toad strangler Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 LOL. Yea right. Don't lie. You are CORRECT Models are all over the place with track. They are all in agreement with cyclone. Stressful times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I'm starting to get a feeling that we iz gonna git hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Woohoo!! Had my first toad of the year yesterday. 4.61. My property is on a slope so the water was flowing pretty good. It looks like a river bottom out there with all the ripples in the sand. In reference to the rain gauge discussion we had a while back. Yesterday my Davis tipping rain gauge reported 3.84 while the manual gauge reported 4.61. Once again in heavy rain the tipping gauge was very inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This from the Jax discussion. The focus for the latter half of the extended will be centered around the track of a possible tropical system. With current model forecasts...have favored elevated probability of precipitation for later periods...in addition to cloudiness. Due to expected increased cloud cover and precipitation have tempered maximum temperatures back into the 80s. The later portion of this forecast period could vary quite a bit...based on any potential track. Therefore favoring high chance probability of precipitation for now. Pretty impressive that they are mentioning this system a full week before it even gets to the area. Jville usually don't say squat unless things are imminent. Could be interesting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Woohoo!! Had my first toad of the year yesterday. 4.61. My property is on a slope so the water was flowing pretty good. It looks like a river bottom out there with all the ripples in the sand. In reference to the rain gauge discussion we had a while back. Yesterday my Davis tipping rain gauge reported 3.84 while the manual gauge reported 4.61. Once again in heavy rain the tipping gauge was very inaccurate. Thanks for the report on the rain gauges again. I am thinking that staying manual is the way to go. BTW, 4.61? Impressive !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 This from the Jax discussion. The focus for the latter half of the extended will be centered around the track of a possible tropical system. With current model forecasts...have favored elevated probability of precipitation for later periods...in addition to cloudiness. Due to expected increased cloud cover and precipitation have tempered maximum temperatures back into the 80s. The later portion of this forecast period could vary quite a bit...based on any potential track. Therefore favoring high chance probability of precipitation for now. Pretty impressive that they are mentioning this system a full week before it even gets to the area. Jville usually don't say squat unless things are imminent. Could be interesting next week. It has already been an interesting week Anyway, just looking at satellite presentation now as compared to 12-18 hours ago shows the general umbrella of 97L has grown in size substantially. Island hopping or not, this will be no Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Man future Irene is f'ing huge. Even if the track misses FL to the east or west, I don't see how some parts of the state doesn't get at least a little bit of rain/wind unless it's shredded by Haiti/DR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Man future Irene is f'ing huge. Even if the track misses FL to the east or west, I don't see how some parts of the state doesn't get at least a little bit of rain/wind unless it's shredded by Haiti/DR. Irene is born Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 From the Miami office. TROPICAL STORM IRENE HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK TAKES IRENE ON A WEST NORTHWEST PATH...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THURSDAY. THIS FORECAST PATH REPRESENTS A RISK TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TIMING RIGHT NOW OF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO PREPARE IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY PREPARED FOR THIS HURRICANE SEASON. REFER TO READYSOUTHFLORIDA.ORG AND READY.GOV FOR A COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. $$ GREGORIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Florida hit from this spot is pretty sparse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Seems half become Carribean Cruisers and half just recurve. SE Florida has basically been in the center of the cone ever since the models came out. As long as that's the case, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Been moving into my new home all day today and saw Irene has formed and could affect us in Central Florida. I know it is never good to be in the bullseye five days out but I also know models have been favoring a Fl hit as opposed to alternate scenarios over recent days. Can someone give me the lowdown of the days developments and trends? Way to busy to read what I am sure is a multiple page thread now. Quick concise bullet points is all I ask. I know the intensity is a toss up but what is the thinking regarding track after Hispanola/Cuba? Anyone care to give odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Been moving into my new home all day today and saw Irene has formed and could affect us in Central Florida. I know it is never good to be in the bullseye five days out but I also know models have been favoring a Fl hit as opposed to alternate scenarios over recent days. Can someone give me the lowdown of the days developments and trends? Way to busy to read what I am sure is a multiple page thread now. Quick concise bullet points is all I ask. I know the intensity is a toss up but what is the thinking regarding track after Hispanola/Cuba? Anyone care to give odds? All over the place Dave. Windshield Wiper model solutions still in effect. Some kind of FL "hit" seems the consensus but that might change in an hour or two. Sorry ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 All over the place Dave. Windshield Wiper model solutions still in effect. Some kind of FL "hit" seems the consensus but that might change in an hour or two. Sorry ..... Basically statsus quo. I was surprised to see we already had a TS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Very early but this is looking like Fay from a few years ago. Only difference is Irene may come ashore as a Cat 1. A few of the GFS intensity models ramp her up to Cat 3 before landfall but they are the outliers. Everyone else is around Cat1 strength. Again these are 5 days out so take it for what it's worth. Also, models are picking up on possible Jose off the Cape Verds later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Very early but this is looking like Fay from a few years ago. Only difference is Irene may come ashore as a Cat 1. A few of the GFS intensity models ramp her up to Cat 3 before landfall but they are the outliers. Everyone else is around Cat1 strength. Again these are 5 days out so take it for what it's worth. Also, models are picking up on possible Jose off the Cape Verds later in the week. The NWS cone remains for the most part unchanged from the initial version as per 8AM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The NWS cone remains for the most part unchanged from the initial version as per 8AM this morning. The center has reformed north of the previous model tracks and has yet to turn back to the west. It appears that Irene may interact with less land and have more time over water for strengthening. The most difficult part of the forecast is predicting the recurve. A minor adjustment in the tracks could mean the difference between a South Florida and a North Carolina storm. I am not comfortable forecasting a landfall location when there is a 1000+ mile spread in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 The center has reformed north of the previous model tracks and has yet to turn back to the west. It appears that Irene may interact with less land and have more time over water for strengthening. The most difficult part of the forecast is predicting the recurve. A minor adjustment in the tracks could mean the difference between a South Florida and a North Carolina storm. I am not comfortable forecasting a landfall location when there is a 1000+ mile spread in the models. I don't think anybody is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I don't think anybody is. The next 24-48 hrs will tell. The NHC is pretty f'ing accurate for 3 days. Right now it looks like Miami-Ft. Lauderdale is in the bullseye at 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 The next 24-48 hrs will tell. The NHC is pretty f'ing accurate for 3 days. Right now it looks like Miami-Ft. Lauderdale is in the bullseye at 120 hrs. I am definitely focused on 100 hours as WE should be here in SFL. All kinds of things can happen with track / cheese grater but I would think that the pretty tight clustering of tracks in the under 100 hour range does imply that SFL will be impacted in some way as opposed to a total miss to the east or west for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Day 5 over Orlando as 60 mph storm. I'll take that. Really thought the track would be off the coast. There's still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 With the history this storm has had regarding model track shifts it would be prudent not to jump in with both feet with a few freindly runs in a row.the trend has been friends to so many alon the Gulf, FL, and SE Coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I am definitely focused on 100 hours as WE should be here in SFL. All kinds of things can happen with track / cheese grater but I would think that the pretty tight clustering of tracks in the under 100 hour range does imply that SFL will be impacted in some way as opposed to a total miss to the east or west for that matter. Now it looks like it might miss us altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Now it looks like it might miss us altogether. I will wait until whatever Irene becomes is well east and north or west and north of me before getting back to semi daily thunderstorms and the occasional strangler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Its still early. Things can change. That said, we're either looking at a direct hit from a slop-storm or a brushing from a hurricane. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I would be very surprised to see it trend back to the west. The next advisory will probably keep it off the coast. It is too bad, it probably would have been a fun little storm for us, whereas the Carolinas will probably have to deal with a larger, stronger hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 I would be very surprised to see it trend back to the west. The next advisory will probably keep it off the coast. It is too bad, it probably would have been a fun little storm for us, whereas the Carolinas will probably have to deal with a larger, stronger hurricane. Well the east trend has been very consistent since yesterday morning so I guess the crazy swings are over and generally the models have "honed in" on Irene. What I am wondering now is does this march east continue and fish this storm as alluded to by several already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 How the hell does Irene go from making landfall near New Orleans to being a fish in 3 days? Geez. Goes to show no matter how good we think we are at predicting weather, it's still a guessing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Oh well. At least the AFD is calling for some severe weather in my neck of the woods today. By the way with last nights rain I am over 10 inches for the month. Next..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Oh well. At least the AFD is calling for some severe weather in my neck of the woods today. By the way with last nights rain I am over 10 inches for the month. Next..... Nice! Hope those severe progs pan out. I had a surprise 1/4" this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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