40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Why are folks even looking at the 18z GFS for day 8-9 threat.....who cares what it had. I mean, have a gander for the sake of curiosity, but it shouldn't be the source of angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Why are folks even looking at the 18z GFS for day 8-9 threat.....who cares what it had. I mean, have a gander for the sake of curiosity, but it shouldn't be the source of angst. The 18z DGEX gave us 2-4" from the clipper. That should relax everyone's fears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The 18z DGEX gave us 2-4" from the clipper. That should relax everyone's fears. Heavy heavy brews, food and weenieing tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Heavy heavy brews, food and weenieing tmw. And reviewing the storms that downsloped Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I think there are signs of the Pacific becoming a little more hostile. The models , while wavering a bit, have trended to raise heights across the US. I think even though some are cursing this block...it may very well be the life savior down the road. Who knows, maybe it won't be all the strong and we are stuck in an icebox for the rest of the month, but the GOA trough does get pretty strong on all models. All is not bad, because me thinks storm chances may arise from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 And reviewing the storms that downsloped Tolland. And discussing screwjobs living on the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Some flurries coming down. Radar shows precip coming in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I think there are signs of the Pacific becoming a little more hostile. The models , while wavering a bit, have trended to raise heights across the US. I think even though some are cursing this block...it may very well be the life savior down the road. Who knows, maybe it won't be all the strong and we are stuck in an icebox for the rest of the month, but the GOA trough does get pretty strong on all models. All is not bad, because me thinks storm chances may arise from it. Dec 1970 was a classic example of a pretty potent GOA low with a -NAO...the NAO kept New England quite cold, and ofc ourse it was very snowy. You can see how the -NAO that month was a bit more east based which drives the colder anomalies to SE Canada/NE...esp in conjunction with a hostile pacific. That month also had the ridging up through Kamchatka and Bering Straight area like this month looks to have...to help keep good cold in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 And discussing screwjobs living on the coastal plain The only storm that screwed me was 12/92. I'm talking big snowstorm type deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Dec 1970 was a classic example of a pretty potent GOA low with a -NAO...the NAO kept New England quite cold, and ofc ourse it was very snowy. You can see how the -NAO that month was a bit more east based which drives the colder anomalies to SE Canada/NE...esp in conjunction with a hostile pacific. That month also had the ridging up through Kamchatka and Bering Straight area like this month looks to have...to help keep good cold in Canada. That's very similar to what's being depicted, don't you think? I'm not trying to hint at a torch...I just mean we may be thanking that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 That's very similar to what's being depicted, don't you think? I'm not trying to hint at a torch...I just mean we may be thanking that block. Yeah its quite similar...1970 has been in the ensemble analog guidance many times already. I knew you weren't saying torch...I was just posting agreeing how the -NAO can be a good thing...esp when you start getting an uglier Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 And yes, having this just a little east may help...but not too far east so that we can't benefit from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yeah its quite similar...1970 has been in the ensemble analog guidance many times already. I knew you weren't saying torch...I was just posting agreeing how the -NAO can be a good thing...esp when you start getting an uglier Pacific. Yeah that year has been flagged numerous times. As frustrating as it is...I don't mind the postponement for storms. The extra 2 weeks in December really helps out for us coastal folk in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 That is a classic east based -NAO! Doesn't get any better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The only storm that screwed me was 12/92. I'm talking big snowstorm type deals. storm of century .......10 inches washed down drain....while interior finishes with deep snow pack......down to S gulf coast states.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yeah that year has been flagged numerous times. As frustrating as it is...I don't mind the postponement for storms. The extra 2 weeks in December really helps out for us coastal folk in general. I'm glad it looks like the pattern will remain favorable out to the foreseeable future. I know we thought it would be cold with chances the first ten days of the month, but we weren't sure about beyond that...but now it looks like a pretty good pattern for the middle of the month too. Hopefully the weeklies are correct and we see the good setup continue through New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The only storm that screwed me was 12/92. I'm talking big snowstorm type deals. Dec '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 But I do agree for Nova Scotia...you def want it to relax. Well not to be capt. obvious but the block as it stands now, ain't helping you guys either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Well not to be capt. obvious but the block as it stands now, ain't helping you guys either If it was stronger, we'd be getting that retrograde storm about 3 days from now instead of having it go into northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Dec '96. Well at least I saw that coming. I'm looking at the combo of not only getting screwed by a change over, but also a watching a blizzard warning compact to 5" of cement. I at least busted on the + side during the first part of the Dec '96 event with some TSSN to boot. It was pretty frustrating to see Cantore getting a stinger on air with the second part, just 40 miles west of me..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Well not to be capt. obvious but the block as it stands now, ain't helping you guys either I'll still take it with a potential Nina pattern developing and like Will mentioned...we just missed out getting a plowable event if it were just a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The other one that was a disappointment for me was Feb '06. I actually got dryslotted in that, despite getting 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 If it was stronger, we'd be getting that retrograde storm about 3 days from now instead of having it go into northern Maine. True but would it be snow? I have doubts even down your neck of the woods. I mean they're predicting rain even into Montreal. The east based -NAO that you posted the maps for looks much better for everyone involved. JMHO. Allows the cold to flow in and lets storms amplify a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 True but would it be snow? I have doubts even down your neck of the woods. I mean they're predicting rain even into Montreal. The east based -NAO that you posted the maps for looks much better for everyone involved. JMHO. Allows the cold to flow in and lets storms amplify a bit. Well as long as it didn't rip too far west it would be snow. It would be similar to New Years event. The Euro was hinting at this happening a few times, but it just wasn't quite enough of a block to push the vortex further south. Dec 5-6, 1981 saw a similar storm too. It gave most of eastern half of Maine rain while Boston and suburbs got 1-2 feet of snow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1981/us1206.php The east based -NAO I agree tends to be a better pattern for a larger system to amplify rather than relying on retrograde and clipper scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The east based -NAO I agree tends to be a better pattern for a larger system to amplify rather than relying on retrograde and clipper scenarios. will .....do you have any research or stats regarding SNE snowfall with EAST based blocks vs West based - NAO's . I don't hear this discussed much but it seems of significance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I mean forget these retro storms. Give me a pattern that makes a storm track like this and I think we will all be dancing in the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 oh man what i would give for a normal run of the mill swfe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I mean forget these retro storms. Give me a pattern that makes a storm track like this and I think we will all be dancing in the streets. How was the 2004 blizzard up that way?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 oh man what i would give for a normal run of the mill swfe!! 2" of snow to rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 will .....do you have any research or stats regarding SNE snowfall with EAST based blocks vs West based - NAO's . I don't hear this discussed much but it seems of significance.. I don't. I'm not sure there is a substantial difference in snowfall between the two here...but it might be something to research. The east based block just puts the cold in a different spot vs the west based block...but both can be quite favorable for snow. There's way too much emphasis being put on last year WRT west based blocking climo. Feb 1978, Feb 1969, Dec 1961, Mar 2001 are all notable storms just off the top of my head that had big west based blocks that hit SNE hard. West based blocks if they are extreme can produce some weird patterns, and occasionally like at the end of last winter, they can produce a really crap pattern...but there's more at play than just the block. Last year the PAC blocking above the EPO region over toward Asia got strong too in conjunction with the west based block and cut off the cold from the pole...so that was a contributor as well to the rotting airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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