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June/July NYC Metro Wx Discussion


Dark Energy

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Took a nice weekend trip down to Ocean City, MD. Full sun all weekend and temperatures in the 90's. It was killer.

Nice to see the models building the ridge back up by 120+ hrs. This week should be slightly above average anyways--with temps in the upper 80's. Wednesday will probably be the warmest day of the week with 850 temps over 16 C I could see temperatures in the low 90's at the usual warm stations.

The 18z GFS has the 588 dm contour approaching and moving north of the area by the weekend. I'd urge some caution with a height field weakness keeping 850 temps down initially..but once that scours out the ridge should be well established so it could get hotter next week. There's good support for this with a -PNA trough building in to the western coast and no semblance of big blocking to get any Canadian shortwaves too far south.

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Took a nice weekend trip down to Ocean City, MD. Full sun all weekend and temperatures in the 90's. It was killer. Nice to see the models building the ridge back up by 120+ hrs. This week should be slightly above average anyways--with temps in the upper 80's. Wednesday will probably be the warmest day of the week with 850 temps over 16 C I could see temperatures in the low 90's at the usual warm stations.The 18z GFS has the 588 dm contour approaching and moving north of the area by the weekend. I'd urge some caution with a height field weakness keeping 850 temps down initially..but once that scours out the ridge should be well established so it could get hotter next week. There's good support for this with a -PNA trough building in to the western coast and no semblance of big blocking to get any Canadian shortwaves too far south.

The big question is do we get a couple of days of heat with a break,or do we have a 6 week period that is well above normal with 22-25 90+ degree days in that period?

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You can see the 18z GFS keeping the heat at bay initially (see the 850 temps)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f138.gif

But afterwards the -PNA gets going..and the pattern can really amplify...20 C 850 temps on the doorstep. Also a nice pattern for potential MCS activity & heat.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f174.gif

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The big question is do we get a couple of days of heat with a break,or do we have a 6 week period that is well above normal with 22-25 90+ degree days in that period?

Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

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Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

There's still a bit of a weakness in the jet on the 12z GFS OP over Quebec, so any shots of heat are short-lived. It looks to me as if Wednesday should be quite hot, then cooler weather Thursday-Saturday with some rain along the cold front and then a few more comfortable nights. GFS wants to build the heat ridge in during the longer-range, but we've seen it do that a lot this summer, with little in the way of actual heat verifying except for early June.

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Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

The summer of 1988 did just that.From JULY 5th to AUG 17th here,it was horrible with brutal heat and high dewpoints.It did rain at times,but was still awfully muggy when it did.

Excellent discussion btw.

BTW dont glorify the heat so much.I will get a helicopter to dump thousands of ice cubes in your pool.LOL!!!

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Both are possible...that's a huge ridge being advertised across the CONUS...with the -PNA and the receding lower heights across southeast Canada...I think there's a legitmate shot at an extended period of 90+ F temps.

And maybe a 100 or two tossed in there also?

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The day is finishing up on a good note. Much better out there now than earlier.

It actually got a lot better once the sun came out-- it dried things up; was nice with that westerly wind too. That damn southerly wind kept the clouds in and the humidity up this morning.

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Hope everyone had a good 4th. Red Bank was awesome last night and tonight's fireworks at Sea Bright were literally launched off 100 feet from our seats on the beach. Comfortable temps, both air and ocean, and did anyone else catch the gorgeous sunset?

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Hope everyone had a good 4th. Red Bank was awesome last night and tonight's fireworks at Sea Bright were literally launched off 100 feet from our seats on the beach. Comfortable temps, both air and ocean, and did anyone else catch the gorgeous sunset?

Most beautiful sunset in a long time.

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