toad strangler Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Has the board been down for you guys periodically the last 2 days? Indeed it has been. Guys, I am pretty damn impressed with the models post last Saturday afternoon. They were HORRIBLE beforehand. What a difference. The whole dropsonde data thing was not until Monday or Tuesday. What on Earth made them all get with the program all of the sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Back to the usual. I had a surprise 3/4" today in Port Saint Lucie from a small pop up and have been racking up some nice totals in August. Just above normal for the month now. I hope September does the same before the onset of the dry season draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 September rain can be on the low side. At least up this way. The sea breeze isn't as big a factor as previous months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Lets get the hype going. TD 12 is on its way. Right now it's only 3765 miles away from MBY. On it's current track that means it will be here in 10 days and 11 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Lets get the hype going. TD 12 is on its way. Right now it's only 3765 miles away from MBY. On it's current track that means it will be here in 10 days and 11 hours. BTW, today we should see some nice storms. From Melbourne ... .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FORMING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLIER TODAY AND AS IT PUSHES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON IT WILL TRIGGER LIGHTNING STORMS. THE INTERACTION OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEABREEZES WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST OF ORLANDOAND INTERSTATE 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Continued improvement in our drought. A plus side September and we should be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 September is finally here! Time to watch the long range GFS and hope for the prediction of the long awaited first cold front. Unfortunately, that is probably over a month away, but at least we are nearing the finish line to the endless hot and humid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 September is finally here! Time to watch the long range GFS and hope for the prediction of the long awaited first cold front. Unfortunately, that is probably over a month away, but at least we are nearing the finish line to the endless hot and humid summer. September started off on the Treasure Coast with a good rain post twilight . An hour and a half with 45 minutes of that a good moderate and briefly heavy soaking rain with minor lightening and thunder. Very near an inch to start the month with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 September started off on the Treasure Coast with a good rain post twilight . An hour and a half with 45 minutes of that a good moderate and briefly heavy soaking rain with minor lightening and thunder. Very near an inch to start the month with Only 0.04" here but the overnight lows are at least consistently dropping into the upper 70s now. We had 74 for a low on Wednesday morning. It's a start, I'll take it over the lows of 80-82 that we had for most of the past 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Climatologically speaking we get our first cold front in about 5 weeks. Usually just a brief cool down then back into the sauna. Last night we hit 69 but that was more because of the NE wind. I see the day 5 track for Katia is now bending westward instead of northward. mmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Check this out from this mornings Jville discussion. Ts Lee or the remnants thereof will lift across Alabama and into northern Georgia Monday night into Tuesday. The models have trended toward a faster solution as a vigorous upper trough and associated front merge with the tropical system. Dry air will wrap around the west and south side of the departing low with a cold front now expected to advance into the area Monday night with growing potential for a squall line type feature to move across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado will be possible. A wind headline will also be needed on Tuesday as a strong low level jet moves over the area. There is potential for winds to gust between 30 and 40 miles per hour. Timing is still an issue but overall the models are trending faster with the dry slot behind the cold front. If this trend continues we will need to adjust probability of precipitation down on Wednesday as the latest GFS shows precipitable waters crashing below an inch Tuesday night. A much drier pattern will then close out the work week with below normal temperatures expected. Gotta love it. Our first cold front in September?? Even a slight cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Check this out from this mornings Jville discussion. Ts Lee or the remnants thereof will lift across Alabama and into northern Georgia Monday night into Tuesday. The models have trended toward a faster solution as a vigorous upper trough and associated front merge with the tropical system. Dry air will wrap around the west and south side of the departing low with a cold front now expected to advance into the area Monday night with growing potential for a squall line type feature to move across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado will be possible. A wind headline will also be needed on Tuesday as a strong low level jet moves over the area. There is potential for winds to gust between 30 and 40 miles per hour. Timing is still an issue but overall the models are trending faster with the dry slot behind the cold front. If this trend continues we will need to adjust probability of precipitation down on Wednesday as the latest GFS shows precipitable waters crashing below an inch Tuesday night. A much drier pattern will then close out the work week with below normal temperatures expected. Gotta love it. Our first cold front in September?? Even a slight cool down. I am all for a short lived cool front as it will make for great yard work weather BUT, I am not in favor of a early start to the dry season. Last year pitiful Nicole is what brought in the DS in early October I think it was. Let's order up a real TC deluge before the endless beautiful wx starts so we are not fretting so much about another start to drought conditions and early fire danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Wow this place sure is quiet. Any way TD 14 formed today, Cape Verde. Also I 96 in the BOC. Thursday afternoon it's supposed to be in the upper 80's with lower humidity. then mid 60's Thursday night. The cool weather is coming early. As we get into September the daily rains aren't as frequent anymore up here in north central Florida. The drop off in rainfall can be huge sometimes. Last year I went from over 7 inches in August to under 2 in September. Then 0 for all over October. Hopefully we'll get some tropical action so things don't get too dry right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 Wow this place sure is quiet. Any way TD 14 formed today, Cape Verde. Also I 96 in the BOC. Thursday afternoon it's supposed to be in the upper 80's with lower humidity. then mid 60's Thursday night. The cool weather is coming early. As we get into September the daily rains aren't as frequent anymore up here in north central Florida. The drop off in rainfall can be huge sometimes. Last year I went from over 7 inches in August to under 2 in September. Then 0 for all over October. Hopefully we'll get some tropical action so things don't get too dry right away. FL posters FTL losing flwxwatcher hurt alot. I check in everyday but there is only so many posts you can make before it looks like talking to yourself BTW, your concerns of precip dropoff are warranted which is why we all need a big September and October to avoid dry season blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm here but what can I say? It's hot and humid? LOL. I mean if you want me to say that everyday I can. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 This is insane weather for September 7th. At 11AM is 76 with both DP and humidity at 60!! Temperatures in the panhandle are in the freakin mid 60's. This is the earliest in my 11 years up here that I remember a cold front making it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 This is insane weather for September 7th. At 11AM is 76 with both DP and humidity at 60!! Temperatures in the panhandle are in the freakin mid 60's. This is the earliest in my 11 years up here that I remember a cold front making it through. Wow ... I don't think I remember temps like that. Turn the air off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm here but what can I say? It's hot and humid? LOL. I mean if you want me to say that everyday I can. LOL. True, I am just a nerd for rainfall amounts and stuff. If you go and get yourself a nice rain gauge you will post more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 toad strangler alert in St. Lucie County. MBY was inundated while I was at work as I came home to ponding everywhere. I can always tell in regards to how much mulch gets flooded out of the beds and today was the worst mulch release since I have been in my house. Drought busting rains continue FTW Rain gauge says 2.25 FWIW and September is off to the races for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I saw those storms converging in your area yesterday. Man they looked healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 The long-range GFS is bringing a dry, north-northeasterly flow into South Florida next week, assisted by Maria and high pressure over the northern Gulf. I think the solution is a little far-fetched, and it obviously depends on the current forecasted track/intensity of Maria verifying, but it would be awesome if we can even get the dew point below 70 for a few days. There might be a Caribbean tropical threat in the week after that as well. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Haven't been around much lately. Had a nasty case of mono and pneumonia. Better now. Saw a couple of bolts from the blue today. One of them literally went horizontally out the side of a thunderstorm, then straight down to the ground under clear skies. I hope it didn't hit anyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 Haven't been around much lately. Had a nasty case of mono and pneumonia. Better now. Saw a couple of bolts from the blue today. One of them literally went horizontally out the side of a thunderstorm, then straight down to the ground under clear skies. I hope it didn't hit anyone! ugh, glad you feel better. yeah, those rogue bolts worry me when my kids are in the yard. They just come out of nowhere in a seemingly fair sky. I love storms but I have zero trust in lightening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 63 degrees this morning. Brrrr. 23 years ago when I lived in Cleveland I had no problem working in a T shirt in 10 degree weather. Now I get cold at 60. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 63 degrees this morning. Brrrr. 23 years ago when I lived in Cleveland I had no problem working in a T shirt in 10 degree weather. Now I get cold at 60. Go figure. I am so on board with this! Just replace Cleveland with the Jersey shore! The only difference is I don't get cold at 60 or even 50 yet BUT I do break out the long stuff to say I can lol! 63 huh? Man ..... nowhere near that IMBY on the Treasure Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 63 degrees this morning. Brrrr. 23 years ago when I lived in Cleveland I had no problem working in a T shirt in 10 degree weather. Now I get cold at 60. Go figure. I don't think I've seen 63 since March. Maybe even late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Man look at all that dry air. Looks like the rainy season may be ending early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Man look at all that dry air. Looks like the rainy season may be ending early. And the tropics have been a big ol bag of crap all year but it is still early to be concerned about shutting off the rainy season. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 October is the month to watch the tropics in Florida anyway. We still have 5-6 weeks to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Man look at all that dry air. Looks like the rainy season may be ending early. And the tropics have been a big ol bag of crap all year but it is still early to be concerned about shutting off the rainy season. IMO. Once this trough lifts out, the easterlies will return and moisten us back up by Sun. We're getting to that time of year where diurnal convection over the peninsula becomes a bit less dominant (slightly less solar heating over land combined with peak SSTs makes for a weaker T gradient). So this combined with increasing instability over the Gulf and Bahamas next week should allow for numerous showers to develop over the ocean and hit the coast, and a bit less of the interior convection we've seen so much of. Personally I'm looking forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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