earthlight Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 not a big fan of the setup saturday night right now...it could definitely change but I don't see much to work with to get us organized severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 not a big fan of the setup saturday night right now...it could definitely change but I don't see much to work with to get us organized severe weather. I didn't say it would be organized, but there should be scattered storms around, maybe Sunday night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 They are basing the temps and blending it from the NAM and GFS. The NAM tends to have a cold bias. I won't knock upton for that at all. NAM has temps for LI in the low 40's for tonight and tomorrow night. GFS has temps in the upper 40's to near 50 for LI and low to mid 50's for the city. I believe it will be in the 50-55 F for the city and 45-50 F for LI with some lower 40's in colder spots and even isolated upper 30's in far NW areas in the highest elevation where frost could happen there. I still believe we will few nice days but I feeling we may pay for a chilly rainy day with possibly Noreaster like system with temps in the 50's and 60's before transitioning back into a summer pattern again. I'd be shocked if anyone in our zones falls below 45 for tonight. Even Albany is forecasting lows in the mid 40's up in the capital district. 850 mb temps support a max min tonight in NYC metro of about 55 or so and there are no conditions tonight that could take us much below the max min. The only chance of getting into the lower 40's tonight is for ideal radiational cooling and tonight is far from it. Winds are ripping at all levels. I more or less expect a fairly tight range of numbers tonight, even the north west burbs. I'm thinking that here in Rockland, I will stay above 50 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I didn't say it would be organized, but there should be scattered storms around, maybe Sunday night too. I doubt we see rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I doubt we see rain Who is "we"? Your backyard or the entire area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Feels a little too much like autumn for me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Feels a little too much like autumn for me today. Yeah no doubt gorgeous day, but once Memorial Day hits I'm all for heat and humidity, with a coolish day every so often. We've got a 3-6 day stretch of pleasant temps/low humidity coming up, which is nice, but not summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Feels a little too much like autumn for me today. Better than the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yeah no doubt gorgeous day, but once Memorial Day hits I'm all for heat and humidity, with a coolish day every so often. We've got a 3-6 day stretch of pleasant temps/low humidity coming up, which is nice, but not summer weather. Yeah agreed. Bring back the heat and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yeah agreed. Bring back the heat and humidity. Agreed but at the sametime I would take few of these nice days but not long stretch of boring weather with no thunderstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Agreed but at the sametime I would take few of these nice days but not long stretch of boring weather with no thunderstorm chances. you are obsessed with thunderstorms i see. Nothing wrong with that but you should move to the midwest..you arent going to get much on LI so just expect nothing and anything you get this summer will be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 We will have plenty of storm chances come July when our season really begins. And if I were a betting man, id say we will have a few serious tropical threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 We will have plenty of storm chances come July when our season really begins. And if I were a betting man, id say we will have a few serious tropical threats. meh, east coast canes are wayyy overhyped every year..am19psu in the philly thread said this year bears watching so thats all il do..but in terms of northeast landfalls dont get your hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 meh, east coast canes are wayyy overhyped every year..am19psu in the philly thread said this year bears watching so thats all il do..but in terms of northeast landfalls dont get your hopes up time to look past it all and talk about winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 time to look past it all and talk about winter. im down dude, piers corbyn says the best is yet to come for winter storms for the big cities. hey, atleast its not JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 you are obsessed with thunderstorms i see. Nothing wrong with that but you should move to the midwest..you arent going to get much on LI so just expect nothing and anything you get this summer will be a bonus Thunderdude reminds me of Ji, a snow weenie living in Washington DC. Except he's the thunderstorm version of Ji living in a horrible place for T-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Mid/late next week looks potentially interesting on the 18z GFS for ring of fire / differential advection type stuff. Maybe some MCS activity in the NW flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Thunderdude reminds me of Ji, a snow weenie living in Washington DC. Except he's the thunderstorm version of Ji living in a horrible place for T-storms. I guess I need a weenie tag LOL. I am happy with the snow I get most winters and the last 3 winters have been great for me. LI is good for snow but bad for thunderstorms. At once or more every year there is always a decent storms in my area living on LI past almost 10 years since growing up in Queens. Last year I moved to the south shore which from the central part of the island which I am not sure if it is ain't any better or worse when it come thunderstorms but I know it ain't as good when it comes to snow in the winter because it closer to the warmer waters where central and north shore could be getting snows and south shore could be getting rain or mixed precipitation. I may have moved to a worse spot when it comes to weather now but this past winter season has been great. Good news that there is some hope next week that could make it for yesterday but at least my area wasn't the only area that got area and Eastern LI actually got some good thunderstorms yesterday and the samething happen over week ago where the city through Central LI was screwed with the storms and they developed to my east. I think LI and the city get almost the same amount of thunderstorms every year virtually depending on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 We will have plenty of storm chances come July when our season really begins. And if I were a betting man, id say we will have a few serious tropical threats. Every that is being said and nothing ever happens. At best I would a weakening "tropical storm" becoming extratropical hitting our area. The Southeast Coast down through Flordia into the Gulf of Mexico I will be worried about another major hurricane affecting those areas again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Yeah agreed. Bring back the heat and humidity. Today was the nicest day in 2 weeks, easily. Love this weather. Can't wait to see widespread 40s tonight in the suburbs. Not sure we'll make it to the 40s here though at least at the downtown station...sitting at 59.8/45. Low 50s will probably be the reality except for the frost hollows in town, and further north in Westchester. Local weather had a low of 53F for Yonkers, and I'm only 3-4 miles north, so I'm not expecting too much colder, they are usually pretty accurate for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Well, june is here. Some have said this month will be a stormy one. Will we start off june with a bang? Being that today busted, thinking predictions for the whole month to be stormy are premature at this point. I was nearly stating what isotherm and HM have talked about. I guess you don't think they are good forecasters. Thats fine. I wasn;'t really high on convection chances today myself. I talked about that in another thread. He should have been banned then but John is a good guy with a long leash. Doubt he gets a pass next winter. Speaking of next winter, WOOF! It has nothing to do with what I think of those forecasters, it has to do with the general accuracy of long range forecasting. Ok man. I'm talking about a one month forecast from some respected forecasters, and yet, you are talking about next winter already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 We will have plenty of storm chances come July when our season really begins. And if I were a betting man, id say we will have a few serious tropical threats. Thunderstorm season doesn't begin here until the end of August. July is almost always dry around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Thunderstorm season doesn't begin here until the end of August. July is almost always dry around here. First thunderstorms usually happen in April but the real season doesn't begin until late May and early June both growing in Queens and living on Long Island for the past 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Looks like onshore flow from Sunday thru Wednesday next week with BD stalled SW of area and heat held back. GFS delays and denies any heat and significant severe weather for most of the latest 00Z 6/3 run. Looks like N Atlantic cutoff and remnant Greenland ridge hold for two weeks stalling the pattern and preventing heat and thunderstorm penetration into NYC, LI and New England for quite some time. 65-75 degree days until further notice, and low clouds for coastal areas for a portion of the time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Thunderstorm season doesn't begin here until the end of August. July is almost always dry around here. I agree to some degree, howeva, watch for those "ridge rollers" atop the h5 ridges that come thru. Models handle them with no degree of accuracy run to run, but they can be quite prolific svr wx producers from my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 First thunderstorms usually happen in April but the real season doesn't begin until late May and early June both growing in Queens and living on Long Island for the past 7 years. On the south shore, you'll have to get used to delayed thunderstorm seasons.... we usually do get some scattered activity from late May through June, and then there is usually a break, as the heat ridge gets established and the center of attention focuses further inland and north of us in July and early August.... then activity ramps up again as the jet stream starts to move south again starting in late August and continuing through September and October. This is also the time period when tropical activity can enhance thunderstorm activity, even if it moves well to our west. The influx of tropical moisture on a southerly flow can result in slow moving, drenching downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I agree to some degree, howeva, watch for those "ridge rollers" atop the h5 ridges that come thru. Models handle them with no degree of accuracy run to run, but they can be quite prolific svr wx producers from my memory. Ahhh, those can be quite exciting-- I love slow moving thunderstorms as well as fast moving squall lines.... lots of wind and hail reports with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'd be shocked if anyone in our zones falls below 45 for tonight. Even Albany is forecasting lows in the mid 40's up in the capital district. 850 mb temps support a max min tonight in NYC metro of about 55 or so and there are no conditions tonight that could take us much below the max min. The only chance of getting into the lower 40's tonight is for ideal radiational cooling and tonight is far from it. Winds are ripping at all levels. I more or less expect a fairly tight range of numbers tonight, even the north west burbs. I'm thinking that here in Rockland, I will stay above 50 tonight. I had a feeling temps were gonna stay up tonight. I am sitting at 56. That is a pretty huge bust, when they were going for lower 40's in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 On the south shore, you'll have to get used to delayed thunderstorm seasons.... we usually do get some scattered activity from late May through June, and then there is usually a break, as the heat ridge gets established and the center of attention focuses further inland and north of us in July and early August.... then activity ramps up again as the jet stream starts to move south again starting in late August and continuing through September and October. This is also the time period when tropical activity can enhance thunderstorm activity, even if it moves well to our west. The influx of tropical moisture on a southerly flow can result in slow moving, drenching downpours. In July and August is the peak of the thunderstorm season for NYC and LI. I loving the slow moving thunderstorms the best because there is prolong period of thunder and lightning and great heavy rain producers but alot time they screw area when they move from South to North direction. Usually the hit LI the best when they move from NW to SE from a Mullti-Cell or Squall line. By late September into the fall we then get less thunderstorm activity and more of this low-top convention along cold front call Narrow Cold Frontal Rainbands (NCFR). Alot of times they bring Severe Thunderstorm Warnings because they bring winds more than 58 mph down to the surface but there is almost always little to no lightning with it. Occasionally they could even bring small tornadoes which really they are called gustnadoes and think the event that happen in Septmeber of 2003 in NJ that a few tornadoes that had no thunder and lightning. There was several events similar that happen that fall and I think another gustando happened in Staten Island with low-topped convention (NCFR) with it. On radar it usually looks like a very thin line of thunderstorms but it is along a cold frontal rainband that alot times brings down strong winds that sometimes prompts severe thunderstorms warning but has no thunder and lightning with it. Sometime true thunderstorms do happen in the fall too. One positive thing about getting a NCFR that is leads to a pattern to winter and remember event happen last year on 12/1 that bring the pattern to winter which eventually led to the blizzard by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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