flwxwatcher45 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 This mornings Tampa AFD mentioning some much needed rainy days could be on the way this week. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST COMING UP AS COMPLEX SERIES OF EVENTS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDY WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF RAINS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EDGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BECOMES INVOLVED WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVES EAST...AND THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BRING 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE TROUGH MAY LIFT OUT ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT. THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THAT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BE APPROACHING...WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OF LATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Starting Thursday it's looking more and more like this might be a drought buster scenario. Lets keep our fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Starting Thursday it's looking more and more like this might be a drought buster scenario. Lets keep our fingers crossed. Yep, models and all the state forecast offices are indicating some much needed rain is on the way. Lets hope this time it does come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Yep, models and all the state forecast offices are indicating some much needed rain is on the way. Lets hope this time it does come true. Melbourne not bullish as much as Tampa but in the same room. THU-NEXT MON (MODIFIED PREV)...PATTERN TRANSITIONS LATE WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT IS DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A MID LVL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS FORECAST TO RISE AT OR ABOVE 2.0" INCHES FROM FRI ONWARD. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS AND RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK SOUTH OF CTRL FL. CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FCST CONTINUES TO INDICATE 30/40 POPS EACH DAY...AND MAY EVEN NEED TO RAISE SOME FOR FRI-SUN. TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS GIVE THE HIGHER POPS/MORE CLOUDS...WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Melbourne not bullish as much as Tampa but in the same room. THU-NEXT MON (MODIFIED PREV)...PATTERN TRANSITIONS LATE WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT IS DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A MID LVL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS FORECAST TO RISE AT OR ABOVE 2.0" INCHES FROM FRI ONWARD. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS AND RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK SOUTH OF CTRL FL. CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FCST CONTINUES TO INDICATE 30/40 POPS EACH DAY...AND MAY EVEN NEED TO RAISE SOME FOR FRI-SUN. TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS GIVE THE HIGHER POPS/MORE CLOUDS...WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND. Tampa is even more bullish today but what caught my eye is the comment about the long range after this trough passes. It sounds like the rainy pattern may be ready to hang around for awhile. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. THE FEED FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF ON SUNDAY ALLOWING THE REGION TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.1 INCHES SO EXPECT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO BE QUITE ACTIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The only caveat through Sunday is the the storm motion will be west to east so west coasters and those just inland may miss out. However the east coast will get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 A major snoooooze fest in here! Melbourne is getting a bit more bullish on Fri - Sun and although the below info does not mention it, there are 60% chances out now for Saturday around my parts. I can not remember the last time I saw 50%, let alone 60%. .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC CAUSING WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH...INTRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA AS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A COOL DOWN. FRIDAY...MULTIPLE FEATURES ARE SETTING UP TO PROVIDE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...PLACING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS ENHANCEMENT IN CONVERGENCE AND RISING MOTION...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST 50 PERCENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 This has been going on literlly the entire morning KMIA 241253Z 25003KT 10SM FC FEW020TCU BKN250 29/22 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD B51 E MOV STNRY AO2 SLP158 TCU NE-SE T02890222= KMIA 241320Z 19004KT 10SM FC FEW020TCU BKN250 29/23 A3000 RMK AO2 FUNNEL CLOUD B51 9E AND 9SE OVER WATER MOV STNRY TCU NE-SE= KMIA 241343Z 00000KT 10SM FEW020CB SCT090 BKN250 30/23 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD E42 AO2 FUNNEL CLOUD B51 9E AND 9SE OVER WATER MOV STNRY TCU NE-SE= KMIA 241343Z COR 00000KT 10SM FEW020CB SCT090 BKN250 30/23 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD E42 AO2 CB NE-E MOV N TCU SE-S= KMIA 241353Z VRB03KT 10SM FEW020CB SCT090 BKN250 30/23 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD E42 AO2 SLP158 CB NE-E MOV N TCU SE-S T03000233= Some pic's I grabbed. I really wished I had my camera, not just my crappy phone camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 A major snoooooze fest in here! Melbourne is getting a bit more bullish on Fri - Sun and although the below info does not mention it, there are 60% chances out now for Saturday around my parts. I can not remember the last time I saw 50%, let alone 60%. Tampa remains bullish also, 60% chances for rain in my parts the next few days as well. Tampa AFD sounds promising for some storms and heavy rains. FXUS62 KTBW 241345 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 945 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 .UPDATE... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. MORNING TBW SOUNDING IS SHOWING THIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES. MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AS EXPECTED WITH CAPE NEAR 4000 AND LIFTED INDEX OF -9. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 500 MB AROUND -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UP AROUND 15000 FEET. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES VERY SLOW STORM MOTION FROM 220 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THEREFORE... ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE WET MICROBURST AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 This has been going on literlly the entire morning KMIA 241253Z 25003KT 10SM FC FEW020TCU BKN250 29/22 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD B51 E MOV STNRY AO2 SLP158 TCU NE-SE T02890222= KMIA 241320Z 19004KT 10SM FC FEW020TCU BKN250 29/23 A3000 RMK AO2 FUNNEL CLOUD B51 9E AND 9SE OVER WATER MOV STNRY TCU NE-SE= KMIA 241343Z 00000KT 10SM FEW020CB SCT090 BKN250 30/23 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD E42 AO2 FUNNEL CLOUD B51 9E AND 9SE OVER WATER MOV STNRY TCU NE-SE= KMIA 241343Z COR 00000KT 10SM FEW020CB SCT090 BKN250 30/23 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD E42 AO2 CB NE-E MOV N TCU SE-S= KMIA 241353Z VRB03KT 10SM FEW020CB SCT090 BKN250 30/23 A3000 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD E42 AO2 SLP158 CB NE-E MOV N TCU SE-S T03000233= Some pic's I grabbed. I really wished I had my camera, not just my crappy phone camera Show off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami/Hartford Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I have never seen so many funnel clouds lined up from north to south. At one point there were two waterspouts, this one and a skinnier one near Key Biscayne. I took the picture from my balcony located in the Edgewater neighborhood of Miami, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I have never seen so many funnel clouds lined up from north to south. At one point there were two waterspouts, this one and a skinnier one near Key Biscayne. I took the picture from my balcony located in the Edgewater neighborhood of Miami, It was crazy right? At one point I saw 4 at a time, it's just they were too far apart for my phone to catch in a single pic, or one was visible while the other was behind a tree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bic Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 It was crazy right? At one point I saw 4 at a time, it's just they were too far apart for my phone to catch in a single pic, or one was visible while the other was behind a tree! Oh man, I'm so upset I missed this! I live right on the beach and would have had a great view of it. What time was this going down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Oh man, I'm so upset I missed this! I live right on the beach and would have had a great view of it. What time was this going down? It was all from maybe 8:45 - 9:45 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 It was crazy right? At one point I saw 4 at a time, it's just they were too far apart for my phone to catch in a single pic, or one was visible while the other was behind a tree! Now I'm jealous, how about you send some of that central Florida's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 awesome pics! I heard early this morning that "numerous" waterspouts were possible in deep southeast FL. I would say those pics VERIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Very strange looking sky out there today. Almost pitch black from time to time. No rain though, It's all out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bic Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I have never seen so many funnel clouds lined up from north to south. At one point there were two waterspouts, this one and a skinnier one near Key Biscayne. I took the picture from my balcony located in the Edgewater neighborhood of Miami, Oh wow, I just took another look at this picture and realized that I can see my apartment near the funnel! I was sound asleep at the time so I had no idea what was going on so close by. DAMN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Nice cloud formations when the storms rolled in today. Sorry for the bad quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 So much good Mother Nature NECTAR for FL today! Good news .... even as MBY stays a complete dust bowl. No measurable precip for me but the tide is turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 So much good Mother Nature NECTAR for FL today! Good news .... even as MBY stays a complete dust bowl. No measurable precip for me but the tide is turning. I thought I was going to miss the fun today but in the last hour or so a toad strangler storm has dumped a shade over 2 inches of rain in my North Lakeland local and still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 I thought I was going to miss the fun today but in the last hour or so a toad strangler storm has dumped a shade over 2 inches of rain in my North Lakeland local and still coming down. Big Time precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Big Time precip It has slowed to a steady rain now but I am approaching 3 inches from this storm.. The storm total precip map show a good chunk of Central Florida has picked up some good rain amounts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Things looking good for another active day. Hoping we can get some sun to help fire some stronger storms. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY HOWEVER BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL PROVIDE A CATALYST FOR NEARLY 4000 J/KG OF CAPE TO IGNITE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS - ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND RESULTANT CONVERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 The sky's looked nasty around these parts yesterday but only got a small amount. Hopefully today is different. Softparade can't believe you are still dry over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 The sky's looked nasty around these parts yesterday but only got a small amount. Hopefully today is different. Softparade can't believe you are still dry over there. Things starting to fire up now and it looks like another active day. Hopefully all of us will get in on the fun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 The sky's looked nasty around these parts yesterday but only got a small amount. Hopefully today is different. Softparade can't believe you are still dry over there. yep, I got some nice cool breeze action and the musty smell of it yesterday but not a drop in my immediate area. Nothing yet today and the radar is not looking good. Hoping something boils up. Still, it is good to see rain in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 yep, I got some nice cool breeze action and the musty smell of it yesterday but not a drop in my immediate area. Nothing yet today and the radar is not looking good. Hoping something boils up. Still, it is good to see rain in many areas. Softparade , where do you live on the East Coast?? While things have settled down here in Central Florida, it looks like some activity is picking up around the lake and Palm beach and Broward counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 Softparade , where do you live on the East Coast?? While things have settled down here in Central Florida, it looks like some activity is picking up around the lake and Palm beach and Broward counties Port St. Lucie West .... just south of where 95 and the Pike converge near Fort Pierce. Not a drop today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 It looks like that trough over the gulf, plus 2400 j/kg cape and 2.17" PWs will keep things convectively active in S. Fl throughout the night. Nice quasi-linear band coming in from the south as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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