOTH S OF MCV AND IN ADVANCE OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PA AND ADJOINING PORTIONS NY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THIS AREA BY 19Z...AS TSTMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NY AND NRN PA EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS 70S F WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NY TO 2500 J/KG OVER SOME OF CENTRAL-ERN PA. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL NJ NWWD ACROSS ERN PA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AMIDST COOLING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NY JUST N PA BORDER. COMBINED WARM FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN NY AND NERN PA THROUGH AFTERNOON...SPREADING FAVORABLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEWD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF THAT BOUNDARY WHERE BACKING OF SFC WINDS AND ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE PRESENT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH ANY RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILE FAVORS DAMAGING GUSTS...WHETHER IN ISOLATED FORM FROM DISCRETE CELLS OR BETTER-ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL FROM BOW ECHOES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeppers, could be an interesting afternoon. Still not much of any sunshine though, every time it looks to break for a bit the clouds win out again. Vis loop is showing it fighting back and forth with the cloud cover. Thinning somewhat. Meso. disc. out now. We'll see in a few hours!! MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS PA...NJ...NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291657Z - 291900Z SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...BOTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE MAIN CONCERN...WITH CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. MCV IS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOPS OVER ERN LAKE ONT AND ADJOINING SERN ONT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD TO EXTREME NRN NY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN AVAILABLE VWP SAMPLING...CONSISTENT WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS BOTH S OF MCV AND IN ADVANCE OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PA AND ADJOINING PORTIONS NY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THIS AREA BY 19Z...AS TSTMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NY AND NRN PA EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS 70S F WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NY TO 2500 J/KG OVER SOME OF CENTRAL-ERN PA. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL NJ NWWD ACROSS ERN PA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AMIDST COOLING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NY JUST N PA BORDER. COMBINED WARM FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN NY AND NERN PA THROUGH AFTERNOON...SPREADING FAVORABLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEWD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF THAT BOUNDARY WHERE BACKING OF SFC WINDS AND ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE PRESENT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH ANY RELATIVELY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILE FAVORS DAMAGING GUSTS...WHETHER IN ISOLATED FORM FROM DISCRETE CELLS OR BETTER-ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL FROM BOW ECHOES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 The sun is beginning to win out over the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The sun is beginning to win out over the clouds. Socked in soild in Rockland ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Socked in soild in Rockland ATM Yeah, about 20 minutes after I posted that the clouds starting winning out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Wunderground is showing a watch, but I dunno why it's not on the SPC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Wunderground is showing a watch, but I dunno why it's not on the SPC site. There is a Watch now until 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 That storm near Binghamton could be interesting around here, HM just mentioned the same thing in the NYC thread on todays storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That storm near Binghamton could be interesting around here, HM just mentioned the same thing in the NYC thread on todays storms. Be leaving work at Nazareth, Pa in a few minn. Might rrun into that fun by the Milford area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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