Sundog Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Garbage weather today. OT but are they ever going to upgrade the graphics on the model site? I'm tired of viewing the NAM and GFS with crappy resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 long range remains toasty on the gfs. Today is pretty hot and the heights and 850s arent even that impressive so its probly going to get even hotter towards mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 long range remains toasty on the gfs. Today is pretty hot and the heights and 850s arent even that impressive so its probly going to get even hotter towards mid month. Look how this coastal storm is sneaking up on us for this weekend. Another shift west, and this weekend will be a washout and well below normal. And only 24 hours ago, less then 96 hours on models, the weekend looked sunny and upper 80's to low 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Look how this coastal storm is sneaking up on us for this weekend. Another shift west, and this weekend will be a washout and well below normal. And only 24 hours ago, less then 96 hours on models, the weekend looked sunny and upper 80's to low 90's. the locals forecast for the weekend seems to be low humidity and temps in the low to mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Garbage weather today. OT but are they ever going to upgrade the graphics on the model site? I'm tired of viewing the NAM and GFS with crappy resolution. Yup, this is the worst kind of weather-- clouds, no rain and high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yeah what happened to the typical 3H type weather, where its hazy but still sunny....lately it seems like its clear blue sky like yesterday or practically overcast Yup, this is the worst kind of weather-- clouds, no rain and high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 the locals forecast for the weekend seems to be low humidity and temps in the low to mid 80s. What does that have to do with the new gfs and nam showing a coastal storm for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What does that have to do with the new gfs and nam showing a coastal storm for this weekend? both models clear us out by saturday afternoon friday looks more convective than synoptic scale rain, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 both models clear us out by saturday afternoon friday looks more convective than synoptic scale rain, btw Friday afternoon yes, but Saturday looks like bands directly from the ocean storm...And if coastal gets closer and closer, Sunday can be affected as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Friday afternoon yes, but Saturday looks like bands directly from the ocean storm...And if coastal gets closer and closer, Sunday can be affected as well. The NAM has mid 80's for highs Saturday afternoon with the storm well to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The NAM has mid 80's for highs Saturday afternoon with the storm well to our northeast. Yup. We just have to watch to see if models keep bringing it closer. GFS came in closer and brings 1.50"+ of rain for the Jersey coast now. Any closer, and we might be dealing with an all day coastal. Right now, its a coastal brusher with rain from late Friday into Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 GGEM which was the closest to the coast, just pulled it east at 12z and we salvage the weekend after rain Friday into early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What does that have to do with the new gfs and nam showing a coastal storm for this weekend? The chances of that happening are 10% or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The chances of that happening are 10% or less. Hope so. Im watching the models (all of them) trending closer and closer with each run. The 12z GFS came so close, it gives almost the entire Jersey coast 1.50"-1.75" of rain now. Its definitely a feature that needs to be watched as it has the potential to be a big rain producer with gusty coastal winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...AND THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA BY FRI MORNING...AND SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIP WOULD ACTUALLY MOVE. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THIS BEARS FURTHER MONITORING. NWS paying attention as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Hope so. Im watching the models (all of them) trending closer and closer with each run. The 12z GFS came so close, it gives almost the entire Jersey coast 1.50"-1.75" of rain now. Its definitely a feature that needs to be watched as it has the potential to be a big rain producer with gusty coastal winds. That would be nice to see around here-- grass is becoming parched and its becoming a pain to water for 2 hours every day lol. It's a lot better than the sporadic showery crap we've been getting which amounts to like 0.25 and makes it seem like it never rained by the next day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What does the NOGAPS say? GGEM which was the closest to the coast, just pulled it east at 12z and we salvage the weekend after rain Friday into early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The current UKMET looks like the GFS in hitting southern areas the hardest Friday into Friday night before pulling away on Saturday. Both models are hinting at a sharp cutoff of precip to the north.We'll see how the models handle the location of the heaviest convection over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 NWS paying attention as well. Heh, I'd like to see that in the winter too, slowly moving further north with each model run and before you know it the forecast has changed from sunny and cold with highs in the 30s to snowy and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What does the NOGAPS say? Only reason why I mentioned GGEM, was because it was the ONLY model showing this coastal a few days ago. But on todays 12z run, it pulled the storm east and came more in line with the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The current UKMET looks like the GFS in hitting southern areas the hardest Friday into Friday night before pulling away on Saturday. Both models are hinting at a sharp cutoff of precip to the north.We'll see how the models handle this over the next few days. Hour 72, shows it as a near miss as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I wasn't making fun. It just reminded me of winter tracking a nor'easter Only reason why I mentioned GGEM, was because it was the ONLY model showing this coastal a few days ago. But on todays 12z run, it pulled the storm east and came more in line with the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 humid......83/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Newark at 93. Central Park at 89 (!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Newark at 93. Central Park at 89 (!!!) Newark is at 94... 2pm update: EWR: 94 (high of the day) NYC: 89 (high of the day) LGA: 88 (high is 89 so far) JFK: 83 (high is 86 so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 edit 94 at newark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Storm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Newark at 93. Central Park at 89 (!!!) The chances are pretty decent the Park gets to 90 in between hours. JFK sucks balls however; sometimes I wish we could just annihilate the Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Storm coming. Euro coming out now says nam, gfs and cmc are on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Euro coming out now says nam, gfs and cmc are on crack. I didn't say when lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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