ocala Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Obviously the farther west she goes the better it is for us. Hopefully she'll make that NW turn well west of Haiti. That's one country that just seems to get pounded every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It's early, but I like this graphic. We just need to get this up to 100%. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144553.shtml?tswind120#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Still heading west as of the 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Still heading west as of the 5. As she was last night, and the night before that, and the night before that. But I was told different in another thread. This piss poor excuse for a TC has been a MAJOR headache for the NHC and weather forecasting professionals across the board. Bless them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Trends are our friend so far with Emily. Can't believe I lucked out and have a condo on the beach in Palm Beach/Singer Island for this weekend. Booked this trip months ago and the timing of Emily could not be better:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Trends are our friend so far with Emily. Can't believe I lucked out and have a condo on the beach in Palm Beach/Singer Island for this weekend. Booked this trip months ago and the timing of Emily could not be better:) spaghetti plot is majorly confused. Too much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Yea I'm real happy w/ this so far. Hopefully this chick holds it together the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The real test is still to come, i.e. the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. It's going to be a tall order to survive those so we'll see. Emily could easily dissipate over the next 24 hours from them, especially since there's shear still kicking it's arse. I get back to Florida Friday afternoon, pretty good timing if this indeed becomes a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 The real test is still to come, i.e. the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. It's going to be a tall order to survive those so we'll see. Emily could easily dissipate over the next 24 hours from them, especially since there's shear still kicking it's arse. I get back to Florida Friday afternoon, pretty good timing if this indeed becomes a threat. Unless Emily starts a NW turn and soon she could certainly nearly clear the entire run of Hispaniola and deal with just extreme western H and eastern Cuba. Also, shear is relaxing. So, we have a big bowl of who the fook knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Unless Emily starts a NW turn and soon she could certainly nearly clear the entire run of Hispaniola and deal with just extreme western H and eastern Cuba. Also, I believe shear is relaxing. So, we have a big bowl of who the fook knows Yea if anything, she looks like she's about to thread the needle so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Unless Emily starts a NW turn and soon she could certainly nearly clear the entire run of Hispaniola and deal with just extreme western H and eastern Cuba. Also, shear is relaxing. So, we have a big bowl of who the fook knows I doubt she'll get west of the Cuban mountains, and if she doesn't manage to her low-level circulation will be pillaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 I doubt she'll get west of the Cuban mountains, and if she doesn't manage to her low-level circulation will be pillaged. you may be correct but look at Emily go! Fun to watch just 12 hours departed from nakedness lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 As much as the trends can be our friend the trends are not in our favor so far today. I still don't see this as anything more than a high surf/beach erosion issue for Florida coastal zones. Maybe a few passing showers along the coast but I think we could be looking at a pretty nice & dry weekend based on the current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 As much as the trends can be our friend the trends are not in our favor so far today. I still don't see this as anything more than a high surf/beach erosion issue for Florida coastal zones. Maybe a few passing showers along the coast but I think we could be looking at a pretty nice & dry weekend based on the current trends. Agreed. There seems to be more solid agreement that whatever Emily is in 24-48 will be picked up and tossed NE into the open sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 As much as the trends can be our friend the trends are not in our favor so far today. I still don't see this as anything more than a high surf/beach erosion issue for Florida coastal zones. Maybe a few passing showers along the coast but I think we could be looking at a pretty nice & dry weekend based on the current trends. Correct me if I'm wrong here. Don't the steering currents have more of an effect on established systems? Wouldn't this be the reason Emily is still on the westerly track? That being said why couldn't she just stay on the current track and move either up the spine of the state or get into the Gulf? I know there aren't any easy answers but so far 280 has been the track and it hasn't budged from that even the models and the NHC said it will turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Good riddance you whore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Crap. I get so fired up when one of these storms come close and crash down to earth when it goes poof. Oh well, Franklin where are you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 So, back to daily FL wet season banter after poofage of a wet and windy dream. I had a some nice echos around MBY on the Treasure Coast but all I got was a nice light show. AND, where is flwxwatcher45 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 So, back to daily FL wet season banter after poofage of a wet and windy dream. I had a some nice echos around MBY on the Treasure Coast but all I got was a nice light show. AND, where is flwxwatcher45 ? I thought I remember flwxwatcher45 saying he was going on vacation a few pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 I thought I remember flwxwatcher45 saying he was going on vacation a few pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Ok, I gave in after all... I'd also like to add to my above reasoning that progressive dry air entrainment from the north, as well as much higher shear north of the system than south of it, may allow for the center of circulation to redevelop to the south multiple times between now and Hispanola, further enhancing the southward track. It looks like I was successful in forecasting a track south and west of NHC for the first few days of Emily, and also successful in being the only one to issue a forecast on the 1st or 2nd that didn't take Emily up to hurricane strength. I had a feeling that the combination of shear, dry air and terrain would prove too much for Emily. The second half of my forecast was obviously a complete failure , on account of the UK previously outperforming the GFS on the handling of the Atlantic ridge, then suddenly the GFS overtaking the UK right after forecast issuance. In the future, if I do another one of these, I'll give more uncertainty in the forecast and/or wait till the system is named before issuing one. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about Emily re-developing over the Bahamas. Probably a bit of wind and waves for the east coast of FL regardless of redevelopment. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Interesting days ahead it seems. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 159 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011 .AVIATION... THE REMNANTS OF T.S. EMILY CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BANDS OF WIDE SPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL PASS WESTWARD THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH ALL EAST COAST TAF SITES ASSIGNED VCSH WITH JUST PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEEPER LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND LIKELY STAY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MODEST EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY COULD RE-DEVELOP...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING THE SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It looks like I was successful in forecasting a track south and west of NHC for the first few days of Emily, and also successful in being the only one to issue a forecast on the 1st or 2nd that didn't take Emily up to hurricane strength. I had a feeling that the combination of shear, dry air and terrain would prove too much for Emily. The second half of my forecast was obviously a complete failure , on account of the UK previously outperforming the GFS on the handling of the Atlantic ridge, then suddenly the GFS overtaking the UK right after forecast issuance. In the future, if I do another one of these, I'll give more uncertainty in the forecast and/or wait till the system is named before issuing one. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about Emily re-developing over the Bahamas. Probably a bit of wind and waves for the east coast of FL regardless of redevelopment. Better than nothing. Hey you were half right. In forecasting that's like hitting a home run. The low it self is located just off the north shore of central Cuba. Shear maps indicate a decent environment. Some dry air around the area but not to bad so maybe we could see regeneration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 What a difference a few days and Shredderola make. I was expecting to check into Singer Island with the threat of a TS a few days ago and when I check in today it is sunny and dry. This is an amazing place. Have been here only two hours and have already encountered two manatees, large jellyfish, and some sharks. I reccomend this place to anyone. There is a two pound lobster living his last few hours at this time before I consume him later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 What a difference a few days and Shredderola make. I was expecting to check into Singer Island with the threat of a TS a few days ago and when I check in today it is sunny and dry. This is an amazing place. Have been here only two hours and have already encountered two manatees, large jellyfish, and some sharks. I reccomend this place to anyone. There is a two pound lobster living his last few hours at this time before I consume him later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 What a difference a few days and Shredderola make. I was expecting to check into Singer Island with the threat of a TS a few days ago and when I check in today it is sunny and dry. This is an amazing place. Have been here only two hours and have already encountered two manatees, large jellyfish, and some sharks. I reccomend this place to anyone. There is a two pound lobster living his last few hours at this time before I consume him later this evening. The parts of the FL east coast that are still wild are incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The parts of the FL east coast that are still wild are incredible. Yea I go to the Everglades all the time. You see 100x more wildlife than at a zoo. I wonder if there's any other place in the US that has the amount of diverse wildlife that the Everglades have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Beautiful sunset after a day of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Beautiful sunset after a day of heavy rain. Wow, you're right down the road from me! I have a picture of that exact same sky, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Wow, you're right down the road from me! I have a picture of that exact same sky, heh. Yup, Weston is maybe a mile north of here. I went to high school there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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