hudsonvalley21 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Correct me if im wrong but isnt that embankment where the houses are quite high? Thats pretty remarkable! I think it's around 60 feet high or so where the house is to the creek. I live in on the first block in the development. It's amazing to see. I feel bad for those folks down on that side. They have to worry when ever there will be a heavy rain event forcasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I think it's around 60 feet high or so where the house is to the creek. I live in on the first block in the development. It's amazing to see. I feel bad for those folks down on that side. They have to worry when ever there will be a heavy rain event forcasted. Wow... Thats pretty impressive. Did water wash onto the road above the embankment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Wow... Thats pretty impressive. Did water wash onto the road above the embankment? No it did not get that high. It was just the speed of the water that cut the embankment down. There was some videos on youtube on the Moodna creek flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 There are many impressive Irene related videos on YouTube, I've been searching them all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 greetings friends to the north, how goes it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Today's 12Z ECMWF and now the 18Z GFS beginning to suggest one or more snow threats in the pre-Christmas eve through Christmas day timeframe. While differences remain with respect to timing and even which shortwaves the models are focusing on, there is at least some potential. CIPS analogue guidance using the today's 12Z GFS was suggesting 01/21/1990 as a possible analogue, even though the GFS was depicting no snow at all from the threat. Now the 18Z came in quite a bit quicker with the timing of the key shortwave, with the trough just deep enough accompanied by sufficient moisture return off the Atlantic to allow for (a fairly modest) Miller B type coastal development. This is a fast moving shortwave that very rapidly develops a negative tilt over the lower Great Lakes. What we want to see in future runs is the shortwave just slightly further south and better consolidated, and possibly get the initial clipper disturbance to track south of the western NY/Canadian border OR have slightly greater baroclinicty to the south along the triple point as to allow a more rapid energy transfer to the coastal low. I'm certainly not forecasting this to occur at this point, as such an outcome would require a very specific and well-timed interaction of a series of shortwaves in the Gulf of Alaska, as well as the shortwave currently off the coast of the Pac NW, but at this point I would like to note that it IS a possibility. That, and I'm hoping for it as I'll be in Albany for Christmas and the first week in Jan Here is today's 18Z GFS at 138 hrs: Possible analogue storm, 01/21/1990 and resulting snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 No it did not get that high. It was just the speed of the water that cut the embankment down. There was some videos on youtube on the Moodna creek flooding. I took quite a few pics of the Moodna when I went to check on my folks place in Highland MIlls.. It could of passed for the Colorado river right alongside rt.32.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Three shots of winter precip this week with one on Christmas Eve night in OKX's forecast, at least we have something to track. The snow shot on 12/24 would be a nice touch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Three shots of winter precip this week with one on Christmas Eve night in OKX's forecast, at least we have something to track. The snow shot on 12/24 would be a nice touch I don't need a big storm on 12/24, just some snow falling would be fine. And with things to track now this thread may reach the 1000 post limit by the end of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The first threat (Thu night / Fri ) looking like a sheared mess on GFS right now. That said, surface looks cold, so any -SN that falls should stick. The second threat, while much more consolidated at the surface and better organized at 500 mb, brings in some warm air at the low levels, but looks to end as a brief period of +SN. Lets see what the GEFS and ECMWF have to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The first threat (Thu night / Fri ) looking like a sheared mess on GFS right now. That said, surface looks cold, so any -SN that falls should stick. The second threat, while much more consolidated at the surface and better organized at 500 mb, brings in some warm air at the low levels, but looks to end as a brief period of +SN. Lets see what the GEFS and ECMWF have to say... Thank you for your thoughts, much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z ECM gives us a nice blanket of snowfall for Christmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 When a model does this in back to back runs, you just have to 0Z 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 "the clouds were pristine examples of "Kelvin-Helmholtz waves." Whether seen in the sky or in the ocean, this type of turbulence always forms when a fast-moving layer of fluid slides on top of a slower, thicker layer, dragging its surface." http://www.livescience.com/17545-giant-tsunami-shape-clouds-roll-alabama-sky.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS...oh boy...... Those cloud formations...awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looking more and more likely that a few areas, especially the higher terrain, could pick up an inch or two Thu night. Surface temps are a bit warm in the valley, so it probably won't stick well there. The Christmas day event is still completely up in the air. Could be a mixed precip event as advertised by the CMC, a good snowstorm per the EURO, or out to sea as shown in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I read a thread in the NYC forum talking about the Boxing day storm last year, AKA the numerous initialization errors disregard the GFS and NAM blizzard runs storm I thought it might be fun to read our thread from back then. That storm was a lot of fun to watch unfold. Unlike Snowcane or the Halloween cement storm which caused lots of hardship around here, this was a windblown powder dream after 9pm imby http://www.americanw...post__p__165957 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I read a thread in the NYC forum talking about the Boxing day storm last year, AKA the numerous initialization errors disregard the GFS and NAM blizzard runs storm I thought it might be fun to read our thread from back then. That storm was a lot of fun to watch unfold. Unlike Snowcane or the Halloween cement storm which caused lots of hardship around here, this was a windblown power dream after 9pm imby http://www.americanw...post__p__165957 I'm with you, of the those three storms that you mentioned I liked the Boxing Day the best. I love powder snow like that and the drifting was awesome for days after that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z, 6z, & now 12z NAM have continued a snowy theme for the area thurs night- fri morning.. 3-4" a distinct possibility per the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z, 6z, & now 12z NAM have continued a snowy theme for the area thurs night- fri morning.. 3-4" a distinct possibility per the NAM.. IMO, we still ahve some work to do to see snow around here, hopefully the trend becomes our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 IMO, we still ahve some work to do to see snow around here, hopefully the trend becomes our friend. yeah especially after last event I will remain highly skeptical until I actually see flakes falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Normally, a storm that takes the forecast track would produce a snowstorm in this area. However, temp has a long way to go before any snow can fall here...currently 47.3/42.1 and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 A few flakes at the very end is about the best maybe around Saugerties/Kingston... But take a drive out 23A to Tannersville. I lived 15 minutes down the mountain in Saugerties (still own a rental house there) and used to like to drive up to North Lake to x country ski in another world there. The most incredible time was 4/1/97 when we got 8 inches of slop and North Lake had three feet and it was powdery. Normally, a storm that takes the forecast track on the 18z NAM/GFS would produce a snowstorm in this area. However, temp has a long way to go before any snow can fall here...currently 47.3/42.1 and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'm with you, of the those three storms that you mentioned I liked the Boxing Day the best. I love powder snow like that and the drifting was awesome for days after that storm. Yes the drifts and wind were fantastic, the wind chill made it painful to be outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Normally, a storm that takes the forecast track would produce a snowstorm in this area. However, temp has a long way to go before any snow can fall here...currently 47.3/42.1 and falling. Most places south of the canadian border are above freezing! Pretty pathetic for late Dec in the northeast.. 43.5/37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yep... 38/35 here now. Gonna have to hope dynamics from above (i.e. melted snow flakes) can cool the temps to 32. It might happen here at my elevation after midnight. It's not like we have any low level cold air to draw down. Most places south of the canadian border are above freezing! Pretty pathetic for late Dec in the northeast.. 43.5/37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yep... 38/35 here now. Gonna have to hope dynamics from above (i.e. melted snow flakes) can cool the temps to 32. It might happen here at my elevation after midnight. It's not like we have any low level cold air to draw down. Rick, How did you make out last night? Didn't look good for the HV at all.. Obviously nothing this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Nothing...34 with -RN as it ended. 35 and blustery and barren out there now.... You needed at least 1800" anywhere in NY State below the Mohawk as far as I can tell. I saw 1 to 2 inches reported in high parts of the Catskills. I guess the next hope for mood flakes would be the trough passage late on Xmas Day or evening. Rick, How did you make out last night? Didn't look good for the HV at all.. Obviously nothing this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Nothing...34 with -RN as it ended. 35 and blustery and barren out there now.... You needed at least 1800" anywhere in NY State below the Mohawk as far as I can tell. I saw 1 to 2 inches reported in high parts of the Catskills. I guess the next hope for mood flakes would be the trough passage late on Xmas Day or evening. We will see, would be nice to see a few flakes in the air for sure.. I am off to Stowe, VT on Tuesday, so I am keeping a close eye on the system that could impact that area on Tuesday night. Looks like some good potential for the dacks and green mountains. I think the valley will torch again though unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 I just weed whacked part of my yard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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