toad strangler Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Since the weather looks to be rather boring the next few days , I will do some hyping. The EURO is still hinting that the strong TW near 35W might become a player in the long range. Keeping my fingers crossed. Hyping is always predicated on at least a sliver of real possibility. I for one appreciate you watching models as I don't have the time and hype posts put a nugget in the back of my mind to FOLLOW UP. So ..... hype away bro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Hyping is always predicated on at least a sliver of real possibility. I for one appreciate you watching models as I don't have the time and hype posts put a nugget in the back of my mind to FOLLOW UP. So ..... hype away bro lol Thanks. 12Z EURO continues the trend of bringing it in our BY in the long range and the UKMET also developes the wave. It's a rather large wave, so as Josh would say, I am getting that tingly feeling about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lincolncent Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The thing North of PR is a tropical wave interacting with an Upper Low. Interesting to see what it looks like once it gets past the ULL. As for the 65 Degree morning low, I have had enough of this cold snap for now. http://www.ssd.noaa....tl/loop-wv.html Send some of it my way! I didn't get enough of last Thursday's 70º high. Could definitely use that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Tropics update.. EURO continues to be bullish on the strong Atlantic wave. Looks like a trough wants to catch it but the ridge builds back in and sends it back west. Still a ways out and anything can happen but it could get interesting for Florida next week. http://raleighwx.ame...rtSLP_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Tropics update.. EURO continues to be bullish on the strong Atlantic wave. Looks like a trough wants to catch it but the ridge builds back in and sends it back west. Still a ways out and anything can happen but it could get interesting for Florida next week. A all July Cape Verde wave .... that would be something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Regarding our previous discussion about rain gauges. This guy is doing a side by side comparison of several weather stations with tipper rain gauges and the 4inch and 8 inch manual gauges. He's located in Lexington, Ga which is in NE Georgia. http://www.lexingtonwx.com/comparison.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Tropics update.. EURO continues to be bullish on the strong Atlantic wave. Looks like a trough wants to catch it but the ridge builds back in and sends it back west. Still a ways out and anything can happen but it could get interesting for Florida next week. Man that wave is pretty far south. Down around 12. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 It is HOT today. Some inland stations are approaching 100° F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 A all July Cape Verde wave .... that would be something! Yes it would be . The 12Z EURO and the UKMET now get the wave tangled up with the islands and pretty much ends the threat. Still along ways away and it will be interesting to see how it does pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Man that wave is pretty far south. Down around 12. We'll see what happens. It is pretty far South. Hopefully it can avoid getting tangled up with the Islands down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 I will take too far south than a tad north every time and especially being so far out. Something to at least track is good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 It is HOT today. Some inland stations are approaching 100° F. Wow..I would guess some places are close to records huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I will take too far south than a tad north every time and especially being so far out. Something to at least track is good times! I'm with you on that.. THe 12Z EURO ensemble means do develope it and take it toward the Straits. Like you said, something to watch. I have to remind myself not to put to much stock in any one model run this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Regarding our previous discussion about rain gauges. This guy is doing a side by side comparison of several weather stations with tipper rain gauges and the 4inch and 8 inch manual gauges. He's located in Lexington, Ga which is in NE Georgia. http://www.lexington.../comparison.htm Nice, thanks for sharing. I have not purchased anything yet. I guess I am not sold YET on the pricey products and need something, anything, to push me along. lol It would be the 24 hr rain value for each compared to what is noted as NWS official. That is what I am interested in for comparison over all other data. As of now DRY as a BONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Wow..I would guess some places are close to records huh? Yeah it did get near records in some areas. Another sweltering day today, and it looks like it'll be like this for at least the next week. I'm hoping the rains keep up since that makes a big difference, but subsidence from the high will prevent widespread thunderstorm activity after tomorrow. Where storms do occur they'll be powerful though due to the over heated boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Yeah it did get near records in some areas. Another sweltering day today, and it looks like it'll be like this for at least the next week. I'm hoping the rains keep up since that makes a big difference, but subsidence from the high will prevent widespread thunderstorm activity after tomorrow. Where storms do occur they'll be powerful though due to the over heated boundary layer. This mornings AFD reported that it will be "even hotter and drier" through the weekend. I can't imagine it as such. The midwest must be absolutely miserable, Down here we have more in terms of humidity, and it seems to be a constant barrage of heat that begins in June and ends in Oct and just never lets up, but with the oceans and breezes around at least there is an upper cap (it rarely gets into the triple digits and heat indices usually cap at 110). Thankfully down here in Broward we've had a good amount of rain with the SB every day this week. Starting early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 This mornings AFD reported that it will be "even hotter and drier" through the weekend. I can't imagine it as such. The midwest must be absolutely miserable, Down here we have more in terms of humidity, and it seems to be a constant barrage of heat that begins in June and ends in Oct and just never lets up, but with the oceans and breezes around at least there is an upper cap (it rarely gets into the triple digits and heat indices usually cap at 110). Thankfully down here in Broward we've had a good amount of rain with the SB every day this week. Starting early today. The entire east coast sea breeze front is igniting already. Could be quite the rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Just experienced a literal "bolt from the blue". A CG struck within 1 block of me, not sure exactly what it hit but it was quite startling. Fortunately I was inside at the time but there is really no reason to be because it is BRIGHT SUNSHINE outside. There is an anvil nearby but it isn't even directly overhead. The nearest rain is 6-7 miles away. Now I am scared to go outside and look around to see if it hit anything. It was certainly a positive strike so it probably did some damage to whatever it hit. That is how people get killed by lightning strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 The entire east coast sea breeze front is igniting already. Could be quite the rainy day. Yes,for the first time in several days, the west coast SB is getting active up here in central florida. It's nice to see some convection again on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Just experienced a literal "bolt from the blue". A CG struck within 1 block of me, not sure exactly what it hit but it was quite startling. Fortunately I was inside at the time but there is really no reason to be because it is BRIGHT SUNSHINE outside. There is an anvil nearby but it isn't even directly overhead. The nearest rain is 6-7 miles away. Now I am scared to go outside and look around to see if it hit anything. It was certainly a positive strike so it probably did some damage to whatever it hit. That is how people get killed by lightning strikes. I have been outside and had that happen to me. Like you said, sunny with some anvils within sight but not seeming that close ,then a quick flash and that quick sharp crack of thunder. It does scare the hell out of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Just experienced a literal "bolt from the blue". A CG struck within 1 block of me, not sure exactly what it hit but it was quite startling. Fortunately I was inside at the time but there is really no reason to be because it is BRIGHT SUNSHINE outside. There is an anvil nearby but it isn't even directly overhead. The nearest rain is 6-7 miles away. Now I am scared to go outside and look around to see if it hit anything. It was certainly a positive strike so it probably did some damage to whatever it hit. That is how people get killed by lightning strikes. They call that "dry lightning" don't they? Lightning can and does strike far from precip. Thats why they tell you to go inside if you hear thunder/lightning. Its so unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 They call that "dry lightning" don't they? Lightning can and does strike far from precip. Thats why they tell you to go inside if you hear thunder/lightning. Its so unpredictable. I hadn't heard that before but I googled it and found this. Dry lightning is lightning that occurs where rain is not falling at the strike location or soon thereafter. Yep, as the NWS likes to say, when thunder roars head indoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 This situation was unusual because it was completely sunny and there were no quiet rumbles to serve as any kind of warning. I do not have a good view of the western sky and I did not know that storms had developed. Dry lightning occurs around here all the time, the anvils like to blow over from the Everglades storms. I consider this a "bolt from the blue" because it was similar to these examples as opposed to just coming out from under a dry anvil like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I am in the jackpot for the seabreeze collision. Storms developing quickly overhead and all up and down the spine at this time. I went from clear skies to intense cloud to ground lighting in 15 minutes. Still waiting for the first drops of rain to fall. Storm just getting going. Clear skies and sun out all around including here but lightning is intense and oh so close. Very cool storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I hadn't heard that before but I googled it and found this. Yep, as the NWS likes to say, when thunder roars head indoors. I'm not sure where you found that definition, and it could be a completely reliable source, but I believe that the more traditional definition of dry lightning is when the cumulonimbus itself produces no precipitation reaching the ground. In this case, and almost always in FL, I'm sure it was raining somewhere beneath the parent cell, just not exactly where you were. It's pretty uncommon to see dry lightning outside of a semi-arid environment. Anyway, great story tho wi_fl_wx and glad you're ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 I am in the jackpot for the seabreeze collision. Storms developing quickly overhead and all up and down the spine at this time. I went from clear skies to intense cloud to ground lighting in 15 minutes. Still waiting for the first drops of rain to fall. Storm just getting going. Clear skies and sun out all around including here but lightning is intense and oh so close. Very cool storm. I was in Orlando today for the 2011 South East Builders Conference and bolted at 4:45 and must have missed it by a hair! I love big storms but dislike driving in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I'm not sure where you found that definition, and it could be a completely reliable source, but I believe that the more traditional definition of dry lightning is when the cumulonimbus itself produces no precipitation reaching the ground. In this case, and almost always in FL, I'm sure it was raining somewhere beneath the parent cell, just not exactly where you were. It's pretty uncommon to see dry lightning outside of a semi-arid environment. Anyway, great story tho wi_fl_wx and glad you're ok! Dr Greg Forbes at weather.com http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_13021.html He does mention 2 types of dry lightning. What I posted and what you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Dr Greg Forbes at weather.com http://www.weather.c...er/8_13021.html He does mention 2 types of dry lightning. What I posted and what you mentioned. Well there ya go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Things looking up for a more active day around my neck of the woods. Morning soundings look a lot better then they have the last several days. Tidbit from Tampa AFD BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF AN EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO CAUSE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLLISION THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWING 2.10 INCHES OF PWAT THIS MORNING AS WELL AS STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT AGAIN. 24 HR CHG SHOWS A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPS FALLEN FROM -6C TO -8C...AND FREEZING LEVELS SLIGHTLY LOWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I see that wave I have been watching now approaching the Islands is now INVEST 90L. EURO has backed off on development but does bring the wave into Florida in about 6 days. Still, it's something to watch the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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