Zeus Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Isnt this what we are looking for? We need the b**ch to back dat ass up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS isa little stronger with the ULL and a little further west with the surface low, but not much difference in sensible wx. yeah it is nearly a spitting image of the 00z ec at the surface. some subtle differences early in the GOM, but overall...meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Gotcha thanks. Yeah you don't want everything too far north, or else it just pinwheels west with the low. The NAM rotated the low sw and thus pivoted the snow shield further south. The euro wasn't far off, so it will be interesting to see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This block may screw us in the short term but will certainly keep it cold enough for snow in the longer term. When it begins to relax, perhaps a big system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah you don't want everything too far north, or else it just pinwheels west with the low. The NAM rotated the low sw and thus pivoted the snow shield further south. The euro wasn't far off, so it will be interesting to see what it does. Ok i see what your saying now thanks.I'm learning, hopefully by the end of the winter i wont have to ask these questions any more(i doubt it though lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 yeah it is nearly a spitting image of the 00z ec at the surface. some subtle differences early in the GOM, but overall...meh. Do you think ur area sees any ocean effect from this type of set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This block may screw us in the short term but will certainly keep it cold enough for snow in the longer term. When it begins to relax, perhaps a big system. You mean to tell me you don't think this will be a cold, dry spell followed by an unceremonious warmup just in time for a rainstorm? Because that's what feels right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Do you think ur area sees any ocean effect from this type of set-up? It would seem like OES is unlikely with wind trajectory sfc and mid levels. Also, thermal gradient SST to H85 is not all that wonderful to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It would seem like OES is unlikely with wind trajectory sfc and mid levels. Also, thermal gradient SST to H85 is not all that wonderful to me. Thanks....Really uneducated on what type of set-up would be conducive for him to see OES. Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 You mean to tell me you don't think this will be a cold, dry spell followed by an unceremonious warmup just in time for a rainstorm? Because that's what feels right to me. I don't think that happens. Unless all the modeling is completely out to lunch wrt NAO. At the very least, we'll have snow to rain events which would be fine at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This block may screw us in the short term but will certainly keep it cold enough for snow in the longer term. When it begins to relax, perhaps a big system. I 100% agree with this and I think this is something to certainly watch for. The pattern looks like it will be quite active for at least the foreseeable future with lots of jet energy coming into the western US and lots of s/w coming in through the flow. As long as we keep this active look within the pattern something is bound to go right, at least just once. What I would like to see if once the NAO begins to relax it heads positive for a bit...sometimes are biggest systems come with the NAO changing phases...then after a brief period in the positive phase we switch back to negative and that allows a fresh Arctic airmass to potentially dump into the region and this can also be a great thing for a good storm. Still very early in the season and lots of potential coming up so we all should be feeling positive vibes here, despite what happens Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It would seem like OES is unlikely with wind trajectory sfc and mid levels. Also, thermal gradient SST to H85 is not all that wonderful to me. yeah with what the GFS is showing, it would be highly unlikely there'd be any in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok i see what your saying now thanks.I'm learning, hopefully by the end of the winter i wont have to ask these questions any more(i doubt it though lol) Always ask questions if you don't know. It's a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Real quickly, do any of you know a website that gives the record high and low for any given city at any given date?? I know the Cornell site, but I think that's more for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Just look how cold it looks across the United States next week...basically not much warmth anywhere, except in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Real quickly, do any of you know a website that gives the record high and low for any given city at any given date?? I know the Cornell site, but I think that's more for the northeast. wxunderground is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Real quickly, do any of you know a website that gives the record high and low for any given city at any given date?? I know the Cornell site, but I think that's more for the northeast. I'm sure there are better sites for this but actually I usually go to (and don't kill me ) the weather channel site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think the GFS beyond d3-4 is dubious this go around. It may have merit on the weekend system but after that I'm not buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Type in the city you want Click on month Then click on averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 wxunderground is pretty good. I'm sure there are better sites for this but actually I usually go to (and don't kill me ) the weather channel site. Thanks guys. I forgot Wunderground lists the almanac for each city. I usually only go there for past obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think the GFS beyond d3-4 is dubious this go around. It may have merit on the weekend system but after that I'm not buying. And then we will get the euro which will be right in the middle of both of these other 2 models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thanks guys. I forgot Wunderground lists the almanac for each city. I usually only go there for past obs. I never even actually thought of using wunderground for that...I think I actually think I've used it before and it might even be a bit easier than using TWX site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I never even actually thought of using wunderground for that...I think I actually think I've used it before and it might even be a bit easier than using TWX site. their site can be a bit clunky but it's a quick way to grab averages and records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The NAM would be a fun solution, but yesterday's 12Z run led us down the garden path some..then retreated completely. So I'll trust the NAM when I see it on a few more runs. Not to be a debbie downer because I want snow as much as anyone - but my general inclination is that this pattern is mainly one that benefits Northern NE and maybe the Dacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The NAM would be a fun solution, but yesterday's 12Z run led us down the garden path some..then retreated completely. So I'll trust the NAM when I see it on a few more runs. Not to be a debbie downer because I want snow as much as anyone - but my general inclination is that this pattern is mainly one that benefits Northern NE and maybe the Dacks. GFS= BORING FOR MANY 32.8/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Another cold and potentially stormy op run. Quite the gradient across the Mason Dixon line at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 their site can be a bit clunky but it's a quick way to grab averages and records. When geocities was still up I started making web page for records and such...I had a page for select stations in the Northeast and I made it real simple, you just selected the city you wanted and then the month and boom there was the data...on TWC and wunderground you have to do so much clicking and such. I miss geocities...it was so easy to use and so simple, need to find another free web builder site that is free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It looks like the more meso scale models are hinting at the retro. While it ends at 12z Saturday, the Canadian regional tries to get snow almost to PSM. Not sure how much farther south it could come though, beyond 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think there will definitely be snow showers across the region on Saturday and Sunday, not everyone is going to be lucky enough to see flakes but I think many will, especially north of the MA Pike and towards NE MA and NH...enough lift over the region and enough moisture available. Will there be any accumulations from it? Probably nothing major, maybe some spots see a dusting or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 God's country will need a whole lotta trending. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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