flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 From Melbourne and this says it all NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. I see Joe Bastardi on twitter is honking that 94L will hit Florida late this week or next week-end, Lets hope he is right. This mornings Miami AFD mentions that the models are starting to increase moisture later this week. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED FORECAST...THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF CUBA SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO EXPRESS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Man wouldn't that be sweet. Hopefully it goes right up the spine of the state and gives everyone several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Man wouldn't that be sweet. Hopefully it goes right up the spine of the state and gives everyone several inches. The models are trending on bringing this system into the Gulf and bringing some rain to Florida. Latest Mimai AFD mentions this. [quote WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND WEDNESDAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST MODELS ARE NOW CONVERGING TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH ECMWF BEING THE MOST PERSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEX BY SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS, LIKEWISE, INCREASES POPS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH DOES NOT SEEM AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS, HOWEVER, COULD INCREASE FURTHER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 The models are trending on bringing this system into the Gulf and bringing some rain to Florida. Latest Mimai AFD mentions this. More and more mention of rain chances next weekend all around. That in itself is as bullish as any extended forecast has been in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Pressures still aren't falling with I94 but the models are beginning to converge on a NNW movement. Hopefully this is the week things start to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Pressures still aren't falling with I94 but the models are beginning to converge on a NNW movement. Hopefully this is the week things start to change. Yea, it doesn't look like 94L will be a strong system, it looks like it will be a sheared storm. Hopefully though, it does head into the gulf and drags that caribbean mositure across the state to help increase rain chances. Doing my best rain dance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Yea, it doesn't look like 94L will be a strong system as it looks like it will be a sheared storm. Hopefully though, it does head into the gulf and drags that caribbean mositure across thew state to help increase rain chances. Doing my best rain dance.. Do you really think it will be a strong system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Yea, it doesn't look like 94L will be a strong system as it looks like it will be a sheared storm. Hopefully though, it does head into the gulf and drags that caribbean mositure across thew state to help increase rain chances. Doing my best rain dance.. Rain is what we need desperately. I will do any dance needed to get something significant in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Do you really think it will be a strong system? Nobody does. I think you mis read fl's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Do you really think it will be a strong system? No, I don't think it will be a strong system at all, like I said it looks like shear will be a problem once it gets into the gulf but I am no expert so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Rain is what we need desperately. I will do any dance needed to get something significant in the gauge. Your right, hopefully 94L can help and then lets hope the rainy pattern sets in for good for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Fire season is now upon us, huge brush fire broke out in western Miami-Dade county: http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/22004500480537/ The plume on satellite is impressive, and the dry conditions are only going to continue. It's about to get smoky around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Fire season is now upon us, huge brush fire broke out in western Miami-Dade county: http://www.wsvn.com/...22004500480537/ The plume on satellite is impressive, and the dry conditions are only going to continue. It's about to get smoky around here. This fire season has the potential to be widespread. We all need some significant rain followed by more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 This fire season has the potential to be widespread. We all need some significant rain followed by more. Your right, fires starting to pop all over the state. The GFS in the long range, shows some much needed rain for the state. I hope it comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 The big O is struggling. 9.89 feet above seas level. All time low was 8.82 feet in July 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Anticipating some good storms today. Currently almost 96 with a lot of convection off to my north and NW. Per Jville pwats are at 1.6 which is the highest it has been in a while. While not soupy like 2.0 it's still encouraging. Keepin my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The big O is struggling. 9.89 feet above seas level. All time low was 8.82 feet in July 2007. I remember looking at pics of the lake from 07. In places the shoreline was about a mile out. I had no idea the lake was that low. I had thought the interior in that area was getting some rain recently. Guess it has been missing the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Anticipating some good storms today. Currently almost 96 with a lot of convection off to my north and NW. Per Jville pwats are at 1.6 which is the highest it has been in a while. While not soupy like 2.0 it's still encouraging. Keepin my fingers crossed. Yea, I see on the Tampa radar some nice action in your neck of the woods and a few have gone severe. I hope you get some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The big O is struggling. 9.89 feet above seas level. All time low was 8.82 feet in July 2007. The problem with Okeechobee is the levees can't even handle normal water levels, so in the rainy season the lake is drained before it can reach it's natural high water levels. This leads to an extreme drought every dry season. They really need to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 .67 today. Just your garden variety TS but man that rain was nice. Unfortunately Jville has the ridge building back in to dry things out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 The problem with Okeechobee is the levees can't even handle normal water levels, so in the rainy season the lake is drained before it can reach it's natural high water levels. This leads to an extreme drought every dry season. They really need to fix it. Understood. When rains are good and the lake fills it's all good as the lake does get some serious rain from the wet season being located in the middle of the penninsula. And yet a gigantic issue when the bounty has to be wasted as per your comment on the levees. I guess it is cool to feed water south into the Everglades ecosystem as needed but not a dump necessary to cure crappy capacity. Especially since Lake Okeechobee is South Florida's water back up to a huge population. This is one of the more interesting topics I have come across since moving here 20 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 I remember looking at pics of the lake from 07. In places the shoreline was about a mile out. I had no idea the lake was that low. I had thought the interior in that area was getting some rain recently. Guess it has been missing the lake. Yeah, the interior does benefit a hell of alot more than coastal sections (sans the Tampa area) with sea breeze T-storms. As highlited previously, the lake can't handle a good harvest and has to be drained. So the average Joe who reads when capacity is bursting thinks all is good for a long while when in reality it is not as soon as the next below normal precip period comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Understood. When rains are good and the lake fills it's all good as the lake does get some serious rain from the wet season being located in the middle of the penninsula. And yet a gigantic issue when the bounty has to be wasted as per your comment on the levees. I guess it is cool to feed water south into the Everglades ecosystem as needed but not a dump necessary to cure crappy capacity. Especially since Lake Okeechobee is South Florida's water back up to a huge population. This is one of the more interesting topics I have come across since moving here 20 months ago. Apparently they've been pumping tons of water out of the Lake into the Everglades to keep South Florida water levels high enough to boat over the past few months. I think it's been turned off in the past few days since water levels here have plummeted. Canals are drying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The problem with Okeechobee is the levees can't even handle normal water levels, so in the rainy season the lake is drained before it can reach it's natural high water levels. This leads to an extreme drought every dry season. They really need to fix it. Wow, I didn't realize this!!, that really stinks. Any plans to get this fixed in the future?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Apparently they've been pumping tons of water out of the Lake into the Everglades to keep South Florida water levels high enough to boat over the past few months. I think it's been turned off in the past few days since water levels here have plummeted. Canals are drying up. An evil marriage between satisfying a luxury and a necessity with a source that obviously can't handle both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Wow, I didn't realize this!!, that really stinks. Any plans to get this fixed in the future?? They're fixing it slowly, it'll probably get wrecked by a cane before it's done at the pace they're going: http://bassonline.com/wp/2009/06/24/government-moves-to-strengthen-okeechobee-levees/ "For the past three years, the corps has made sure the lake’s water level reaches no higher than 15 feet, well below capacity. " "The massive project is expected to cost $1 billion and take at least 20 years to complete. After a year of work, just about two-and-a-half miles have been strengthened." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 They're fixing it slowly, it'll probably get wrecked by a cane before it's done at the pace they're going: http://bassonline.co...echobee-levees/ "For the past three years, the corps has made sure the lake’s water level reaches no higher than 15 feet, well below capacity. " "The massive project is expected to cost $1 billion and take at least 20 years to complete. After a year of work, just about two-and-a-half miles have been strengthened." Two weeks ago I drove down a large portion of the eastern shore and in most areas I could not SEE the lake as the shore was obviously built up pretty high into what can be best described as the rim of a bowl. Only a few small sections afforded me the opportunity to see the lake itself. I guess this is the kind of work that is slowly being done to improve capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 They're fixing it slowly, it'll probably get wrecked by a cane before it's done at the pace they're going: http://bassonline.co...echobee-levees/ "For the past three years, the corps has made sure the lake’s water level reaches no higher than 15 feet, well below capacity. " "The massive project is expected to cost $1 billion and take at least 20 years to complete. After a year of work, just about two-and-a-half miles have been strengthened." Fixing it slowly is right ,incredible. Your right a major cane will probably wreck before they fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 They're fixing it slowly, it'll probably get wrecked by a cane before it's done at the pace they're going: http://bassonline.co...echobee-levees/ "For the past three years, the corps has made sure the lake’s water level reaches no higher than 15 feet, well below capacity. " "The massive project is expected to cost $1 billion and take at least 20 years to complete. After a year of work, just about two-and-a-half miles have been strengthened." I hiked around the lake last winter. I had to take 3 detours on the southern end of the dikes because the Florida Trail is closed. Had to backpack through trailer park neighbors w/ dogs running out towards me. Worst 3 days of hiking in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I hiked around the lake last winter. I had to take 3 detours on the southern end of the dikes because the Florida Trail is closed. Had to backpack through trailer park neighbors w/ dogs running out towards me. Worst 3 days of hiking in my life. LOL, that sounds ridiculous. First fire road closings in Miami-Dade tonight, out in the sticks. Only 12 miles south of me. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 756 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011 FLZ073-070700- INLAND MIAMI DADE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOMESTEAD...FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND... MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK... SHARK VALLEY 756 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011 SMOKE FROM A BRUSH FIRE WILL AFFECT INLAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE FIRE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 WEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND NEAR KROME AVENUE. A 10 MILE STRETCH OF KROME AVENUE...FROM U.S. 27 TO SOUTHWEST 8TH STREET HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO THE WILDFIRE. PORTIONS OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MICCOSUKEE RESORT MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SMOKE OVERNIGHT. DRIVERS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. Also, the dewpoints are in the upper 60s across most of southeast Florida, even the urban areas, probably because the ground is so ridiculously dry. We're not even getting dew in the morning since our lows never get below 70 this time of year. Some spots around here have gotten as low as 70 though which is pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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