IrishRob17 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA MAINE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER PORTIONS OF VT/NY/PA AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NY/PA/NJ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA MAINE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER PORTIONS OF VT/NY/PA AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NY/PA/NJ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035. Game on Rob. Pretty impressive numbers as in SBCAPE and SBLift index. Will see where the fun sets up soon. Nice cluster out in Pa. looks like it might slide just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Game on Rob. Pretty impressive numbers as in SBCAPE and SBLift index. Will see where the fun sets up soon. Nice cluster out in Pa. looks like it might slide just to our south. Yeah, I've been watching that cluster. The first storm started far enough north that it looked like it would move right through the central part of Orange County but it died off as another storm popped up further south. it sure feels nasty out there now with the Dp in the low 70's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Things started ramping up 1 hour ago, the cell NW of Monticello is intensifying quickly could be the first supercell of the day. Movement of the cells has been a bit eradic - due east then either NE or SE then NNE or SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Various hail reports from the public in the Sully cell have hail up to 2 inches in size. A hail report from the Claryville FD said largest hail was .75. The cells that were along the southern tier of NYS and in northern PA that were moving due east veered NNE (NYS Storm) and SSE (PA storm) as they approached Monticello and Wilkes Barre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Various hail reports from the public in the Sully cell have hail up to 2 inches in size. A hail report from the Claryville FD said largest hail was .75. The cells that were along the southern tier of NYS and in northern PA that were moving due east veered NNE (NYS Storm) and SSE (PA storm) as they approached Monticello and Wilkes Barre Are you getting the feeling now also that we will be left out of the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Are you getting the feeling now also that we will be left out of the action? yes, over eastern sullivan, ne pa, northen jersey, and Orange Co. Best dymanics may be gone now and pushed NE. Just explosive stuff going on east of ALB in Mass, NH and VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...SRN VT...MA...CT...RI...SE NY...NY CITY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...413... VALID 012017Z - 012145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411...413...CONTINUES. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 411 AND 413 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING FROM NRN MAINE SWD ACROSS THE WRN PART OF MAINE ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS AREA IS LOCATED TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IN AN AREA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE WSR-88D VWP AT PORTLAND MAINE HAS A 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2. THIS IS CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE ACROSS THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CNTRL MAINE...TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL VERY INTENSE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MA AND NRN CT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A MAX OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL OF THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 What a different a day makes. The wind is very gusty at times. Feels more like a March than June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Good show on NatGeo Channel this month, some fantastic video of the tornado outbreaks this spring. April 2011 was the most violent month of tornados on record, and the deadliest in modern times. The 'super outbreak' of April 26-27 alone involved more than a hundred separate twisters, killing over 300 people and cutting a swath of destruction across the south. Using dozens of amateur and professional sources, Witness tells the story of this once-in-a-century event, as captured by those who lived through it. Read more: http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/series/witness/7051/Overview22#ixzz1OaNtogFo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Good show on NatGeo Channel this month, some fantastic video of the tornado outbreaks this spring. April 2011 was the most violent month of tornados on record, and the deadliest in modern times. The 'super outbreak' of April 26-27 alone involved more than a hundred separate twisters, killing over 300 people and cutting a swath of destruction across the south. Using dozens of amateur and professional sources, Witness tells the story of this once-in-a-century event, as captured by those who lived through it. Read more: http://channel.natio...2#ixzz1OaNtogFo I caught that show as well as one which Discovery threw together, both had some amazing footage. The Discovery show had some of the Storm Chasers on it so when that show comes back on I'm guessing that they will have some wild/scary/interesting video as well. I actually watched the Springfield tornado live last week, stumbled into it thanks to a link in the New England thread, on the website for the TV station there that had the roof cam footage of it crossing the river. I couldn't believe that I was watching it live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 30% wind and hail for the entire valley today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 A heat index of 96 in Montgomery at 11am......yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA / CNTRL-SERN NY / FAR NWRN NJ / SRN VT / WRN MA / NWRN CT CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 091533Z - 091630Z A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE FROM SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK--DRIVEN BY A MORE PROBABLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT--WILL BE FORTHCOMING AT THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE. ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED. ..SMITH.. 06/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 The air certainly is juicy enough out there today, wow. Heat index up to 98 in Montgomery. I'm hoping to get a little rain, everything is bone dry after this little dry spell we've had for the past couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The air certainly is juicy enough out there today, wow. Heat index up to 98 in Montgomery. I'm hoping to get a little rain, everything is bone dry after this little dry spell we've had for the past couple of weeks. We have a decent chance for some weather today, which I predict will hit as I am on the thruway My grass stoped growing this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Wow, could be a big day for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The storm west of BGM looks to have a nice hail core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 1.75 inch hail reported around BGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 I'm sure you saw that we have a Watch now till 10pm, keep the eye in the sky shots coming as needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Gotta good feeling about this later today. We certainly could use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Gotta good feeling about this later today. We certainly could use the rain. Looks like a new storm is popping up near Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looks like a new storm is popping up near Middletown. Looks like Scotchtown is getting hit. Looks like the discrete cells will be moving E/NE out ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looks like Scotchtown is getting hit. Looks like the discrete cells will be moving E/NE out ahead of the main line. I can see some of the top of that storm, it's racing upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Elapsed time from the first screen shot to the second, 15 minutes... WOW! It formed there, it did not come from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Now thats what I call rapid development. Hope it builds a bit to the south so I can get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 strong hail sig in that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 Now thats what I call rapid development. Hope it builds a bit to the south so I can get in on the action. It's still building.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The Orange cell developed a training cell behind it. MGJ getting a double hit of hail. Like the last event, the storms long the southern tier are moving SE and the storms from Sullivan on east are moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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