snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z NAM gives western parts of the HV 6-8" with more in higher elevations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12Z NAM The KSWF sounding show the column is too warm until the last few hours of the storm to support snow, Waiting on the GFS. 58F @ 11:25 am 12-6-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12Z NAM The KSWF sounding show the column is too warm until the last few hours of the storm to support snow, Waiting on the GFS. 58F @ 11:25 am 12-6-11 This is gonna be strictly a longitude event.. 12z NAM soundings for MGJ show 10" smh.. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kmgj.txt EDIT: Also prints out around 9" for SWF.. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kswf.txt Bottomline is the further west you are the more snow your probably gonna receive ( elevation being the exception) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is gonna be strictly a longitude event.. 12z NAM soundings for MGJ show 10" smh.. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kmgj.txt EDIT: Also prints out around 9" for SWF.. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kswf.txt Bottomline is the further west you are the more snow your probably gonna receive ( elevation being the exception) You have the best shot here I think for the reasons already stated. My elevation, or lack there of, I have a feeling will hurt me again. While I'm further north I'm also further east, so that factors in as well IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/1STCALL.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 BTW... I like the topic.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The new Euro wastes the first half of the storm as rain in your area, but it would turn to a thump of snow as the deformation sets up west of the low. Probably .5" at least falls as snow in Middletown in that several hour period late tomorrow night. Basically the sweet band of heaviest snowfall on the Euro is from the Poconos or Port Jervis North Northeast through the southern/central/eastern Catskills, northwestern Mid Hudson Valley and Capital District as far up as Saratoga ......thence north-northeast into Vermont. Taconics and the Northwest Berkshires also still in the best...but most of western Mass now a little too far east for optimum. BTW... I like the topic.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The new Euro wastes the first half of the storm as rain in your area, but it would turn to a thump of snow as the deformation sets up west of the low. Probably .5" at least falls as snow in Middletown in that several hour period late tomorrow night. Basically the sweet band of heaviest snowfall on the Euro is from the Poconos or Port Jervis North Northeast through the southern/central/eastern Catskills, northwestern Mid Hudson Valley and Capital District as far up as Saratoga ......thence north-northeast into Vermont. Taconics and the Northwest Berkshires also still in the best...but most of western Mass now a little too far east for optimum. Judging by the wunderground euro clown maps it drops around 5" in the western part of O.C.. But if the Euro has any say.. Monticello/Liberty/over towards NW Ulster are gonna get hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 BTW... I like the topic.. lol I thought that you might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If I had to make a call right now.. I would go with 3-6".. 3" along the Hudson with 6" along the Shawangunk Ridge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I thought that you might Looking more and more like an interior winter.. It seems like forever where we potentially cash in on snow while the coast complains about too much rain etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looking more and more like an interior winter.. It seems like forever where we potentially cash in on snow while the coast complains about too much rain etc. etc. It seems like it because it has been forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 From this evenings disco out of OKX OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW DROP TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...WITH ONLY ISOLATED AREAS IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DROPPING BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 A little nervewracking on the edge here in Millbrook. I was feeling good yesterday, plenty of QPF and just cold enough, but now I'm not confident in anything more than a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 12Z NAM The KSWF sounding show the column is too warm until the last few hours of the storm to support snow, Waiting on the GFS. 58F @ 11:25 am 12-6-11 Looking at the differences in the 12Z NAM sounding from mgj and swf which are about 9 or so miles apart east to west as the crow flies, it suggests a “battle zone” and I use that term loosely lol. I think the eastern part of the county sees some flakes in the early AM hours with little to no accum except non paved surfaces which will see a touch and the western part that might see around 2-3 inches. The wind might be the news story when she winds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 41.8/40. .38 so far. Not looking for much if any accumulation here. May take a ride up 9w to storm king later tonight to check conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 41.8/40. .38 so far. Not looking for much if any accumulation here. May take a ride up 9w to storm king later tonight to check conditions. Storm King should be interesting tonight... Post pics! I was thinking about taking a 15 min drive to the Shawangunk Ridge to see conditions up there. Too bad there isnt a road up to the summit of Schnemunk Mtn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Storm King should be interesting tonight... Post pics! I was thinking about taking a 15 min drive to the Shawangunk Ridge to see conditions up there. Too bad there isnt a road up to the summit of Schnemunk Mtn.. If I go will definitely post some pics. Yeah, that sucks that there isn't a road up Schnemunk Mtn. Only way is to hike. The trail head is only a mile from my house. I am right at the most northern base of the Schnemunk Mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Storm King should be interesting tonight... Post pics! I was thinking about taking a 15 min drive to the Shawangunk Ridge to see conditions up there. Too bad there isnt a road up to the summit of Schnemunk Mtn.. From what I heard Storm King was a disaster back in October, as you can imagine. What didn't help in that storm was that Army had a home game that day so you had more people than normal trying to get over and around the mountain. The Hollandar Center was filling up fast with people stranded that Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If I go will definitely post some pics. Yeah, that sucks that there isn't a road up Schnemunk Mtn. Only way is to hike. The trail head is only a mile from my house. I am right at the most northern base of the Schnemunk Mtn. I believe Schnemunk is the highest pt in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 From what I heard Storm King was a disaster back in October, as you can imagine. What didn't help in that storm was that Army had a home game that day so you had more people than normal trying to get over and around the mountain. The Hollandar Center was filling up fast with people stranded that Saturday night. I remember seeing a bunch of stranded cars on the side of rt 6 the next day.. Must of been a disaster up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm in New Paltz right now. Really expecting only 2-4" at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm in New Paltz right now. Really expecting only 2-4" at most. New Paltz has very little elevation. I would say 2-4" is about right. Im sure if you drive 15-20 mins to your west it would be a different story.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I believe Schnemunk is the highest pt in the county. Yes it is 1,664' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes it is 1,664' What are you doing posting? Shouldn't you be starting your hike to the top in daylight to get us some obs and photos tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What are you doing posting? Shouldn't you be starting your hike to the top in daylight to get us some obs and photos tonight? lol.. Thats right get goin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Its now snowing in Ithaca, temperature 33-35, dew point 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 39.8/39 now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What are you doing posting? Shouldn't you be starting your hike to the top in daylight to get us some obs and photos tonight? Lol. Being the accident prone individual I am....I doubt I would make it a 1/4 of the way up without something happening to me. Now if I had a quad....that would be a different story. 41.9/40 here. .46" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 39.8/39 now.. Snow should begin later tonight after midnight, you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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