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June/July NYC Metro Wx Discussion


Dark Energy

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long range remains toasty on the gfs. Today is pretty hot and the heights and 850s arent even that impressive so its probly going to get even hotter towards mid month.

Look how this coastal storm is sneaking up on us for this weekend. Another shift west, and this weekend will be a washout and well below normal. And only 24 hours ago, less then 96 hours on models, the weekend looked sunny and upper 80's to low 90's.

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Look how this coastal storm is sneaking up on us for this weekend. Another shift west, and this weekend will be a washout and well below normal. And only 24 hours ago, less then 96 hours on models, the weekend looked sunny and upper 80's to low 90's.

the locals forecast for the weekend seems to be low humidity and temps in the low to mid 80s.

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Garbage weather today.

OT but are they ever going to upgrade the graphics on the model site? I'm tired of viewing the NAM and GFS with crappy resolution.

Yup, this is the worst kind of weather-- clouds, no rain and high humidity.

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both models clear us out by saturday afternoon

friday looks more convective than synoptic scale rain, btw

Friday afternoon yes, but Saturday looks like bands directly from the ocean storm...And if coastal gets closer and closer, Sunday can be affected as well.

nam_ref_066l.gif

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The NAM has mid 80's for highs Saturday afternoon with the storm well to our northeast.

Yup.

We just have to watch to see if models keep bringing it closer. GFS came in closer and brings 1.50"+ of rain for the Jersey coast now.

Any closer, and we might be dealing with an all day coastal.

Right now, its a coastal brusher with rain from late Friday into Saturday morning.

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The chances of that happening are 10% or less.

Hope so. Im watching the models (all of them) trending closer and closer with each run. The 12z GFS came so close, it gives almost the entire Jersey coast 1.50"-1.75" of rain now.

Its definitely a feature that needs to be watched as it has the potential to be a big rain producer with gusty coastal winds.

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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...AND

THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY THROUGH

SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA BY FRI

MORNING...AND SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT. BEST

CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST

AREA...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIP WOULD

ACTUALLY MOVE. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE

POPS IN THE FCST FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THIS BEARS

FURTHER MONITORING.

NWS paying attention as well.

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Hope so. Im watching the models (all of them) trending closer and closer with each run. The 12z GFS came so close, it gives almost the entire Jersey coast 1.50"-1.75" of rain now.

Its definitely a feature that needs to be watched as it has the potential to be a big rain producer with gusty coastal winds.

That would be nice to see around here-- grass is becoming parched and its becoming a pain to water for 2 hours every day lol. It's a lot better than the sporadic showery crap we've been getting which amounts to like 0.25 and makes it seem like it never rained by the next day lol.

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The current UKMET looks like the GFS in hitting southern areas the hardest Friday into Friday night before pulling away on Saturday.

Both models are hinting at a sharp cutoff of precip to the north.We'll see how the models handle the location of the heaviest convection

over the next few days.

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NWS paying attention as well.

Heh, I'd like to see that in the winter too, slowly moving further north with each model run and before you know it the forecast has changed from sunny and cold with highs in the 30s to snowy and windy.

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What does the NOGAPS say? :P

Only reason why I mentioned GGEM, was because it was the ONLY model showing this coastal a few days ago. But on todays 12z run, it pulled the storm east and came more in line with the NAM and GFS.

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The current UKMET looks like the GFS in hitting southern areas the hardest Friday into Friday night before pulling away on Saturday.

Both models are hinting at a sharp cutoff of precip to the north.We'll see how the models handle this over the next few days.

Hour 72, shows it as a near miss as well.

post-146-0-27554400-1309974353.gif

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