Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

June/July NYC Metro Wx Discussion


Dark Energy

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Took a nice weekend trip down to Ocean City, MD. Full sun all weekend and temperatures in the 90's. It was killer.

Nice to see the models building the ridge back up by 120+ hrs. This week should be slightly above average anyways--with temps in the upper 80's. Wednesday will probably be the warmest day of the week with 850 temps over 16 C I could see temperatures in the low 90's at the usual warm stations.

The 18z GFS has the 588 dm contour approaching and moving north of the area by the weekend. I'd urge some caution with a height field weakness keeping 850 temps down initially..but once that scours out the ridge should be well established so it could get hotter next week. There's good support for this with a -PNA trough building in to the western coast and no semblance of big blocking to get any Canadian shortwaves too far south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Took a nice weekend trip down to Ocean City, MD. Full sun all weekend and temperatures in the 90's. It was killer. Nice to see the models building the ridge back up by 120+ hrs. This week should be slightly above average anyways--with temps in the upper 80's. Wednesday will probably be the warmest day of the week with 850 temps over 16 C I could see temperatures in the low 90's at the usual warm stations.The 18z GFS has the 588 dm contour approaching and moving north of the area by the weekend. I'd urge some caution with a height field weakness keeping 850 temps down initially..but once that scours out the ridge should be well established so it could get hotter next week. There's good support for this with a -PNA trough building in to the western coast and no semblance of big blocking to get any Canadian shortwaves too far south.

The big question is do we get a couple of days of heat with a break,or do we have a 6 week period that is well above normal with 22-25 90+ degree days in that period?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can see the 18z GFS keeping the heat at bay initially (see the 850 temps)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f138.gif

But afterwards the -PNA gets going..and the pattern can really amplify...20 C 850 temps on the doorstep. Also a nice pattern for potential MCS activity & heat.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f174.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The big question is do we get a couple of days of heat with a break,or do we have a 6 week period that is well above normal with 22-25 90+ degree days in that period?

Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

There's still a bit of a weakness in the jet on the 12z GFS OP over Quebec, so any shots of heat are short-lived. It looks to me as if Wednesday should be quite hot, then cooler weather Thursday-Saturday with some rain along the cold front and then a few more comfortable nights. GFS wants to build the heat ridge in during the longer-range, but we've seen it do that a lot this summer, with little in the way of actual heat verifying except for early June.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

The summer of 1988 did just that.From JULY 5th to AUG 17th here,it was horrible with brutal heat and high dewpoints.It did rain at times,but was still awfully muggy when it did.

Excellent discussion btw.

BTW dont glorify the heat so much.I will get a helicopter to dump thousands of ice cubes in your pool.LOL!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

And maybe a 100 or two tossed in there also?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The day is finishing up on a good note. Much better out there now than earlier.

It actually got a lot better once the sun came out-- it dried things up; was nice with that westerly wind too. That damn southerly wind kept the clouds in and the humidity up this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope everyone had a good 4th. Red Bank was awesome last night and tonight's fireworks at Sea Bright were literally launched off 100 feet from our seats on the beach. Comfortable temps, both air and ocean, and did anyone else catch the gorgeous sunset?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope everyone had a good 4th. Red Bank was awesome last night and tonight's fireworks at Sea Bright were literally launched off 100 feet from our seats on the beach. Comfortable temps, both air and ocean, and did anyone else catch the gorgeous sunset?

Most beautiful sunset in a long time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...