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The Hudson Valley Thread


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I know that this may sound like a broken record but waking up to a forecast from NWS Upton for 10-14" of snow on Oct 29 is mind boggling!

and this tid bit in their forecast Today: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible.

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Most models take the heaviest banding to you about me and it craps out anywhere n/w of here. So only time will tell. It's gonna be a very sharp cutoff from the heavy accumulations to the zones that just get a few inches in central and northern NY.

The clouds thickened here just in time to not allow much rise in temperature so far. 30/27 with every blade of grass covered in thick frost, maybe 1/3rd of the ground still retaining some snow from Thursday nights action.

and this tid bit in their forecast Today: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible.

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Yeah, I'm pretty concerned about the very sharp cutoff... could be an underperformer IMBY ala 12/26.

Headed to the Palace in Albany tonight for a concert. Should prove to be an interesting ride, particularly on the way home. You know how 88 gets with these types of storms. It's a snow magnet . :scooter:

Most models take the heaviest banding to you about me and it craps out anywhere n/w of here. So only time will tell. It's gonna be a very sharp cutoff from the heavy accumulations to the zones that just get a few inches in central and northern NY.

The clouds thickened here just in time to not allow much rise in temperature so far. 30/27 with every blade of grass covered in thick frost, maybe 1/3rd of the ground still retaining some snow from Thursday nights action.

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ALB is still on the 1" qpf line as per the new 12Z NAM. Duanesburg nearer the .75", Amsterdam .5", Northville/Sacandaga maybe .25" and so on......

So a nice snowstorm if that verifies, but no margin for error.

It could get kind of exciting as the mega band heads north to just about here for awhile..looks like it may come in like a wall of heavy snow from the south and then do the pivot and exit stage right leaving us with lighter banding.

Good luck driving in metro ALB. They drive like they never saw snow before it seems ...just the other day cars off the road in that small snowfall. Mainly it's stupid people that refuse to alter their speed etc., but you could get caught in the crossfire so to speak.

Yeah, I'm pretty concerned about the very sharp cutoff... could be an underperformer IMBY ala 12/26.

Headed to the Palace in Albany tonight for a concert. Should prove to be an interesting ride, particularly on the way home. You know how 88 gets with these types of storms. It's a snow magnet . :scooter:

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BTW..I only got 7 inches on Boxing Day...I was thinking of a January storm. I expect tonight's does look very similar, but you don't look at that as a low end snowfall for October 29th...

Yeah, I'm pretty concerned about the very sharp cutoff... could be an underperformer IMBY ala 12/26.

Headed to the Palace in Albany tonight for a concert. Should prove to be an interesting ride, particularly on the way home. You know how 88 gets with these types of storms. It's a snow magnet . :scooter:

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I think low-end performer and October snow are oxymorons. :rolleyes: Regardless of who gets what, we'll be referencing this event for decades.

BTW..I only got 7 inches on Boxing Day...I was thinking of a January storm. I expect tonight's does look very similar, but you don't look at that as a low end snowfall for October 29th...

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It seemed the first few storms last winter had our area precariously close to the heavy stuff, just to have it pivot from the immediate ALB/Hudson Valley areas on east. Forgetting about the unusual early season snow for a brief moment, I don't remember last time an October day felt this cold. About 2 inches the other day...and today/tonight should make this the snowiest october in the 16+ years I've beeni n Upstate NY.

Yeah, I'm pretty concerned about the very sharp cutoff... could be an underperformer IMBY ala 12/26.

Headed to the Palace in Albany tonight for a concert. Should prove to be an interesting ride, particularly on the way home. You know how 88 gets with these types of storms. It's a snow magnet . :scooter:

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10:40 am KALY discussion update:

WE STILL BELIEVE THE ADJUSTMENT TO 3 TO 6 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 6-12 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 12Z NAM TOTAL QPF FOR KALB IS 0.70 INCHES...AND THE 09Z SREF MEAN IS ABOUT 1".

ALB is still on the 1" qpf line as per the new 12Z NAM. Duanesburg nearer the .75", Amsterdam .5", Northville/Sacandaga maybe .25" and so on......

So a nice snowstorm if that verifies, but no margin for error.

It could get kind of exciting as the mega band heads north to just about here for awhile..looks like it may come in like a wall of heavy snow from the south and then do the pivot and exit stage right leaving us with lighter banding.

Good luck driving in metro ALB. They drive like they never saw snow before it seems ...just the other day cars off the road in that small snowfall. Mainly it's stupid people that refuse to alter their speed etc., but you could get caught in the crossfire so to speak.

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Most models take the heaviest banding to you about me and it craps out anywhere n/w of here. So only time will tell. It's gonna be a very sharp cutoff from the heavy accumulations to the zones that just get a few inches in central and northern NY.

The clouds thickened here just in time to not allow much rise in temperature so far. 30/27 with every blade of grass covered in thick frost, maybe 1/3rd of the ground still retaining some snow from Thursday nights action.

Temp have risen 2 degrees since 7am now @ 39F. Not a good trend when the wind direction is from the NE with no cold around. The storm has to crank like crazy here to drop temps, we'll see what happens.

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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/29/11 1543Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1515Z HANNA . LOCATION...NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND... . ATTN WFOS...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...OHRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY SNOW . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT INTENSE VORTICITY CENTER/SHORTWAVE TROF HAS DROPPED INTO BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROF AND HAS NOW BEGUN LIFTING NE INTO S WV/W VA. BACKING AND HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS AND CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON CLASSIC COMMA HEAD WITH MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED VORTICITY CENTER/JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND PUSH OVER THE DCA AREA AND TOWARDS S NJ BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE BEST COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL PA ENE TOWARDS E CNTRL PA AND INTO N NJ/S NY AND THE CATSKILLS REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE TO SIX HOURS. BELIEVE SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1.0-2.0"/HR WITH THOSE TYPES OF RATES MOST COMMON IN ANY FRONTOGENETICALLY ENHANCED WSW/ENE ORIENTED BANDS. CURRENTLY, THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE BANDS APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED FROM JUST N OF JST ENE TO VIC OF UNV AND THEN ENE TOWARDS VIC OF AVP.

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