Retrograde Snowstorm by 12/5?

[moneypitmike]

You can't bias against all long range threats, though....this one has climo and ample ensemble support working in favor of it, as well as a favorable regime.

I agree with you, Ray. And, I'm not pessimistic about the propsects for the winter. I have been amused by the perpertual 10-day threat. Like the boy who cried wolf, one of those will come to pass. Better yet, perhaps we'll get a blip unforeseen by the models and have something spin up with little lead time. Now that'll get us all to cool our jets!

32.8/23 off a high of 34.2. Guess it was a bit nippy out there today. I haven't been out except to grab firewood.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree with you, Ray. And, I'm not pessimistic about the propsects for the winter. I have been amused by the perpertual 10-day threat. Like the boy who cried wolf, one of those will come to pass. Better yet, perhaps we'll get a blip unforeseen by the models and have something spin up with little lead time. Now that'll get us all to cool our jets!

32.8/23 off a high of 34.2. Guess it was a bit nippy out there today. I haven't been out except to grab firewood.

There's a legit shot that the 12/12-13 system could cut west of us too. That would be funny to see people's reactions.

I personally think its more favorable for a redeveloper at this point, but given that the NAO block at that time is getting shunted out toward Iceland/UK, its certainly plausible if the trough amps up enough, it could be too far west. The antecedent cold though would probably be enough for snow on the front end even if it did that.

[moneypitmike]

There's a legit shot that the 12/12-13 system could cut west of us too. That would be funny to see people's reactions.

I personally think its more favorable for a redeveloper at this point, but given that the NAO block at that time is getting shunted out toward Iceland/UK, its certainly plausible if the trough amps up enough, it could be too far west. The antecedent cold though would probably be enough for snow on the front end even if it did that.

And a touch of ice.

Think snow.

[CT Rain]

There's a legit shot that the 12/12-13 system could cut west of us too. That would be funny to see people's reactions.

I personally think its more favorable for a redeveloper at this point, but given that the NAO block at that time is getting shunted out toward Iceland/UK, its certainly plausible if the trough amps up enough, it could be too far west. The antecedent cold though would probably be enough for snow on the front end even if it did that.

Debbie downer!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Irregardless...it was measurable

What does irregardless mean?

I've had 0.2" on the season.

[ORH_wxman]

Debbie downer!

There's like a small 0.10% of me thats sick enough to want to see a '99-'00 repeat just to see the reactions on here.

But in all honesty, I really like where we are headed. Even if that event doesn't work out, its not like the pattern turns to crap...at least from our view right now. We had to wait until 12/19 in 2008 to see any real snow. I think its easy to forget how early it is. Probably because we've been talking about the pattern change for 3 weeks...now that its here, people want immediate dividends paid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Kev thinks .1" is significant...

Any chance it could be plowable???

Absolutely.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Possible OES event with potential 850mb temperatures nearing -10C to -12C and a southwest wind over 10-11C water temperatures. However GFS and NAM are at odds of what the wind direction will be from Mon night into Tuesday morning. 21z 12/7 to 15z 12/8 is the timing for this event when I expect the best 700mb moisture and relatively decent sw wind alignment from 850mb to the surface. Also a decent sized lobe of 500mb vorticity rounds the base of the trough coinciding with this time frame.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Bust potential resides in the wind trajectory and surface temperatures. Although this happens during the night which should be a positive.

[Damage In Tolland]

What does irregardless mean?

I've had 0.2" on the season.

Look in Webster's if you're having trouble with English langauge

[weatherwiz]

There's like a small 0.10% of me thats sick enough to want to see a '99-'00 repeat just to see the reactions on here.

But in all honesty, I really like where we are headed. Even if that event doesn't work out, its not like the pattern turns to crap...at least from our view right now. We had to wait until 12/19 in 2008 to see any real snow. I think its easy to forget how early it is. Probably because we've been talking about the pattern change for 3 weeks...now that its here, people want immediate dividends paid.

How much have you had to drink today?

[CT Rain]

There's like a small 0.10% of me thats sick enough to want to see a '99-'00 repeat just to see the reactions on here.

But in all honesty, I really like where we are headed. Even if that event doesn't work out, its not like the pattern turns to crap...at least from our view right now. We had to wait until 12/19 in 2008 to see any real snow. I think its easy to forget how early it is. Probably because we've been talking about the pattern change for 3 weeks...now that its here, people want immediate dividends paid.

I'd say like 2% of me wants that to happen

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree with you, Ray. And, I'm not pessimistic about the propsects for the winter. I have been amused by the perpertual 10-day threat. Like the boy who cried wolf, one of those will come to pass. Better yet, perhaps we'll get a blip unforeseen by the models and have something spin up with little lead time. Now that'll get us all to cool our jets!

32.8/23 off a high of 34.2. Guess it was a bit nippy out there today. I haven't been out except to grab firewood.

That is why you look at teleconnectors and ensemble support FIRST, then take a cursory glance at the long range runs if you'd like....if you allow yourself to be led by OP day 10 determinsitc soloutions, then you are rendering youself susceptible to being mislead by them in the manner that you are.

Look for OP runs to reaffirm potential flagged by ensembles and teleconnectors ( in addition to climo early and late in the season), not vice versa.

This is why I didn't fall for any of those previous faux threats.

Dec 5 was the first threat that was legit IMO, but it didn't happen because sometimes nuances\perturbations within the longwave pattern preclude it, such as the overbearing ULL in this instance.

Taking these precautions will not guarantee that you wil notl be dissapointed because not all potential is realized, but you can salvage your sanity by determining which threats are viable and which aren't.

[SnowMan]

Irregardless...it was measurable

Sometimes I wonder if he thinks before he posts...or if he just tries to get a rise out of people...

[moneypitmike]

Kev thinks .1" is significant...

Any chance it could be plowable???

Plowable is a state of mind.

[Mr Torchey]

There's a legit shot that the 12/12-13 system could cut west of us too. That would be funny to see people's reactions.

I personally think its more favorable for a redeveloper at this point, but given that the NAO block at that time is getting shunted out toward Iceland/UK, its certainly plausible if the trough amps up enough, it could be too far west. The antecedent cold though would probably be enough for snow on the front end even if it did that.

I agree, think the nao relaxes mid month, but I also think it tanks again prior to xmas, what are your thoughts on a relaxation then another good pattern 2nd half of month?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Look in Webster's if you're having trouble with English langauge

You do realize its not a word.

High of 41f today.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree, think the nao relaxes mid month, but I also think it tanks again prior to xmas, what are your thoughts on a relaxation then another good pattern 2nd half of month?

Ensembles and the weeklies don't have it relaxing very long...it builds up into Iceland/UK and then retrogrades back to Greenland fairly quickly and its already back by the 15th.

[Mr Torchey]

Ensembles and the weeklies don't have it relaxing very long...it builds up into Iceland/UK and then retrogrades back to Greenland fairly quickly and its already back by the 15th.

Thanks Will

[40/70 Benchmark]

You do realize its not a word.

High of 41f today.

It is a word; I think the confusion stems from the fact that it is more commonly used in speech than in prose, however it is not incorrect to do so.

[Damage In Tolland]

You do realize its not a word.

High of 41f today.

It is a word just like ain't

Irregardless is a word that many mistakenly believe to be correct usage in formal style, when in fact it is used chiefly in nonstandard speech or casual writing.

[moneypitmike]

It is a word; I think the confusion stems from the fact that it is more commonly used in speech than in prose, however it is not incorrect to do so.

I't may appear in the dictionary, but merely as a reference because people use it. They do so with irregard to the proper use of the language, regardless of the situation.

Now, back to the weather. 32.3/23.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I't may appear in the dictionary, but merely as a reference because people use it. They do so with irregard to the proper use of the language, regardless of the situation.

Now, back to the weather. 32.3/23.

If its in the dictionary, then it is inherently a word and is to be employed as such in my book.

[moneypitmike]

It is a word just like ain't

Irregardless is a word that many mistakenly believe to be correct usage in formal style, when in fact it is used chiefly among those who usually speak in broken-English.

[CoastalWx]

Ensembles and the weeklies don't have it relaxing very long...it builds up into Iceland/UK and then retrogrades back to Greenland fairly quickly and its already back by the 15th.

I'll welcome the block temporarily shifting east and even a snow to rain scenario if the euro op verifies. We've been in this sort of "meh" cold scheme with modest td's. I know a fresh batch will come this week, but I feel better if we can just flush this out and get the airmass primed down the road. Of course the cold could vaporize if another storm goes west sometime later in the month, but I think it benefits us to have fresh cold around, as the block builds back west.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll welcome the block temporarily shifting east and even a snow to rain scenario if the euro op verifies. We've been in this sort of "meh" cold scheme with modest td's. I know a fresh batch will come this week, but I feel better if we can just flush this out and get the airmass primed down the road. Of course the cold could vaporize if another storm goes west sometimes later in the month, but I think it benefits us to have fresh cold around, as the block builds back west.

Well I definitely think we get a fresh arctic airmass in here after next weeks system...whether its snow or not.

I find it funny that the block up there was the perfect strength to keep the clipper from amplifying yet not strong enough to retrograde the low back into us ala Dec 5-6, 1981 or last New Years. We need something to break our crappy luck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well I definitely think we get a fresh arctic airmass in here after next weeks system...whether its snow or not.

I find it funny that the block up there was the perfect strength to keep the clipper from amplifying yet not strong enough to retrograde the low back into us ala Dec 5-6, 1981 or last New Years. We need something to break our crappy luck.

Like the NYE ball dropping.

[weathafella]

What time frame are we talking...

I'm having dinner at the Top of the Hub next Friday (the 10th).

Purely for the view hopefully. Folks coming into town or business?

[Mr Torchey]

gfs bone dry for sne and the clipper on the 10th vaporizes, hopefully some redevelopment

2011, I endorse this notion.

[CT Rain]

FML with the 18z GFS