turtlehurricane Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 If it could just intensify more. Not asking much, just a good ole tropical storm. Arlene do you feel up to the task?? Arlene already came and went Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Arlene already came and went Ah, yeah. I knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Looking at few intensity forecasts most have it just getting to 30kts. However one crazy model, the TVCC has it at 98mph in 12 hours. Curious what that model uses for data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 If it could just intensify more. Not asking much, just a good ole tropical storm. Arlene do you feel up to the task?? Well it looks like it will move onshore sometime Saturday Morning, it will be interesting to see if this can become Brett before moving onshore. Either way looks like some very good rain chances the next few days . The long range looks good for continued summer-time storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Getting in on some very heavy rain now as some hefty Storms have set up all around North Polk County, Looking at WV loop I see that Upper Level Low is starting to move West. It will be interesting to see if shear will start letting up enough to be able to let 96L at least become a TD or STD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Getting in on some very heavy rain now as some hefty Storms have set up all around North Polk County, Looking at WV loop I see that Upper Level Low is starting to move West. It will be interesting to see if shear will start letting up enough to be able to let 96L at least become a TD or STD. Florida is no stranger to STDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Florida is no stranger to STDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Florida is no stranger to STDs. I sense the STD your talking about is not one we would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Getting in on some very heavy rain now as some hefty Storms have set up all around North Polk County, Looking at WV loop I see that Upper Level Low is starting to move West. It will be interesting to see if shear will start letting up enough to be able to let 96L at least become a TD or STD. 96L is orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 96L is orange. Yea, I was surprised to see it go Orange, the Upper low is forecast to keep moving west .It looks like until this thing comes ashore conditions should improve some for development. This thing is in no hurry either so looks like some really havy rain on tap the next couple of days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The lesion on the map turns from orange...to red...and then you have a full STD outbreak on your hands. See a meteorologist right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Moved over to Weston and it rained all day both days we moved. This is definitely the rain we needed though, so i'll take it in buckets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Let it rain!!! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 915 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .DISCUSSION... DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW 2.44"VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) CONTINUES TO BE DRAW NORTH IN THE REGION THIS MORNING ON A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE JUST OFF THE SURFACE VIA SOUNDING DATA WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AS SOME OF THESE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Added a shade over 3 inches of rain in the old rain gauge the last 2 days. Looks like a return of the normal SB driven storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 Added a shade over 3 inches of rain in the old rain gauge the last 2 days. Looks like a return of the normal SB driven storms today. I had heavy rain on Thursday from T-storms that lasted an hour and a half. Yesterday was the best as MBY got over 8 hours of a steady very light rain / drizzle. It just never stopped! The best kind of precip for all things growing. I actually had puddles beginning to develop near the end and when you get puddles in a lawn from just light rain you know the ground is saturated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 I had heavy rain on Thursday from T-storms that lasted an hour and a half. Yesterday was the best as MBY got over 8 hours of a steady very light rain / drizzle. It just never stopped! The best kind of precip for all things growing. I actually had puddles beginning to develop near the end and when you get puddles in a lawn from just light rain you know the ground is saturated! It looks like a good week overall for the rain chances. Today should be another good day for you as the storms should end up on the East Coast later in the day. With some good daytime heating today, hopefully some toad strangler storms will be around.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Did you ever notice that when it rains in South Fl. the radar is out? http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Added a shade over 3 inches of rain in the old rain gauge the last 2 days. Looks like a return of the normal SB driven storms today. I still can't get that good toad strangler up here. Just over .80 the last 2 days. The sun is shining today though so instability should be higher. Now if I can get one of those storms to come this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Did you ever notice that when it rains in South Fl. the radar is out? http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes I see it's back up. You really aren't completely uncovered with Melbourne and Key West still active. Also you have the TDWR radars in Miami, Ft Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 I still can't get that good toad strangler up here. Just over .80 the last 2 days. The sun is shining today though so instability should be higher. Now if I can get one of those storms to come this way. Looks like things starting to pop in the Ocala area. Hopefully your rain gauge will get a workout today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 I still can't get that good toad strangler up here. Just over .80 the last 2 days. The sun is shining today though so instability should be higher. Now if I can get one of those storms to come this way. I saw flwx mention this and now ocala. I know what kind of storm you all are referring to ...... the slow heavy dumper that just sits, barely moves, and or trains. Let this semi recent transplant in on the lingo man ..... TOAD STRANGLER ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I saw flwx mention this and now ocala. I know what kind of storm you all are referring to ...... the slow heavy dumper that just sits, barely moves, and or trains. Let this semi recent transplant in on the lingo man ..... TOAD STRANGLER ??? Yep, a toad strangler is indeed a t-storm that dumps a whole lot of rain . First time I saw a reference to that was when I first moved down from Chicago and I was reading a AFD out of the Miami office.. I was like WTF?? lol..Up north we used to call them gully washers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I saw flwx mention this and now ocala. I know what kind of storm you all are referring to ...... the slow heavy dumper that just sits, barely moves, and or trains. Let this semi recent transplant in on the lingo man ..... TOAD STRANGLER ??? I actually first heard the term when I moved to south Florida in the late 80's. I was like you, what the hell is that? Still didn't get the big one yet but we did get some rain and the grass is growing. Have to cut the grass this morning before it starts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I actually first heard the term when I moved to south Florida in the late 80's. I was like you, what the hell is that? Still didn't get the big one yet but we did get some rain and the grass is growing. Have to cut the grass this morning before it starts again. I see your getting some pop up storms in your area this morning.. Maybe today will be the day the Toad stranglers come visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Nice convective complex over Lake O all night, probably some pretty wild totals up there. Was seeing the lightning flashes as I was fishing in the Everglades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Amazing line of showers and thunderstorms just off the Florida panhandle... unfortunately, it's JUST OFF the coast, because they could certainly use the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Looks like parts of North Florida. getting some good rains this morning.. In the longer range tyhe GFS is hinting at some home brew off the Coast this week-end. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Looks like parts of North Florida. getting some good rains this morning.. In the longer range tyhe GFS is hinting at some home brew off the Coast this week-end. Something to watch at least. Yep, need that carrot dangling in our face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yep, need that carrot dangling in our face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yesterday morning had to be one of the most uncomfortable days I ever had in Florida. At 10AM yesterday it was 81 degrees with 94% humidity and a DP of 78. I really think you could have cut it with a knife. The heat doesn't bother me but man yesterday for the first time in a long time I just had to say wow. About noon some nice storms came through and brought things back to respectability. Curious to see what happens off the SC coast the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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