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June/July NYC Metro Wx Discussion


Dark Energy

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Well here on our summer vacation in Chatham MA, it's 59 degrees and breezy. Feels like winter compared to dante's inferno, NJ. Rained all last night and all afternoon today, probably got 2" or more. Should break to sunshine (hopefully) tomorrow. The folks are blaming this crappy weather on me, as I should have known this when the trip was set up 2 months ago. :gun_bandana:

Looks like I missed some action in this thread today. :pimp:

More action in this thread than in the weather!

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Warmth or not, I went swimming today in the 60 degree weather here on Cape Cod.

Last night I felt like I was living shutter island, window screens shaking from the rain and wind, thunder rolling, dense fog, fireplace going inside with the heat on.

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Warmth or not, I went swimming today in the 60 degree weather here on Cape Cod.

Last night I felt like I was living shutter island, window screens shaking from the rain and wind, thunder rolling, dense fog, fireplace going inside with the heat on.

Summer in New England. Got to get rid of these clouds.

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I know it's not my imagination -- we've definitely had a lot of these warm fronts stalling just SW of NYC this spring season. Usually Monmouth County is borderline but on the cool side, and PHL/SNJ are torching. Today looks to be another case of that.

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Im down in cape may. Looks like it was a great day to be in South Jersey with that temp gradient that set up.... today was decent on the beach, 3 hrs in the sun with no spf will roast you :lol: ..tomorrow looks like a pretty good beach today as well. hmu if anyone is down here :thumbsup: the ocean feels great and the girls are fine B)

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Looks like we'll have one more area of clouds to deal with, currently pushing east from PA. But right now its nice to see the sun! Those clouds are broken as well with peaks of sun so while I expect it to get a bit cloudier later, there will still be some sun.

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Some more on and off clouds today but another overall nice summer day. End of the week and July 4th weekend heat looks to continue a streak of 3 in a row good weekends after the back to back lousy ones we had earlier in June. It remains to be seen the extent and length of the heat but an above normal temps looks sustained into the first week of July.

It would be nice to get mostly sunny days

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Factors to look at for late Tuesday:

PWATS increase to over two inches.

Upper level trough becomes negatively tilted.

Timing of frontal passage not exactly ideal.

Weak upper level winds although we do have decent directional shear.

850 mb dewpoint over ten degrees Celsius.

850 mb Theta-E ridge passes through the area between 00Z and 06Z Wednesday.

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If we can keep nina weak and keep the blocking look out !!

nina, nino, no difference. As we saw last winter, a strong la Nina, we still got buried. Weather will do whatever it wants, regardless of past history and enso stage. Blocking helps of course.

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nina, nino, no difference. As we saw last winter, a strong la Nina, we still got buried. Weather will do whatever it wants, regardless of past history and enso stage. Blocking helps of course.

strong nina last winter really killed the duration of the snow and cold, so it does matter. A weak nina with strong blocking will give us a better chance at a long duration winter.

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strong nina last winter really killed the duration of the snow and cold, so it does matter. A weak nina with strong blocking will give us a better chance at a long duration winter.

If we had a 1995-96 or 1966-67 type la nina last winter we would have topped 100 inches.

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Updated.

Month of June for NYC:

Just using high temps...Red (2+ degrees above normal)

Blue (-2+ degrees above normal)

Black (within 2 degrees of normal)

1- 90 (average 76)

2- 81 (average 76)

3- 75 (average 76)

4- 75 (average 77)

5- 68 (average 77)

6- 82 (average 77)

7- 89 (average 77)

8- 97 (average 77)

9- 97 (average 78)

10-86 (average 78)

11-71 (average 78)

12-72 (average 78)

13-73 (average 79)

14-68 (average 79)

15-82 (average 79)

16-84 (average 80)

17-78 (average 80)

18-84 (average 80)

19-83 (average 80)

20-81 (average 80)

21-82 (average 81)

22-81 (average 81)

23-73 (average 81)

24-70 (average 81)

25-80 (average 82)

26-81 (average 82)

Above average - 11 of the 24 days

Below average - 7 of the 24 days

Average - 8 of the 24 days.

So its a 50/50 month so far. 13 days are average to below average and 11 days are above average. A nice mix for the entire board. Both heat lovers and cold lovers, have had their share this month.

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Agree very strongly. Same thing with 2009-2010. The nino got too strong.

The history of weak la ninas like 1966-67 and 1995-96 is that they have a very strong backside (Feb, Mar, even April)...... that would have been crazy if that happened..... imagine combining December and January of this past winter and the Feb/Mar/April of 1966-67 or 1995-96....

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