CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Not bad... but it would be nice to see other runs start to catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Typhoon Tip Upon taking in the 12z NAM and comparing it to the 00z and 06z solutions, it almost appears what it is trying to do is a rare collocation of L/W nodal response to the -NAO, with an actual system - that seems to be why the system now 72-84 hours is pegging steadily SW in successive model cycles. Interesting to say the least - as is Central NE is clearly in with windy warn scenario, and NE mass is getting clipped on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Any guesses on what the 12z GFS will throw up with? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Any guesses on what the 12z GFS will throw up with? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Any guesses on what the 12z GFS will throw up with? lol Probably a convective ball around the center of the low, moving into PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Any guesses on what the 12z GFS will throw up with? lol More of the same (compared with its 06z and 00z runs)... I feel like it'll hesitate to bring any real precip to SNE in the time frame the NAM just showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Sometimes the NAM leads the way on these things but a lot of times it's just sort of out there with these solutions. I think the odds of an inch or two of snow in NE Mass are definitely there but for most of us this probably won't pan out to be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 9z SREF have virtually 0% probabilities of over 0.25" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z and 06z GFS has been flagging Saturday as the "snowy" day... while NAM is Sunday. 6z GFS delivers a solid 1/4-1/2" of QPF across the northern tier on Saturday. I would assume this is the same "event" that the NAM is showing, just timing differences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Snowgaps. I like Ray's use of the almost always out to sea model as the flag. 6Z screamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 there is a caution flag to fly with respect to the NAM. it's not hard to envision that precip shield backing west like that and it's definitely an exciting thing to think that some snow could very well be flying saturday night...but it could have an uphill battle in a lot of SNE because essentially all of your low to mid-level winds are either N, NW, or W. we know retro solutions can sweep precip in (obviously we saw it last year) but there were better thermal dynamics at work back then (remember the arctic chill that accompanied that event while the marine air was sweeping down from ME). not saying it's not worth watching and being excited about, but let's be careful what we call a "snowstorm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 there is a caution flag to fly with respect to the NAM. it's not hard to envision that precip shield backing west like that and it's definitely an exciting thing to think that some snow could very well be flying saturday night...but it could have an uphill battle in a lot of SNE because essentially all of your low to mid-level winds are either N, NW, or W. we know retro solutions can sweep precip in (obviously we saw it last year) but there were better thermal dynamics at work back then (remember the arctic chill that accompanied that event while the marine air was sweeping down from ME). not saying it's not worth watching and being excited about, but let's be careful what we call a "snowstorm" Yes. As soon as someone calls it a snowstorm, we will remind them to be careful. CT Blizz is exempt, as he is a special needs child of God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 there is a caution flag to fly with respect to the NAM. it's not hard to envision that precip shield backing west like that and it's definitely an exciting thing to think that some snow could very well be flying saturday night...but it could have an uphill battle in a lot of SNE because essentially all of your low to mid-level winds are either N, NW, or W. we know retro solutions can sweep precip in (obviously we saw it last year) but there were better thermal dynamics at work back then (remember the arctic chill that accompanied that event while the marine air was sweeping down from ME). not saying it's not worth watching and being excited about, but let's be careful what we call a "snowstorm" Yeah this thing certainly does have an uphill battle. If I lived north of Boston I'd certainly be a bit more excited than areas southwest of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 RGEM woefully behind schedule today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah this thing certainly does have an uphill battle. If I lived north of Boston I'd certainly be a bit more excited than areas southwest of there. yeah. i'm not going to be picky about whatever transpires in the next few days anyway, but it's just something to think about. i'll be happy with flakes flying so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 there is a caution flag to fly with respect to the NAM. it's not hard to envision that precip shield backing west like that and it's definitely an exciting thing to think that some snow could very well be flying saturday night...but it could have an uphill battle in a lot of SNE because essentially all of your low to mid-level winds are either N, NW, or W. we know retro solutions can sweep precip in (obviously we saw it last year) but there were better thermal dynamics at work back then (remember the arctic chill that accompanied that event while the marine air was sweeping down from ME). not saying it's not worth watching and being excited about, but let's be careful what we call a "snowstorm" Agreed for sure. It's tough with nw winds, but last year the isentropic lift was pretty dam strong for a time. I think so long as the forcing is there..we'd be ok for some snow, despite nw winds. The NAM is pretty bullish with lift for a time near dawn Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Agreed for sure. It's tough with nw winds, but last year the isentropic lift was pretty dam strong for a time. I think so long as the forcing is there..we'd be ok for some snow, despite nw winds. The NAM is pretty bullish with lift for a time near dawn Sunday. nam does have some OK lift for BOS. actually spits out several inches of accumulation for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 nam does have some OK lift for BOS. actually spits out several inches of accumulation for that area. Yeah it's not completely in the DGZ, but there is some lift in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah it's not completely in the DGZ, but there is some lift in that region. yeah beggars can't be choosers but i guess ideally you'd like to see that fit better. i was half expecting to fire it up and see the entire S-7h column at like 40% RH...so it was a pleasant surprise in that respect. i don't think anyone in E MA would complain about that general set-up though. i wonder if it would be one main band of precip that looks pretty ominous as it pinwheels southwest, before sort of getting chipped apart as it makes its move SW across SNE, then replaced by more intermittent light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thread needs a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 what's going to be funny is when the rest of the 12z suite rolls in and none depict the aggressive NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 what's going to be funny is when the rest of the 12z suite rolls in and none depict the aggressive NAM solution. So from here on out its a slow walk back to partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 what's going to be funny is when the rest of the 12z suite rolls in and none depict the aggressive NAM solution. That's pretty much expected. The ETA of this thread's demise is imminent. Hope I'm wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS at least seems to show potential for some snow flurries/showers throughout the day on Saturday, especially in northern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 what's going to be funny is when the rest of the 12z suite rolls in and none depict the aggressive NAM solution. GFS isa little stronger with the ULL and a little further west with the surface low, but not much difference in sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS isa little stronger with the ULL and a little further west with the surface low, but not much difference in sensible wx. Isnt this what we are looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Isnt this what we are looking for? Precip is also further north....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Precip is also further north....... Gotcha thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 what's going to be funny is when the rest of the 12z suite rolls in and none depict the aggressive NAM solution. LOL and that's probably what will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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