TJay Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 As noted as a concern in the the SPC disco below, the MCS heading toward the HV is decaying over the last 60 minutes DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NERN U.S... THE ESEWD PROGRESSION OF MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL COLLECTIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM EXPANSIVE CNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS SEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS BY 19/12Z. PERSISTENT WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY. LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVER UPSTATE NY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD THIS MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS COMPLEX WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...OR UNDERGO DIURNAL DECAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE W WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD FRONT ITSELF. EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM ONTARIO...ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE NRN PLAINS... ...PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND TODAY... A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM SWRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC ACROSS NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SWD/SEWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...MORNING CONVECTION IS WEAKENING ACROSS SE NY/MA...BUT SUBSTANTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DURING THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY WWD. THERE WILL BE SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION...AND ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PA IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX MOVING SEWD OVER LAKE ERIE. SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN PA. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH DEEP-LAYER WNWLY/NWLY SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER N...LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ACROSS NRN NY/VT/NH. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SW /ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL NWLY FLOW/ WILL KEEP THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MARGINAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Lets hope we can get something to fire upstream later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Nice storm just rolled through .50 of rain, frequent ctg and a nice gust over 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 We were hit good last night IMBY.. Very heavy rain, wind, lots of CTG lightning. I mowed my rain gauge with the lawn tractor but I'd guessamate we had 1 inch or more during that storm. It came down too hard to be absorbed in to the ground and just ran off in drainage ditches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 We were hit good last night IMBY.. Very heavy rain, wind, lots of CTG lightning. I mowed my rain gauge with the lawn tractor but I'd guessamate we had 1 inch or more during that storm. It came down too hard to be absorbed in to the ground and just ran off in drainage ditches. Only .08" IMBY but what a light show while I drove home from New WIndsor on 207, very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Its absolutely disgusting outside.. 84.1/78 HI of 95.. Oh BTW its only 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Its absolutely disgusting outside.. 84.1/78 HI of 95.. Oh BTW its only 10am You can say that again, currently sitting at 92 here in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 95.5 / 74.9 It's a sultry day outside. Daughters softball practice isn't going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 WOW.... 92.1/80.. HI 110 @ 2PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 WOW.... 92.1/80.. HI 110 @ 2PM 93.8 / 74.3. High of 97.3 today. Max heat index was 110.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 One of those rare times my parents up in Albany are hotter than me down here! ALB hit 99 on the hour, lets see when the 6-hrly came in if they got to 100! Heat index there is 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 @950am 87.3/79 HI of 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 @950am 87.3/79 HI of 102 HI in Goshen is 111 right now....that's just plain stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 87/54 here now.... Stiff west wind. Yesterday it hit 93. HI in Goshen is 111 right now....that's just plain stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 100.4 / 70. Disgusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 It may be hot out-but at least we don't have to shovel hot! Woke up this morning to a brief rain shower-barely enough to do anything here in Southern Dutchess. All it did was prep it to be down right muggy and hot later. Stay cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 It may be hot out-but at least we don't have to shovel hot! Woke up this morning to a brief rain shower-barely enough to do anything here in Southern Dutchess. All it did was prep it to be down right muggy and hot later. Stay cool! 78.2 / 70. Never thought I would be saying this just yet, but I am looking forward to the winter. No rain here overnight, but hopefully we can get some over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Cooler today, but just took a walk across the Poughkeepsie RR bride and you couldn't tell after two and a half miles of walking in this humidity. Looking forward to the next synoptic rain event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 HAH I start looking forward to winter by mid June usually. The upside of this hot period is that this is at the pinnacle of the warm season and you know it is steadily downhill from here. I find the hot wx much more depressing when it comes early like in June. This is the hottest mother nature can throw at us...direct discharge of that plains heat. It's gonna heat up again later week, but won't be as bad. 78.2 / 70. Never thought I would be saying this just yet, but I am looking forward to the winter. No rain here overnight, but hopefully we can get some over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 78.2 / 70. Never thought I would be saying this just yet, but I am looking forward to the winter. No rain here overnight, but hopefully we can get some over the next couple days. I would bypass winter altogether if I could. Black ice and I don't get along since I broke my ankle in 3 places and dislocated it two winters ago. I will keep the warm weather for as long as it will stick around. I wouldn't mind a few rains storms to come through-but it always ends up feeling more muggy this time of year when they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 It may be hot out-but at least we don't have to shovel hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 It may be hot out-but at least we don't have to shovel hot! I'm not sure how one shovels cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 All-time record high Lake Erie water temperature off Buffalo tied. The water temperature reached 80 degrees this morning, tying the record set August 14-16, 1988. Records began in 1927. http://www.erh.noaa....s/laketemps.php Other water temperatures include 81 at Erie, 75 at Cleveland, 77 at Toledo, and 79 at Belle Isle, MI. Buoy 45005, 35 miles NW of Cleveland, was reading 80 this morning; Buoy 45132 off Port Stanley was reading 79; and Buoy 45142 off Port Colburne was at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 All-time record high Lake Erie water temperature off Buffalo tied. The water temperature reached 80 degrees this morning, tying the record set August 14-16, 1988. Records began in 1927. http://www.erh.noaa....s/laketemps.php Other water temperatures include 81 at Erie, 75 at Cleveland, 77 at Toledo, and 79 at Belle Isle, MI. Buoy 45005, 35 miles NW of Cleveland, was reading 80 this morning; Buoy 45132 off Port Stanley was reading 79; and Buoy 45142 off Port Colburne was at 78. Hmmm, I wonder what the lake effect season will be like this winter because of this..... not that it matters much for IMBY as all we ever get is a stray brief squall that leaves a coating under the very best conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Hmmm, I wonder what the lake effect season will be like this winter because of this..... not that it matters much for IMBY as all we ever get is a stray brief squall that leaves a coating under the very best conditions. Favored areas are gonna get buried this yr.. And I would think an early season LE event is in the cards this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 The rain is actually a really pleasant sight this morning. I'm tired of the backyard haboobs every time I mow the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Today was great for my area. Never got above the upper 60,s and received 1-3 inches of rainfall in my county. Reports of upwards of 6 inches to my south! Todays 18z runs kill another severe "heat wave" idea, gosh i hope it holds it's ground. Sick of the heat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 It may be hot out-but at least we don't have to shovel hot! 1. You must not work outside. 2. Who in their right mind, would enjoy these temps? You cant even walk outside and breathe for christ sake! 3. To shovel cold, is very hard. I'm a contractor and I work outside 95% of the time. I have worked in some of the most extreme conditions our area has to offer. I will say this, I would hands down, work in 10 degrees with the wind blowing, than 100, humid and sunny. Hell with that!!! Not to mention, I was in the army for several years, and have expeirenced far worse conditions than 100 and sunny of course. It's still hell no matter what, if outside all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 This morning’s sunny commute was surreal as I approached Harriman. The top of Bear Mountain and the hills that frame the thruway were shrouded in low clouds and fog this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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