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June/July NYC Metro Wx Discussion


Dark Energy

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Being that today busted, thinking predictions for the whole month to be stormy are premature at this point.

I was nearly stating what isotherm and HM have talked about. I guess you don't think they are good forecasters. Thats fine. I wasn;'t really high on convection chances today myself. I talked about that in another thread.

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I was nearly stating what isotherm and HM have talked about. I guess you don't think they are good forecasters. Thats fine. I wasn;'t really high on convection chances today myself. I talked about that in another thread.

You guys all nailed today. Today was big disappointed. Now on to strech of boring weather which I will enjoy a few nice days ahead but I am going to be going through my thunderstorm withdrawal like alot people go through their snow withdrawal .

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I was nearly stating what isotherm and HM have talked about. I guess you don't think they are good forecasters. Thats fine. I wasn;'t really high on convection chances today myself. I talked about that in another thread.

It has nothing to do with what I think of those forecasters, it has to do with the general accuracy of long range forecasting.

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Why is everyone ignoring the scattered t-storm threat coming Saturday night. It's not a widespread outbreak, but it is something, and everyone is talking like we're not going to see a drop of rain.

And these are usually the events where NYC gets activity. The ones that look like nothing.

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Why is everyone ignoring the scattered t-storm threat coming Saturday night. It's not a widespread outbreak, but it is something, and everyone is talking like we're not going to see a drop of rain.

Not only that though there have been times where scattered thunderstorms were forecast and we got severe storms with it, I think Saturday night is def something to watch for as far as our next chance for any thunderstorm activity period.....the expectations will certainly be a lot lower than yesterday that's for sure

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it might get as low as 55 tomorrow morning but that's still not that cool for June 3rd...The last time we saw the 40's in Central Park in June was 49 on 6/7/2000...

Last year the coolest minimum was 57...2009 was 50 and 2008 57...Average long term minimum is 52...

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I think Upton is too low with temps tonight north and west... too much wind at all levels to get these low of a temperature. They are going for lower 40's by me.. I think upper 40's to around 50 is more realistic

They are basing the temps and blending it from the NAM and GFS. The NAM tends to have a cold bias. I won't knock upton for that at all. NAM has temps for LI in the low 40's for tonight and tomorrow night. GFS has temps in the upper 40's to near 50 for LI and low to mid 50's for the city. I believe it will be in the 50-55 F for the city and 45-50 F for LI with some lower 40's in colder spots and even isolated upper 30's in far NW areas in the highest elevation where frost could happen there. I still believe we will few nice days but I feeling we may pay for a chilly rainy day with possibly Noreaster like system with temps in the 50's and 60's before transitioning back into a summer pattern again.

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Mt holly has raised their minimums to the mid 40s well north and west to low 50s in Somerset/middlesex. So I'd expect most urban areas to stay in the mid 50s

I think Upton is too low with temps tonight north and west... too much wind at all levels to get these low of a temperature. They are going for lower 40's by me.. I think upper 40's to around 50 is more realistic

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Especially when they're warm frontal.

It looks wait either Tuesday night or better next Thursday with a warm front. This makes more sense to me.

This is from Upton.

D MID ATLANTIC COASTS...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST.THEREAFTER...THE AREA WILL LIE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND AN INLAND HEAT RIDGE. BEST CHANCESFOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE TUEAFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH EITHER AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT PER GFS ORINLAND THERMAL TROUGH PER ECMWF...THEN THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AWARM FRONT NEARBY AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS.

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It looks wait either Tuesday night or better next Thursday with a warm front. This makes more sense to me.

This is from Upton.

D MID ATLANTIC COASTS...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST.THEREAFTER...THE AREA WILL LIE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW AND AN INLAND HEAT RIDGE. BEST CHANCESFOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE TUEAFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH EITHER AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT PER GFS ORINLAND THERMAL TROUGH PER ECMWF...THEN THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AWARM FRONT NEARBY AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS.

So you're totally ignoring Saturday night because Upton doesn't buy it?

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