snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 so i guess I can be a part of this crew now too? Thanks for the invite SNYC I feel like New England forum is too E and NE of me while NYC metro is full of Long Island and NYC metro weenies with too many roller coaster rides lol . Your area fits in best with the HV.. We have posters from Putnam & Dutchess which is a rocks throw from your location. That NYC forum is full of weenies and very few voices of reason. Now that your far from the coastal climate your gonna see a huge difference in borderline events such as this one. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Someone asked me earlier how much snow I think orange county will receive. I told them I am hesitant to make a guess as a strong nor’easter type snowstorm in October is uncharted territory lol. This is a tuff storm to analyze. We can’t use normal winter qpf/snow EQ formulas its october for petes sake, the snow fall guidance maps which are overly enthusiastic in the dead of winter are of no use in October, we haven’t had any real cold air this fall in the Valley, there is no legit cold air source around now however there is border line cool enough air, the ground is still warm as is the column and the snow from this storm deeply depends on dynamics that may or may not evolve as modeled. If this was winter and the column was cold with a good cold air source around, it’d be a slam dunk 8-12+ snow but this time of year, who knows….. maybe a few inches of snow on the non-paved surfaces would be the result of what may look like a heavy snow fall rate/windy snow storm. I do plan on enjoying watch it unfold regardless. Besides what’s not to like about snow on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 so i guess I can be a part of this crew now too? Thanks for the invite SNYC I feel like New England forum is too E and NE of me while NYC metro is full of Long Island and NYC metro weenies with too many roller coaster rides lol . im like in no man's land here..... the more the merrier ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 so i guess I can be a part of this crew now too? Thanks for the invite SNYC I feel like New England forum is too E and NE of me while NYC metro is full of Long Island and NYC metro weenies with too many roller coaster rides lol . im like in no man's land here..... Welcome aboard! Someone asked me earlier how much snow I think orange county will receive. I told them I am hesitant to make a guess as a strong nor’easter type snowstorm in October is uncharted territory lol. This is a tuff storm to analyze. We can’t use normal winter qpf/snow EQ formulas its october for petes sake, the snow fall guidance maps which are overly enthusiastic in the dead of winter are of no use in October, we haven’t had any real cold air this fall in the Valley, there is no legit cold air source around now however there is border line cool enough air, the ground is still warm as is the column and the snow from this storm deeply depends on dynamics that may or may not evolve as modeled. If this was winter and the column was cold with a good cold air source around, it’d be a slam dunk 8-12+ snow but this time of year, who knows….. maybe a few inches of snow on the non-paved surfaces would be the result of what may look like a heavy snow fall rate/windy snow storm. I do plan on enjoying watch it unfold regardless. Besides what’s not to like about snow on the weekend. Yeah, there will be a wide array of accumulations around here I believe, which was the case in the Oct 87 storm, and April Fools Storm in the mid 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 9z SREF is on board. Very impressive 12hr mean snowfall accumulation over the HV area. Enjoy the storm guys! A lot of us from the MW will be lurking around and experiencing this storm vicariously through you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Your area fits in best with the HV.. We have posters from Putnam & Dutchess which is a rocks throw from your location. That NYC forum is full of weenies and very few voices of reason. Now that your far from the coastal climate your gonna see a huge difference in borderline events such as this one. Enjoy! ty sir. looking forward to it, and many more. i think last year or two years ago, when I lived in CNJ, i was on my way up 684 to Danbury during a marginal event and as i got past exit 5/6, there was the rain/snow line. now, it was prob just that specific event where the R/S line was but I did notice there a difference of climo between the beginning of 684 and the end. really interesting and looking forward to learning more about the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 9z SREF is on board. Very impressive 12hr mean snowfall accumulation over the HV area. Enjoy the storm guys! A lot of us from the MW will be lurking around and experiencing this storm vicariously through you guys. Thanks. We'll do our best to keep the thread busy with observations for you guys too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, there will be a wide array of accumulations around here I believe, which was the case in the Oct 87 storm, and April Fools Storm in the mid 90's. Last night was a good example of this. Without soild cold air the snowfall mix ratio and intensity varied greatly from town to town. Heaviest was thruway/harriman/monroe area (what else is new) . As I drove west it mixed more with rain until I reached chester and it was mostly rain and then back to rain/snow mix in goshen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1204 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...AN EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM IS LIKELY FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT... NJZ002-NYZ067-290015- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0007.111029T1000Z-111030T0600Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE- 1204 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO FALLING TREE LIMBS LADEN WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I was just looking over some of the 12Z GFS data and this is for after the storm but I was surprised at how cold it's projecting early next week to be, lows in the low to mid teens, brrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I still cant believe we are gonna have a full fledged snowstorm a few days before Halloween... smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Last night was a good example of this. Without soild cold air the snowfall mix ratio and intensity varied greatly from town to town. Heaviest was thruway/harriman/monroe area (what else is new) . As I drove west it mixed more with rain until I reached chester and it was mostly rain and then back to rain/snow mix in goshen. Elevation really didnt have a factor in the snow yesterday.. I was on Mountain Rd in Greenville (1200') and it mostly rain while down by me it was 50/50 Ra/Sn. It was strictly intensity driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ty sir. looking forward to it, and many more. i think last year or two years ago, when I lived in CNJ, i was on my way up 684 to Danbury during a marginal event and as i got past exit 5/6, there was the rain/snow line. now, it was prob just that specific event where the R/S line was but I did notice there a difference of climo between the beginning of 684 and the end. really interesting and looking forward to learning more about the area. Ask away.. Plenty of guys/gals in this thread who know tons about our local climate. You will notice over time that we have tons of microclimates. If you are north of 287 chances are you escape the dreaded R/S line but there are times like tomorrow where elevation will be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 9z SREF is on board. Very impressive 12hr mean snowfall accumulation over the HV area. Enjoy the storm guys! A lot of us from the MW will be lurking around and experiencing this storm vicariously through you guys. Whats good is that most of us love posting pics! So stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Upton really slow in issuing WSW for their upper zones. Albany, Mt Holly, and Taunton notified their public already... edit: ok, they are on board now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319834360[/url]' post='1072962']Elevation really didnt have a factor in the snow yesterday.. I was on Mountain Rd in Greenville (1200') and it mostly rain while down by me it was 50/50 Ra/Sn. It was strictly intensity driven. Exactly, if it doesn't get cranking tomorrow we might have ptype problems. Upton is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So who is pumped for our first major snowstorm tomorrow? :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So who is pumped for our first major snowstorm tomorrow? :snowman: Crazy stuff isn't it? I just got home, going to eat and then to the garage to pull out the snow blower and make sure it's GTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So who is pumped for our first major snowstorm tomorrow? :snowman: I'm pumped for the snow. Not so much for the potential tree damage and power outages. But I still can't believe that this is happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm pumped for the snow. Not so much for the potential tree damage and power outages. But I still can't believe that this is happening! I just hope this thread doesnt go quiet cause of all the possible power outages.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 My generator is good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We may see snowfall rates few have witnessed.. Thats the positive of having this come in Oct. Ocean waters are almost tropical out there near the benchmark and thats something we rarely have in the middle of the winter. I have a feeling the CCB is gonna park overheard and just dump!! THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. 700MB LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR OR RIGHT OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND. 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND TOTAL DEFORMATION AXES ALIGN WITH A TIGHTENING 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM A LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND NORTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY THROUGH PASSAIC COUNTY. APPROXIMATELY 25-50 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ENHANCED LIFT FOR BANDED SNOWFALL...WHICH CUTS THROUGH OUR NW ZONES. THIS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN OMEGA VALUES OF UP TO AROUND 40 MICROBARS PER SECOND ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. Hello Orange County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I just hope this thread doesnt go quiet cause of all the possible power outages.. Best thing I got was this Android phone I'm posting from now. I will be posting.......power or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow! This gonna be some ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 And I thought I have seen it all these past 2 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow! This gonna be some ride. Buckle up everyone!! I have a feeling we will be hearing a lot of limbs snapping and transformers popping. Be safe. 18z NAM and GFS is spitting out 1.75" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This may be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nice to see another oldie who can remember 10/4 1987. LOL I was from Saugerties, but attending school at U. Albany and that was the freak snow event of all time. This isn't anywhere near as freakish because it's close to four weeks later. Very easy for me to remember-I got married the day before. Tried getting out of Dutchess around 8am to go to JFK-it was a nightmare. By the time the snow was all done-there was 11 inches of wet snow on the ground. I distinctly remember the rain/snow line at Route 301 and Rt.9-from there south it was all rain and just wet roads. Had the FIL cut down 12 trees in our home we'd closed on 3 days before just to get to the front door of the house. Course while on Key West-we got hit with Hurricane Floyd-2 major events in 9 days-priceless. This very well could leave the county a mess for days again. Leaves have come off the trees-but not enough to prevent limbs from coming down. I just hope the camper doesn't sustain more damage-Feb 2010 did enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 36.3/30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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