forkyfork Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I'm not sold on tomorrow being as warm as expected...NWS has 84F here but that seems high given 850s just 10C and weak N, not NW, flow. we mix all the way to 750 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 what are your thoughts on precip friday morning? The 12z GFS, 18z GFS, and 18z NAM all have some light showers Friday morning. However, the GFS trended much weaker with the H5 shortwave at 18z, not bringing the 570dm contour nearly as far south. We'll have to see if this is a trend or not as the guidance comes out for tonight. If the models continue to weaken the shortwave, then there may not be much doing. we mix all the way to 750 mb It's still a cool airmass, and Westchester gets good drainage of cooler air down the Hudson Valley when winds are due north. Without a downsloping component to the wind and the 10C 850mb contour only passing through at 18z, I just can't see mid 80s here. Sure we'll mix in plenty of drier air from the upper levels, which will keep dewpoints down and allow for good daytime heating, but I am still thinking 84F is a big number for my area. I could see 84F at EWR but probably not in Dobbs Ferry where the hills are forever engaged in spring. Your sounding only shows LGA a bit above 25C/77F, and they're almost always warmer than Dobbs Ferry by 5F or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 we mix all the way to 750 mb he lives on a mountain and will come in 10 degrees crew than everybody else within 60 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Your sounding only shows LGA a bit above 25C/77F, and they're almost always warmer than Dobbs Ferry by 5F or so. we go superadiabatic in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 he lives on a mountain and will come in 10 degrees crew than everybody else within 60 miles what are your thoughts on the rain friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 what are your thoughts on the rain friday morning? potential volleyball sized hail. hide the women and children, do not venture outdoors at anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I'm not sold on tomorrow being as warm as expected...NWS has 84F here but that seems high given 850s just 10C and weak N, not NW, flow. did you get that from point and click? i don't think they can account for every hill and valley. your text forecast says low 80s... if you hit 81, that's not a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 did you get that from point and click? i don't think they can account for every hill and valley. your text forecast says low 80s... if you hit 81, that's not a bust. I was just looking at point and click, which shows 84F for Dobbs Ferry. Seems warm, but given the text I guess they are really expecting a bit cooler, which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I was just looking at point and click, which shows 84F for Dobbs Ferry. Seems warm, but given the text I guess they are really expecting a bit cooler, which makes sense. Isn't Dobbs Ferry right on the Hudson, which is near/at sea level? And aren't you over 400 feet or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 he lives on a mountain and will come in 10 degrees crew than everybody else within 60 miles I'm much more enthusiastic about big time heat next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I'm much more enthusiastic about big time heat next week I don't know man, I want to see some better indications of what's going down. The models have been a total mess. I wasn't enthused with the 12z runs and last nights runs which had the mean trough too far east over the Central US. The trends are good, that's for sure. It looks like we may be seeing the beginning of the guidance shift towards the big heat---where they finally begin to grasp the true airmass in place over the plains and it's attendant release with the big west coast trough. we need that trough to dig on the west coast though. there's a ridge release/fluctuation very well modeled in under 7 days. But the placement of the trough is important. If it's east at that time, the ridge will be shunted a bit and the heat will be progressive. If it's west like it has been all year, the ridge will go bonkers and the shortwave trough will then eventually eject east but be forced northeast over the ridge into southeast Canada; as opposed to east into the central us. make at least semi sense? wasn't sure how to explain that non-graphically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I don't know man, I want to see some better indications of what's going down. The models have been a total mess. I wasn't enthused with the 12z runs and last nights runs which had the mean trough too far east over the Central US. The trends are good, that's for sure. It looks like we may be seeing the beginning of the guidance shift towards the big heat---where they finally begin to grasp the true airmass in place over the plains and it's attendant release with the big west coast trough. we need that trough to dig on the west coast though. there's a ridge release/fluctuation very well modeled in under 7 days. But the placement of the trough is important. If it's east at that time, the ridge will be shunted a bit and the heat will be progressive. If it's west like it has been all year, the ridge will go bonkers and the shortwave trough will then eventually eject east but be forced northeast over the ridge into southeast Canada; as opposed to east into the central us. make at least semi sense? wasn't sure how to explain that non-graphically. 0z GFS has the Plains storm/cutter too far east so the cold front gets through pretty fast and we never realize the heat in the long-range. Also, the pattern looks extremely wet with a tropical connection which may or may not be bogus. It's probably BS but any moisture could be an impediment to heat. I see what you mean about the S Plains ridge attempting to bleed into the Northeast since they're having such anomalous heat there, and the 0z GFS does have hints of this next week. However, it's not certain and may be thwarted by a quick cold front or a tropical hybrid system. Ideally, we want the western trough positioning to be a bit different so that the Plains low cuts further west towards Montana, allowing the cold front to wash out more and clear skies since we'd be further from the low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Low to mid 80's two days in a row--I am not complaining. Looks like a good setup for convection tomorrow over SNE down to Central LI on the west side of the ULL---by the way. Nothing severe but definitely a chance of some small hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Great day today in the tri-state area! Sun/clouds, 70s to low 80s. Slight chance of a t-storm east of NYC this evening. Increasing clouds tomorrow but some sun early. Still warm temps. 40% chance of shower/t-storm on Friday, cooler, 70s. Weekend looks good for now. Sun/clouds, mid 80s away from the coast, cooler there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I'm still convinced there's going to be a good amount of convection today over Southern New England stretching back towards Western New England and possibly even down towards Long Island. It should be interesting, given the positioning of the upper level low and advancing small area of vorticity, as the convection actually may build from north to south or even southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Isn't Dobbs Ferry right on the Hudson, which is near/at sea level? And aren't you over 400 feet or something? Yeah the downtown is usually a bit warmer than here as it's on the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Earthlight's favorite model the DGEX on its 6z run says that we don't get to 90 degrees once during its entire run and we only get into the 80's a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Earthlight's favorite model the DGEX on its 6z run says that we don't get to 90 degrees once during its entire run and we only get into the 80's a few times. Luckily it's been highly inconsistent as has most modeling in this time frame..the GFS flipped warmer at 6z...some other models got cooler. There a very nice heat ridge signal on the GFS in the long range too. Either way it's not my favorite model--I just think it's laughed at by most people when it shouldn't be. It's a really useful tool if you know how to interpret what it's trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I would like a warm stormy pattern with some good thunderstorm chances to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 NAM MOS has 86 for EWR tomorrow..my gut says it verifies above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Pretty quiet pattern if you ask me..no big heat,severe weather or tropical activity..oh well enjoy the nice weather this weekend! http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Nice storms early tomorrow morning: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f27.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f30.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 SPC WRF had a similar feature tonight into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Thats a boat load of rain in a short time on both NAM and SPC. Flash flooding can be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Yes sir. I'd prefer to see the 12z SPC WRF before I really get stoked about heavy rain/storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 12z GFS on board as well. Seems like the heaviest rain will be very early morning. 3am-9am timeline. GFS bulleyes part of Jersey with over 1.50" of rain and NYC with about 1". NAM has more for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 The heavy thunderstorm/flood potential is there Friday with a closed low and a nice moisture feed into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I'm still convinced there's going to be a good amount of convection today over Southern New England stretching back towards Western New England and possibly even down towards Long Island. It should be interesting, given the positioning of the upper level low and advancing small area of vorticity, as the convection actually may build from north to south or even southwest. Good call John. Four loud claps of thunder here in the last minute. Nothing showing on radar yet. It must be blowing up very quickly. Maybe a bit of a seabreeze front helping out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Good call John. Four loud claps of thunder here in the last minute. Nothing showing on radar yet. It must be blowing up very quickly. Maybe a bit of a seabreeze front helping out? Tiny storm right near your location on GR2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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