turtlehurricane Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Essentially, the dry season hasn't started yet in southeast Florida. Below 70 dewpoints and less than an inch of rain in 2 months = dry season in anyone's book. The next dry season could start as early as September 24 or late as November 5 based on records. October 15 is the mid-point, so if the rainy season started tomorrow (6/7/2011) it would be 128 days long. That is already below average, and a mere 10 days bigger than the record low. And the wet season still really isn't in the forecast yet. Our best bet is some low-level moisture with a remnant swirl... some lucky spot might get an inch or 2. Also, this is the latest wet season start by 4 days already, which is incredible. It's about to get unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Essentially, the dry season hasn't started yet in southeast Florida. Below 70 dewpoints and less than an inch of rain in 2 months = dry season in anyone's book. The next dry season could start as early as September 24 or late as November 5 based on records. October 15 is the mid-point, so if the rainy season started tomorrow (6/7/2011) it would be 128 days long. That is already below average, and a mere 10 days bigger than the record low. And the wet season still really isn't in the forecast yet. Our best bet is some low-level moisture with a remnant swirl... some lucky spot might get an inch or 2. Also, this is the latest wet season start by 4 days already, which is incredible. It's about to get unprecedented. I guess Florida better hope we get some action from the tropics this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Essentially, the dry season hasn't started yet in southeast Florida. Below 70 dewpoints and less than an inch of rain in 2 months = dry season in anyone's book. The next dry season could start as early as September 24 or late as November 5 based on records. October 15 is the mid-point, so if the rainy season started tomorrow (6/7/2011) it would be 128 days long. That is already below average, and a mere 10 days bigger than the record low. And the wet season still really isn't in the forecast yet. Our best bet is some low-level moisture with a remnant swirl... some lucky spot might get an inch or 2. Also, this is the latest wet season start by 4 days already, which is incredible. It's about to get unprecedented. Only five days left until the latest official start of the wet season IMBY since 2000 as highlighted in the first post in this thread. The latest end did not make it to Halloween around here execpt 2007 which made it to 11/3. Last year it was that lame mess Nicole that ushered in the Chamber of Commerce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 As far as the rainy season start, yes dewpoints have been lower than normal, which of course we don't expect to see this time of year. We have already had a few periods of higher dewpoints going back to mid-April which have lasted several days in a row, but mixed in with these late dry periods. The start of the rainy season can be modified after the fact, it's not something that is set in stone once it's "officially" declared. Some years it's easy, some it's hard (like this year). In the end, it's not really that big of a deal to try to pin down the exact date it starts, but its impacts once it does start. BTW, the 70 degree dewpoint criteria is one that had never been proven scientifically. In other words, they just thought it was a nice, round number they could use. We have to think of these things scientifically, and it's probable that a dewpoint of 67 or 68 could be just as important as 70. That's why I don't place great emphasis on the 70 degree dewpoints. Instead, we should start looking at other things such as precipitable water in the lower levels of the atmosphere, instability, sea surface temperatures, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 When will it ever rain again here? I have never seen it so ridiculous I feel like I'm living in Phoenix again. We are in June for Christ sakes and still can't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Tampa AFD from this morning highlights the unceratin nature of the forecast for the upcoming week. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A LOW SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND THE GFS DRIFTS THE LOW WESTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF AND DGEX OPEN IT UP AND PULL IT NORTHEAST INTO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE WHERE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF AND DGEX TAKE IT NORTHEAST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THESE DIFFERING SCENARIOS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 50-60 POPS BASED ON THE GFS WHICH BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO 20-30 POPS BASED ON THE ECMWF/DGEX WHICH KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Huge smoke plume on vis emanating from western Miami-Dade county. The fire must be getting huge. Gonna try to look for it from the roof in a little while, might be able to see it here on Virginia Key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 When will it ever rain again here? I have never seen it so ridiculous I feel like I'm living in Phoenix again. We are in June for Christ sakes and still can't get anything. Well, sometimes S. Florida's diurnal rain regime begins in mid-May, sometimes in early-June, sometimes in mid-late June ---- basically when a mid level trough sets up in the east Gulf for the first time. Hang your hat on this 84 Hr. Nam, 60 hr precip map, for a little hope: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Well, sometimes S. Florida's diurnal rain regime begins in mid-May, sometimes in early-June, sometimes in mid-late June ---- basically when a mid level trough sets up in the east Gulf for the first time. Hang your hat on this 84 Hr. Nam, 60 hr precip map, for a little hope: ECMWF came in a little wetter, but as far as drought-reversing precip, the NAM currently stands alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 ECMWF came in a little wetter, but as far as drought-reversing precip, the NAM currently stands alone. Yea, the EURO and CMC shunt most of the moisture offshore with the GFS having a wetter solution and of course the good old NAM bringing the toad strangling rainfall solution to the table. Sounds like most of the Florida weather offices are tossing the NAM in the trash bin. Still doing my rain dance.. Turtle.. what's your thoughts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Huge smoke plume on vis emanating from western Miami-Dade county. The fire must be getting huge. Gonna try to look for it from the roof in a little while, might be able to see it here on Virginia Key. The Miami AFD also mentions the smoke plume can be seen on radar returns. LARGE BRUSH FIRE CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN METRO SECTIONS OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY WITH BOTH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88-D RADAR RETURNS INDICATING A PLUME OF SMOKE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 The Miami AFD also mentions the smoke plume can be seen on radar returns. I saw it on my commute home, off to the west of the beginning of I-75. It is a huge fire already, and it's heading towards the middle of nowhere where they can't fight it/don't have much of a reason to fight it, so it'll only get bigger. The radar signature is very impressive, parts of the plume are around 40 dBZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Yea, the EURO and CMC shunt most of the moisture offshore with the GFS having a wetter solution and of course the good old NAM bringing the toad strangling rainfall solution to the table. Sounds like most of the Florida weather offices are tossing the NAM in the trash bin. Still doing my rain dance.. Turtle.. what's your thoughts??? My call for some spots lucking out with an inch or two at some point in the next week is still what I'm going with. This disturbance just isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 A little brush fire has broken out in western Hialeah. The day is ending, which means winds will be slowing, so I'm sure they'll get it under control in the next few hours without much fanfare. But this is just an illustration of how flammable things are getting even in the metro areas. http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/22004517444043/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Up to 6100 acres now, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Well, sometimes S. Florida's diurnal rain regime begins in mid-May, sometimes in early-June, sometimes in mid-late June ---- basically when a mid level trough sets up in the east Gulf for the first time. Hang your hat on this 84 Hr. Nam, 60 hr precip map, for a little hope: eye candy and wx porn at its best considering how dry it has been. Nam at 84 is lol so ..... one day at a time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Up to 6100 acres now, wow. jesus, hopefully at least some big snakes are being BBQ'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 My call for some spots lucking out with an inch or two at some point in the next week is still what I'm going with. This disturbance just isn't much. An inch or two to anybody would be a windfall! Any thoughts on which spots this may be more likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Up to 6100 acres now, wow. Whoaaaaaa. that will be burning for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 An inch or two to anybody would be a windfall! Any thoughts on which spots this may be more likely? Agreed, I would love to be able to have a couple of inches of rain in the old rain bucket . On another note, does anybody know if there are any EURO model precip totals maps on the net ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 While not as bullish with the rain as the NAM, the GFS gives most of Florida some much needed rain over the next week. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F07%2F2011+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The fires are burning at full force throughout the night. This is surprising since winds have calmed down, but the fire cluster may be at the point where it's generating its own inflow, due to the evacuation of mass upwards from fire heating up the air, and it may be mixing momentum down too from the faster winds aloft in the decoupled free atmosphere. I expect a firestorm tomorrow due to winds gusting to 25 mph and RHs in the 50s! These conditions are more like the great plains than Florida. Who knows, maybe if it gets moist enough we could get some pyrocumulus storms out in the Everglades. 7,400 acres so far from the latest report I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Wow, it's been dropping into the 50s at night in parts of the Everglades! That's unheard of. Definitely the drought at work. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=STA5X&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL The obs say suspect, but that's just because it was so anomalous. I believe the gauge was working just fine based on the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Wow, it's been dropping into the 50s at night in parts of the Everglades! That's unheard of. Definitely the drought at work. http://mesowest.utah...&timetype=LOCAL The obs say suspect, but that's just because it was so anomalous. I believe the gauge was working just fine based on the data. Yea you guys are seriously looking at some dry conditions... you normally never see such a large diurnal variation in temperatures down in the everglades this time of year. Here is just a good example comparing this year to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I find it quite annoying that NOAA called May 26th as the "official start" of the rainy season in sofla via the Miami office AFD. They mentioned the popcorn storms (that had come streaming in on the easterlies from the bahamas that day and the day prior) as the main reason for the call, and that conditions had become favorable for t-storm development. I don't have a link (maybe someone knows how to view the AFD from a couple weeks back? I just don't know). Immediately after that AFD DP's dropped back into the mid 60's and have stayed there ever since. Not a drop of rain down here, not a single sign that things are changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/21004522967610/ WEST MIAMI-DADE, Fla. (WSVN) -- More than 14,000 acres of undeveloped land has burned, four days after a brush fire ignited. Wednesday, fire crews said they have not gained control of the blaze. Officials said the fire is moving at an estimated eight miles per day. "This is some of the most extreme fire behavior that I've seen in the 25 years that I've been here," said Florida Division of Forestry Deputy Chief David Utley. A 10-mile stretch of Krome Avenue remains closed for a third day. Wednesday morning, crews said the fire was moving in the direction of some tourist attractions. "If it continues the movement of what it did yesterday, then it will be creeping down towards the north entrance of the Everglades National Park and Shark Valley," said Utley. No homes are in the line of fire just yet, but winds and dry conditions means that things could change at any moment. "There's about 100 residents south of the trail, west of Shark Valley, if the fire does keep progressing in that direction, we're going to need to evaluate what we need to do with those homes," said Utley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Jville now saying next week for better rain chances. Seems like each week it keeps getting pushed back. I'm sure the counties are now contemplating not giving out licenses to vendors selling fireworks. Oh well, I didn't want to cut the grass this year anyway. Long term... hopes for any moisture to overspread the are from the northwestern Caribbean Sea are quickly fading as the system is very sheared at the moment. In addition even the most aggressive of the models is bring the low...and its precipitation field...to the east of the forecast area. As we move into the weekend the upper ridge will begin to break down and will be replaced by troughing along the East Coast. This may in turn enhance the possibility of diurnal convection across most of the area into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Jville now saying next week for better rain chances. Seems like each week it keeps getting pushed back. I'm sure the counties are now contemplating not giving out licenses to vendors selling fireworks. Oh well, I didn't want to cut the grass this year anyway. Long term... hopes for any moisture to overspread the are from the northwestern Caribbean Sea are quickly fading as the system is very sheared at the moment. In addition even the most aggressive of the models is bring the low...and its precipitation field...to the east of the forecast area. As we move into the weekend the upper ridge will begin to break down and will be replaced by troughing along the East Coast. This may in turn enhance the possibility of diurnal convection across most of the area into early next week. Yea, it looks like most of the Caribbean moisture moves east of the state ( except the Candian) and like you said ,looks like we have to wait a week or so until things start picking up rainfall-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Yea, it looks like most of the Caribbean moisture moves east of the state ( except the Candian) and like you said ,looks like we have to wait a week or so until things start picking up rainfall-wise. There's actually some decent scattered showers around Lake Okeechobee. Probably heavy downpours with those, and there's no lightning being detected. Best day in awhile but still not much. I drove by the fire again and there's definitely some pyrocumulus associated with it. You can see shafts of ash raining down from the plume too. If only we could get a heavy downpour over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Just upped to 28,000 acres!!! Press conference shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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