Retrograde Snowstorm by 12/5?

[powderfreak]

I've cleared my mid week schedule for some skiing.

You get four thumbs up for that. Are you coming north? MRG should get crushed as well... if they do well and aren't open, I may even swing down there to do some skinning. I love reserved powder on sick terrain... although it will be hard to pull me away from Mansfield if we are indeed measuring in feet like BTV said in this afternoon's AFD.

Game on!

[Ginx snewx]

NAM has Caribou pouring rain Saturday night/Sunday.

The rain in Maine pours heavily on the plain.

[Ginx snewx]

You get four thumbs up for that. Are you coming north? MRG should get crushed as well... if they do well and aren't open, I may even swing down there to do some skinning. I love reserved powder on sick terrain... although it will be hard to pull me away from Mansfield if we are indeed measuring in feet like BTV said in this afternoon's AFD.

Game on!

I would be nervous about lack of strong wind flow for big numbers.

[ski MRG]

You get four thumbs up for that. Are you coming north? MRG should get crushed as well... if they do well and aren't open, I may even swing down there to do some skinning. I love reserved powder on sick terrain... although it will be hard to pull me away from Mansfield if we are indeed measuring in feet like BTV said in this afternoon's AFD.

Game on!

Not sure exactly where, I'd like it to be MRG but I'll go wherever it's steep and deep. Just spoke with my friend in AK and he's coming down to spend the holidays here (and to escape the dark). Confident we'll be in very good shape for the visit. If I'm solo maybe I'll hit Stowe. It is Game On! Winter is the best, wish it was here 24/7/365.

[Ginx snewx]

Not sure exactly where, I'd like it to be MRG but I'll go wherever it's steep and deep. Just spoke with my friend in AK and he's coming down to spend the holidays here (and to escape the dark). Confident we'll be in very good shape for the visit. If I'm solo maybe I'll hit Stowe. It is Game On! Winter is the best, wish it was here 24/7/365.

Hope it happens but I am skeptical of feet of snow, upslope seems weak to me.

[powderfreak]

I would be nervous about lack of strong wind flow for big numbers.

Each event is different... I've seen heavy snow with H85 winds of 15kts and heavy snow with H85 winds of 60kts.

All I want is to cover my grass (3"<) and I think that's a pretty good bet right now. I'm like you Ginx, any snow is good snow. I talk excited but always keep expectations low... that way you are never disappointed, especially in this area where things tend to over-perform, but that's coming from someone who grew up in the Hudson Valley and is used to getting screwed. Its akin to taking someone from the CT Valley and transplanting them up here; I doubt they'd ever be disappointed.

[Ginx snewx]

Each event is different... I've seen heavy snow with H85 winds of 15kts and heavy snow with H85 winds of 60kts.

All I want is to cover my grass (3"<) and I think that's a pretty good bet right now. I'm like you Ginx, any snow is good snow. I talk excited but always keep expectations low... that way you are never disappointed, especially in this area where things tend to over-perform, but that's coming from someone who grew up in the Hudson Valley and is used to getting screwed. Its akin to taking someone from the CT Valley and transplanting them up here; I doubt they'd ever be disappointed.

What is BTV basing their AFD on?, instability or massive up slope?

[Ginx snewx]

Well I think we all can agree on one thing, the pattern changed!

[Mr Torchey]

Well I think we all can agree on one thing, the pattern changed!

Next week is perfect for winter golf down here in the tropics. Lakes and ground will be frozen, long long drives, but if you walk 18, with a nip or two of jack, well its heaven.

blizz>0z modeling looks good supports 3-6 region wide<blizz

[WeatherX]

Next week is perfect for winter golf down here in the tropics. Lakes and ground will be frozen, long long drives, but if you walk 18, with a nip or two of jack, well its heaven.

blizz>0z modeling looks good supports 3-6 region wide<blizz

Pocket golf? Followed by a poop in the pants

[weathafella]

I'm heading to a family party in Rowley during the GTG. Rowley is near the NH border on Cape Ann. There's a chance of something falling from the sky other than seagull sh i t.

[J.Spin]

Gotta get some snow at JSpin's stake!

The stake is ready, snowboards are ready, rulers and all the other snow measurin' stuff are ready, now we'll just have to see what Mother Nature wants to deliver. Like Powderfreak we've had flakes in the air all evening, but nothing has been accumulating down at this elevation. Scott - I immediately thought of one of your microclimate comments today on the drive home. I got off the bus at the Waterbury Park and Ride and it was just cloudy, I hadn't even been thinking about snow in our area or anything. Wouldn't you know it though, just after I pass by the Cider House, about 3/4 of a mile from home, the lights caught a fleck of white. I figured it was a scrap of paper or a leaf or whatever, but within moments there were flakes all around and I had to laugh because I'd just entered "the zone". I took it as a good sign though that we are getting into that winter regime.

[NorEastermass128]

Maine (esp Downeast ME) is pummeled this run of the 00z GFS. Interior areas see warning level snows from the GFS. Too bad that can't pivot SW...

EDIT: Snows for a while up there. Ski areas should do really well entering next week with real wintertime cold entering the NE too. Ahhh...if only this were happening 150-200 miles SW. We'll get ours (eventually)

[Turtle]

The rain in Maine pours heavily on the plain.

OMG, I can't believe you said that. While I was up in PWM, the hubby used to say something very close to this ALL THE TIME! He'd say, "The rain in Maine falls mainly on the (coastal) plain." Great minds think alike, eh?

--Turtle

[Bostonseminole]

that's some cold air in NW Canada/Alaska at the end of the GFS run, 850mb temps -25 to -30's showing up

[weathafella]

that's some cold air in NW Canada/Alaska at the end of the GFS run, 850mb temps -25 to -30's showing up

-27C shows up around 6-7 actually.

[40/70 Benchmark]

that's some cold air in NW Canada/Alaska at the end of the GFS run, 850mb temps -25 to -30's showing up

Whoopdeedoo

[Hazey]

Seriously, this block is screwing everyone as of now. Just talk to a buddy stationed in Nain Labrador. They have almost no snow. Sitting at 4c. Their normal high is -10c. If that block got any stronger would only be a matter of time before that putrid air would filter down through Maine and maybe into Mass. I'd much prefer a Jan 05' storm track than pinning my hopes on some 90degree left hook style storm track. We need to keep things moving along. Getting very 09-10ish around here.

[Hazey]

Actually here is the forecast for Nain. Imagine how much chair tipping would be going on if your normal high was -10c (14F) and you were looking at this

Tonight Cloudy periods. Wind south 20 km/h. Low plus 1.

Friday Sunny with cloudy periods. Wind south 20 km/h becoming light in the afternoon. High plus 4.

Friday night A few clouds. Increasing cloudiness after midnight. Low zero.

Saturday Cloudy. High plus 3

.

Sunday Cloudy. Low plus 2. High plus 3.

Monday Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low plus 2. High plus 5.

Tuesday Flurries or rain showers. Low zero. High plus 1.

Wednesday Periods of snow. Low zero. High zero.

Eventually this would be your source air. Even on a NE wind.Grrrr

[Hazey]

This just makes me want to vomit. Violently too. Any other time this storm would be a ragging blizzard here. Provided it was moving NE instead of NNW. So as much as your hopes were crushed. It could be much much worse

[nzucker]

This just makes me want to vomit. Violently too. Any other time this storm would be a ragging blizzard here. Provided it was moving NE instead of NNW. So as much as your hopes were crushed. It could be much much worse

The block has just gotten too intense for New England and the Canadian Maritimes....we need the pattern to relax a bit to allow some arctic air to filter further east and have room for each storm to amplify fully. This was the problem in 09-10 with every storm dying out before it got up north, and now the whole suppression/maritime air contamination is once again becoming a theme of the cold season. I wish the block would just move further north into Northern Greenland instead of sitting so far southwest.

[skierinvermont]

You get four thumbs up for that. Are you coming north? MRG should get crushed as well... if they do well and aren't open, I may even swing down there to do some skinning. I love reserved powder on sick terrain... although it will be hard to pull me away from Mansfield if we are indeed measuring in feet like BTV said in this afternoon's AFD.

Game on!

I can't wait for skiing!!! I have been watching ski movies non-stop but it is time for the real thing. If you really do get feet up there I may try and come up. I hope BTV is right

[Hazey]

The block has just gotten too intense for New England and the Canadian Maritimes....we need the pattern to relax a bit to allow some arctic air to filter further east and have room for each storm to amplify fully. This was the problem in 09-10 with every storm dying out before it got up north, and now the whole suppression/maritime air contamination is once again becoming a theme of the cold season. I wish the block would just move further north into Northern Greenland instead of sitting so far southwest.

Thank you. I could not agree more. I think folks are missing that point. Hopefully that will happen with time and then the fun will begin.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't be shocked if some areas see flurries or even some snow showers tonight or tomorrow. While models are not spitting out qpf...it does kind of have that look on the models. Lots of RH around so we might see a little sneaky light snow or flurries in spots. Maybe some more flurries later Sunday into Monday.

[ski MRG]

I wouldn't be shocked if some areas see flurries or even some snow showers tonight or tomorrow. While models are not spitting out qpf...it does kind of have that look on the models. Lots of RH around so we might see a little sneaky light snow or flurries in spots. Maybe some more flurries later Sunday into Monday.

Hi.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I wouldn't be shocked if some areas see flurries or even some snow showers tonight or tomorrow. While models are not spitting out qpf...it does kind of have that look on the models. Lots of RH around so we might see a little sneaky light snow or flurries in spots. Maybe some more flurries later Sunday into Monday.

case in point might be that area of spin off the MA coast.

[CoastalWx]

case in point might be that area of spin off the MA coast.

Yeah that's interesting. Models actually have a weak comma head like feature coming up into eastern mass. I think it's something to watch anyways..not for heavy snow obviously..but maybe some areas of snow showers or even light snow. It could also be too dry in the lower levels and with left with just virga, but something to watch.

[CoastalWx]

BUFKIT shows some pretty good RH in the DGZ, but the problem is that we have little to no lift. Still, might be something to watch with decent RH in the DGZ.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah that's interesting. Models actually have a weak comma head like feature coming up into eastern mass. I think it's something to watch anyways..not for heavy snow obviously..but maybe some areas of snow showers or even light snow. It could also be too dry in the lower levels and with left with just virga, but something to watch.

Yeah I think today there's too much mid level drying..but this time of year it doesn't take much to wring out some snow for everyone

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I think today there's too much mid level drying..but this time of year it doesn't take much to wring out some snow for everyone

It actually moistens in the mid levels...it's the lower levels that are the issue. Hopefully some festivus flakes in the air..but it could very well be just virga.