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Retrograde Snowstorm by 12/5?

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

It would probably keep the Pacific better looking. As of right now, it looks like the PAC side is going to get a bit ugly post-Dec 10th but the strong NAO blocking (even when its an Iceland block) is keeping SE Canada and NE cold. '68-'69 saw this pattern quite a bit and it was a cold winter, so it (NAO) can really save our bacon in certain setups.

There's other forcing beside the MJO, but I'm not an expert there.

Well let's hope the MJO doesn't go into phase 4/5...maybe there is a possibility that doesn't happen. I find it really hard to believe that we won't be able to produce with a favorable Pacific and a favorable Atlantic. It might not be towards mid month until we see results but I'm confident we get hit in this pattern. I just can't see us getting shutout.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Well let's hope the MJO doesn't go into phase 4/5...maybe there is a possibility that doesn't happen. I find it really hard to believe that we won't be able to produce with a favorable Pacific and a favorable Atlantic. It might not be towards mid month until we see results but I'm confident we get hit in this pattern. I just can't see us getting shutout.

2009-2010

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Really......finishing below normal during a month hasn't been an easy accomplishment this year.

Calling for a cold December also really tips my hand RE the entirety of the winter if you have researched strong Nina Decembers and subsequent seasons....strong correlation there.

Very small database hard to make a statistical correlation based on that.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Lots of talk about the block being too strong etc, wouldn't we benefit more in CNE/SNE it were stronger and further SW?

For the retrograde storms...yeah it would be better to have it stronger as it would force it to retrograde further south than currently progged.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I'm not amped up about 12/13. LOL I live inside the 5 day forecast mostly and get my greatest fun searching the models for small nuances that might get me some snow (any snow) in the short term. So I'm mainly looking at these runs now to see if there is an opening for an inch or two here and there..... Maybe on 12/8 I get amped about 12/13.

This is me too a tee.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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For the retrograde storms...yeah it would be better to have it stronger as it would force it to retrograde further south than currently progged.

I am keeping a close eye on that, hopefully the block is stronger and further SW than pronged, now wouldn't that be ironic has that is exactly what happened last year to screw us.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
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Not at all, looks like its going to be cool and dry for most of new england besides favored upslope locations and Maine until the mid month threat, lets just hope that storm does not cut.

Euro weeklies are ridiculously cold week 1 and 2, normal week 3 and slightly below week 4 but the cross polar flow is cut off and we are an island of cool. Trough axis looks primed for miller b's dec 8th-20th in my opinion.

Ok, what's it going to be? Pick sides. Circle of Trust or Negative Nellies.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Ok, what's it going to be? Pick sides. Circle of Trust or Negative Nellies.

I am a realist Pete, I would take the weeklies with 6 chunks of sea salt, just a guide for determining patterns. But, there is no doubt that the next two weeks are going to be cold, especially next week. I love snow more than anything besides my family, Julie (significant other) has enjoyed smudge free windows far too long. I am dying for snow, but I am not going to set myself only to be let down, the first real threat and I am going all out. By the way, enjoy the upslope starting this weekend, how does an inch of pixie dust every day for a week sound??:snowman:

I hope to God that you are backing the JETS this weekend.

By the way did everyone see that pretty boy brady is now endorsing uggs footwear, really dude? :lmao:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The only reason I'm particularly fascinated with 12/11-12 is the historical significance of that date's 50 year anniversary. Wouldn't that be something! Hard to believe something that happened 50 years ago with me already post pubescent.

I prefer the 18 year anniversary myself.

december1992snowfallrev.png

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
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I am a realist Pete, I would take the weeklies with 6 chunks of sea salt, just a guide for determining patterns. But, there is no doubt that the next two weeks are going to be cold, especially next week. I love snow more than anything besides my family, Julie (significant other) has enjoyed smudge free windows far too long. I am dying for snow, but I am not going to set myself only to be let down, the first real threat and I am going all out. By the way, enjoy the upslope starting this weekend, how does an inch of pixie dust every day for a week sound??:snowman:

I hope to God that you are backing the Pats this weekend.

By the way did everyone see that pretty boy brady is now endorsing uggs footwear, really dude? :lmao:

I'm a realist too. It will snow. I am sure that this won't be the first winter that it doesn't. I would love to have every model lining up and progging a major snow event in the next 24-48hrs but the fact that they aren't doesn't give me a reason to simply dismiss the possibility for accumulating snow. Stranger things have happened. A real threat may materialize on very short notice. I just think something will pop soon. You won't be let down if you believe it will snow without locking in on a particular system. As for the Monday night game, yes, I agree with you, the Pats will smoke the Jets. I think there will be some snow in the mix as well. Brady is lining up as many endorsement as possible ahead of his retirement announcement after this season. Giselle needs him at home now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Wow, talk about a CT River Valley screwing. How high in elevation did you generally have to be to get snow out of that storm Will? And was the rest of 92-93 a bad winter?

well the CP in eastern MA did get significant snow sans right on the water like Logan airport (even they still got 9")...but once west of there, 500 feet seemed to be the magic line where the snow really ramped up quickly. Waterbury area did pretty well while just east of them lower in the valley they got screwed.

That was a very good winter for most of SNE...but it was a blockbuster for BOS/ORH northward. Pretty tight gradient. BOS had 83.9" and PVD had 39.7"....not sure we'll see that again any time soon. BDL was above average with 62.1".

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snowNH

snowNH

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Meanwhile, with the Pacific as is, does SnowNH realize how much we'd torch with a positive NAO?

If we're not going to snow. Might as well torch. That's just how I see it. What's good about highs in the 20s? Record cold, that's a different story. The block is rearing its ugly head again in 2010-2011.

Ok, I'm ready for the "But we need to establish the cold before we snow comments..."

I just think it sucks that we've gone from talking about a serious threat to talking about previous snow events lol. Its almost like we moved back into early november again.

I'm patient though. I didn't expect much from this time period anyways. I just don't want to see a block right over our heads again like last year.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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If we're not going to snow. Might as well torch. That's just how I see it. What's good about highs in the 20s? Record cold, that's a different story. The block is rearing its ugly head again in 2010-2011.

Ok, I'm ready for the "But we need to establish the cold before we snow comments..."

Who said were not going to get snow?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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If we're not going to snow. Might as well torch. That's just how I see it. What's good about highs in the 20s? Record cold, that's a different story. The block is rearing its ugly head again in 2010-2011.

Ok, I'm ready for the "But we need to establish the cold before we snow comments..."

Dec 2006 and Dec 1999 I never want to live through again. I'm all set with a torch where there is zero chance for snow.

At least we have a legit chance in this setup. We'll cash in soon enough. You should actually wish for the block to get stronger on tonight's models as it would increase the chances of getting retrograde snows in here.

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