MJW155 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 How is Dr. Knabb as far as predicting tropical weather? He was pretty adament on the Weather Channel about people in Florida needing to keep an eye on this. He was basically hinting that the models are too far to the left and he has seen in the past where they shifted right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 How is Dr. Knabb as far as predicting tropical weather? He was pretty adament on the Weather Channel about people in Florida needing to keep an eye on this. He was basically hinting that the models are too far to the left and he has seen in the past where they shifted right back. The Weather Channel? How dare you mention the Weather Channel in this thread. Don't you know we are serious about our weather?? Jeez! Go over to the Irene thread and tell them Carolina boys you been watching the Weather Channel. They'll love you, I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The Weather Channel? How dare you mention the Weather Channel in this thread. Don't you know we are serious about our weather?? Jeez! Go over to the Irene thread and tell them Carolina boys you been watching the Weather Channel. They'll love you, I guarantee it. Yea some moron already said don't quote The Weather Channel. Fine, then give me your expert advice. TWC sucks for crap like "school weather" and stuff like that, but the specialists are great to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well obviously Florida has to pay attention. There will probably be some tense moments as it moves WNW in the Bahamas before it makes the NW-N turn--just like Floyd. They will probably issue Hurricane Watches for the Miami area--unless the E trend continues in which case this may be the most interesting fish storm in history. The latest TMI 37 GHz shows a shear pattern with a partial eyewall. Not favorable for RI in the next 24 hours. But the convective flareups of late suggest that gradual intensification should continue. So it might RI in 48 hours or so after it clears Hispaniola. It will probably be a high end 3 or a 4 when it is passing by South Florida. I hope we get a decent outer band but even that is looking less likely at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well obviously Florida has to pay attention. There will probably be some tense moments as it moves WNW in the Bahamas before it makes the NW-N turn--just like Floyd. They will probably issue Hurricane Watches for the Miami area--unless the E trend continues in which case this may be the most interesting fish storm in history. The latest TMI 37 GHz shows a shear pattern with a partial eyewall. Not favorable for RI in the next 24 hours. But the convective flareups of late suggest that gradual intensification should continue. So it might RI in 48 hours or so after it clears Hispaniola. It will probably be a high end 3 or a 4 when it is passing by South Florida. I hope we get a decent outer band but even that is looking less likely at this juncture. Man your are right with the Floyd comparison. That was a huge storm coming right at the east coast of Fla and then just turned north. The NHC 3 day puts it about 110 miles from Ft Lauderdale. They are pretty accurate 3 days out so it would have to take a huge jog left to impact the state. Not out of the woods but pretty close. You're probably also right about any meaningful bands making it to the coast. Not on the dirty side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 How is Dr. Knabb as far as predicting tropical weather? He was pretty adament on the Weather Channel about people in Florida needing to keep an eye on this. He was basically hinting that the models are too far to the left and he has seen in the past where they shifted right back. I think corporate WC wants ratings and keeping EVERYBODY in the game as long as possible hikes the ratings. Not saying MR. Knabb is selling out as he does have out lying models to substantiate ... buuuut ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The track models all agree nicely now. We can sit back and watch RI happen now--it still looks like it will RI starting this afternoon. Also interesting is that the SAL has wrapped around Irene, so we can expect it to get a little dusty/hazy here in South Florida over the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Can you imagine the panic that would set in if Irene kept going west and hit Florida as a Cat 4? You'd have 24 hours to evacuate, if that. Seriously, it's no wonder these tropical mets take this **** so seriously. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Can you imagine the panic that would set in if Irene kept going west and hit Florida as a Cat 4? You'd have 24 hours to evacuate, if that. Seriously, it's no wonder these tropical mets take this **** so seriously. LOL. Looks like NJ will see some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Can you imagine the panic that would set in if Irene kept going west and hit Florida as a Cat 4? You'd have 24 hours to evacuate, if that. Seriously, it's no wonder these tropical mets take this **** so seriously. LOL. That's exactly why they spend billions on observing/modeling/forecasting these things. Imagine if even one model missed the recurve and sent it at Florida, it would cost hundreds of millions at least in unnecessary evacuations and panic. It would be interesting if you could retroactively run the models from like 1995 on Irene with only 1995 data (no microwave images etc.) and see what happens. I'm sure we would not be nearly as confident about the track. It really might be exactly like Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 That's exactly why they spend billions on observing/modeling/forecasting these things. Imagine if even one model missed the recurve and sent it at Florida, it would cost hundreds of millions at least in unnecessary evacuations and panic. It would be interesting if you could retroactively run the models from like 1995 on Irene with only 1995 data (no microwave images etc.) and see what happens. I'm sure we would not be nearly as confident about the track. It really might be exactly like Floyd. One model hitting Florida would not cause a panic as obviously it is the many models and their general consensus along with pro forecaster human input that drives a forecast. I mean, look at these models all the way up until last Saturday or so. They were horrible. With that said, ever since then they have been incredibly tight and even more so after real hard data from dropsondes was fed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm glad to see it's not going to hit FL, that would make me quite angry since I left like a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm glad to see it's not going to hit FL, that would make me quite angry since I left like a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 MJW155, How ironic are these two shots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 LOL. Don't remind me. I move to Florida 3 years ago and NJ gets hit first. Whatever. At least we know this could be NJ's only chance for the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ruh Roh. Maybe it's a wobble but Irene is south of 21N after being at 21.3N at 11PM. You would assume that every wobble south would bring her closer to the coast but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ruh Roh. Maybe it's a wobble but Irene is south of 21N after being at 21.3N at 11PM. You would assume that every wobble south would bring her closer to the coast but I'm not sure. Hanging on to every wobble eh. Talked to my brother in Vermont and they are preparing for it up there. Just ain't fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hanging on to every wobble eh. Talked to my brother in Vermont and they are preparing for it up there. Just ain't fair. Yea it's BS. I move to the tropics and they get a storm. WTF is up w/ that? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like 30 mph gusts are already overspreading the metro areas, large storm for sure. SE FL stands a decent chance at getting some rainbands. Even though it doesn't sound like much, those can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like 30 mph gusts are already overspreading the metro areas, large storm for sure. SE FL stands a decent chance at getting some rainbands. Even though it doesn't sound like much, those can be fun. Getting a heavy squall going through right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ya, outer rain squalls moving through the Treasure Coast now. I am posting and driving through them now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is the wind pretty strong in these rain bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is the wind pretty strong in these rain bands? I am guessing 25 to 30 mph when the bands roll in. I have had three rounds in the Stuart area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is the wind pretty strong in these rain bands? Yea it's pretty gusty winds. Maybe 30-35 mph. When a squall isn't going through, it's still breezy; 15-20 mph or so. NJ is ****ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yea it's pretty gusty winds. Maybe 30-35 mph. When a squall isn't going through, it's still breezy; 15-20 mph or so. NJ is ****ed. The whole NJ thing has me in a foul mood lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looking at it on KAMX I just can't see any western movement. Not that I expected any but i was hoping. Pretty much NNW. It's killing me that this thing is so close but I won't get ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just had what was by my count the fifth decent squall line move through at 10:35 PM and it looks like maybe one more before Irene is just too far east and north. All told my rain gauge says over an inch but it has been sitting there all day so I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No, that sounds right. Ft. Lauderdale had almost 3 inches today I believe. A ****load can fall in 5 minutes when it's a hurricane squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Has the board been down for you guys periodically the last 2 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Has the board been down for you guys periodically the last 2 days? Yea. 8 people were hurt when a rogue wave hit them in West Palm Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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