toad strangler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 So, we are all in the middle to latter time period when nearly all of central / southern Florida east and west should see the official beginning to some drought busting rains in this years case and the onset of the annual FL rainy / wet season (whichever designation you prefer). The daily battle between sea breeze boundaries east and west combined with soaring dew points that bring good ol MUGGY true tropical like weather. I did some basic research on the onset of this wonderful time of year IMBY in the first post of the last thread which I have re-posted below along with a link to a cool basic read from NWS Melbourne. It will be cool to garner thoughts on this from those outside of my local area and the thoughts of those in north FL including the panhandle as I have not paid any attention to what our season means to there due to IMBYism. I have to send some kudos to Josh as I stole a play from his well written book by exorcising some bad ju ju that is prevalent in the first thread!?!? Perhaps because it was started too early? Since 2000 in my general location on the Treasure Coast the much anticipated wet season (steady dew points of 70 or higher is a must) starts on or about May 25 and ends on or about October 17. This does not count any tropical activity! Start and end dates: 2000 - 6/6 - 10/19 2001 - 5/22 - 10/26 2002 - 5/30 - 10/16 2003 - 5/22 - 10/15 2004 - 6/1 - 10/14 2005 - 5/25 - 10/15 2006 - 6/1 - 9/28 2007 - 6/11 - 11/3 2008 - 5/19 - 10/15 2009 - 5/18 - 9/30 2010 - 5/25 - 9/30 A cool read about this topic here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 So, we are all in the middle to latter time period when nearly all of central / southern Florida east and west should see the official beginning to some drought busting rains in this years case and the onset of the annual FL rainy / wet season (whichever designation you prefer). The daily battle between sea breeze boundaries east and west combined with soaring dew points that bring good ol MUGGY true tropical like weather. I did some basic research on the onset of this wonderful time of year IMBY in the first post of the last thread which I have re-posted below along with a link to a cool basic read from NWS Melbourne. It will be cool to garner thoughts on this from those outside of my local area and the thoughts of those in north FL including the panhandle as I have not paid any attention to what our season means to there due to IMBYism. I have to send some kudos to Josh as I stole a play from his well written book by exorcising some bad ju ju that is prevalent in the first thread!?!? Perhaps because it was started too early? Since 2000 in my general location on the Treasure Coast the much anticipated wet season (steady dew points of 70 or higher is a must) starts on or about May 25 and ends on or about October 17. This does not count any tropical activity! Start and end dates: 2000 - 6/6 - 10/19 2001 - 5/22 - 10/26 2002 - 5/30 - 10/16 2003 - 5/22 - 10/15 2004 - 6/1 - 10/14 2005 - 5/25 - 10/15 2006 - 6/1 - 9/28 2007 - 6/11 - 11/3 2008 - 5/19 - 10/15 2009 - 5/18 - 9/30 2010 - 5/25 - 9/30 A cool read about this topic here! Some nice info and stats, thanks.. I see in the Tampa region the official rainy season start can be as late as the middle of June!!. On another note, a little surprise for Floridians. that complex of Thunderstorms now off the Carolina Coast heading toward Florida is now INVEST 93L.. Softparade, we have some good Karma back . http://www.ssd.noaa....l/loop-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Some nice info and stats, thanks.. I see in the Tampa region the official rainy season start can be as late as the middle of June!!. On another note, a little surprise for Floridians. that complex of Thunderstorms now off the Carolina Coast heading toward Florida is now INVEST 93L.. Softparade, we have some good Karma back . http://www.ssd.noaa....l/loop-avn.html Tampa makes up for any delay to the start that is for sure. CLP5 seems friendly ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Tampa makes up for any delay to the start that is for sure. CLP5 seems friendly ! Oh yea.. we always seem to make up for any late start to the rainy season. LOL about the CLP5, interesting to see if that feature can hold together overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Oh yea.. we always seem to make up for any late start to the rainy season. LOL about the CLP5, interesting to see if that feature can hold together overnight. This will continue into early next week and place S Florida under northwest flow aloft which will not allow the deep layer moisture that is over the Caribbean Sea to move northward and S Florida will remain mostly dry with only isolated probability of precipitation. Damn. Thought we would get some rain from the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This will continue into early next week and place S Florida under northwest flow aloft which will not allow the deep layer moisture that is over the Caribbean Sea to move northward and S Florida will remain mostly dry with only isolated probability of precipitation. Damn. Thought we would get some rain from the Caribbean. Some rain today from 93L, which has held together nicely overnight. It's to bad it's running out of Real Estate. Then like you said, looks like rain chances isolated at best the next several days. The Long range GFS offers some hope of some rain in the extended. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Some rain today from 93L, which has held together nicely overnight. It's to bad it's running out of Real Estate. Then like you said, looks like rain chances isolated at best the next several days. The Long range GFS offers some hope of some rain in the extended. We will see. 93L will be a bit too far north for me as I am 50 miles south of Melbourne. You guys in real central FL should see some MUCH needed rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 First band of Storms at my doorstep now and it looks like 93L will pass pretty close to me here in Northern Polk County. I see Special Marine Warnings have been issued for the Storms offshore Melbourne. It will be interetsing to see what happens to this once in the Gulf and it's Amazing this system has lived so long , starting as a MCS over the Midwest Sunday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 First band of Storms at my doorstep now and it looks like 93L will pass pretty close to me here in Northern Polk County. I see Special Marine Warnings have been issued for the Storms offshore Melbourne. It will be interetsing to see what happens to this once in the Gulf and it's Amazing this system has lived so long , starting as a MCS over the Midwest Sunday!!! so CLP5 wins the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 so CLP5 wins the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Nice quicktime movie of 93L from it's start as a MCS Sunday to now. http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/movie/latest_ref.mov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Nice quicktime movie of 93L from it's start as a MCS Sunday to now. http://goes.gsfc.nas.../latest_ref.mov Damn! Did that ever shoot across the peninsula! Buck Shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 .32 in the bucket. Not a lot but man we needed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Damn! Did that ever shoot across the peninsula! Buck Shot! Yes, it didn't watse any time moving across the state, Damn!!!. Now back to the dry weather for awhile!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 .32 in the bucket. Not a lot but man we needed that. Same here ,.30 in the old rain bucket. The band of 1 to 2 inch rains this afternoon stayed just to my NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I see Citrus County had Quarter and Golf Ball size hail reported. 0215 PM HAIL 3 NW BEVERLY HILLS 28.95N 82.50W 06/01/2011 E1.00 INCH CITRUS FL BROADCAST MEDIA QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND VERY GUSTY WINDS. RELAYED BY LOCAL MEDIA. 0220 PM HAIL 3 NW BEVERLY HILLS 28.95N 82.50W 06/01/2011 E1.75 INCH CITRUS FL BROADCAST MEDIA GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY A LOCAL CITRUS COUNTY NEWSPAPER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. 0231 PM HAIL 1 NNW CRYSTAL RIVER 28.91N 82.60W 06/01/2011 E1.00 INCH CITRUS FL LAW ENFORCEMENT http://www.weather.gov/data/TBW/LSRTBW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 the eternal dry season EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 848 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT...DEPARTURE OF FEATURE THAT BROUGHT WELCOME RAIN TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS TEMPORARILY VEERED WINDS TO A SE COMPONENT. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY BRUSH FIRES FOR THE MOST PART SAW AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY EST`D BY RADAR. THE EVENING SOUNDING AT XMR SHOWS MODEST MOISTURE THROUGH H7 WITH LAYER AVERAGE 15 KNOTS OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE BL TO ABOUT 3K FT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME FROM THE CAPE SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST. BY EARLY THURSDAY WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OVER THE STATE. WL UPDT FCST FOR A FEW ELEMENTS...ADDING LIGHT RAIN PSBL AT THE COAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 the eternal dry season EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 848 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT...DEPARTURE OF FEATURE THAT BROUGHT WELCOME RAIN TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS TEMPORARILY VEERED WINDS TO A SE COMPONENT. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY BRUSH FIRES FOR THE MOST PART SAW AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY EST`D BY RADAR. THE EVENING SOUNDING AT XMR SHOWS MODEST MOISTURE THROUGH H7 WITH LAYER AVERAGE 15 KNOTS OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE BL TO ABOUT 3K FT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME FROM THE CAPE SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST. BY EARLY THURSDAY WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OVER THE STATE. WL UPDT FCST FOR A FEW ELEMENTS...ADDING LIGHT RAIN PSBL AT THE COAST Wake me up in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 The drought is getting very severe down here. The southeast metro areas are up to D4 on the drought scale, which is 'exceptional' and the worst it can get. The sun has been beating the Earth dry around here, and there is almost no rain to compensate, and the forecast looks dry for as far as it goes. We could be on the verge of a very bad fire season in South Florida, already seeing fires break out across the state. Just need some lightning to kindle one out in the Everglades, and with the dryness and constant winds it'll become a mega fire quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 The drought is getting very severe down here. The southeast metro areas are up to D4 on the drought scale, which is 'exceptional' and the worst it can get. The sun has been beating the Earth dry around here, and there is almost no rain to compensate, and the forecast looks dry for as far as it goes. We could be on the verge of a very bad fire season in South Florida, already seeing fires break out across the state. Just need some lightning to kindle one out in the Everglades, and with the dryness and constant winds it'll become a mega fire quickly. Welcome back from Wisconsin and congrats! Dry to the bone. My area on the Treasure Coast is just as bad. I fear the day I am on the roof double fisting hose duty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 The drought is getting very severe down here. The southeast metro areas are up to D4 on the drought scale, which is 'exceptional' and the worst it can get. The sun has been beating the Earth dry around here, and there is almost no rain to compensate, and the forecast looks dry for as far as it goes. We could be on the verge of a very bad fire season in South Florida, already seeing fires break out across the state. Just need some lightning to kindle one out in the Everglades, and with the dryness and constant winds it'll become a mega fire quickly. Yes, it is getting quite bad down here in Miami. We've seen a TOTAL of 0.12" of precip since May 8th! Believe it or not, it's even worse just to our north: Rainfall departures from normal since the start of the dry season (Oct 1 - Jun 2): Miami: -11.16" Ft. Lauderdale: -23.68" West Palm Beach: -23.11" Naples: -13.33" It looks like sea breeze thunderstorms will begin this upcoming Wed, but little if anything before then. You're right Turtle, let's hope we don't see any more wildfires between now and then! Unfortunately, I have a feeling the easterlies are going to be strong enough to keep most of the precip, when it does come, inland / away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 The drought is getting very severe down here. The southeast metro areas are up to D4 on the drought scale, which is 'exceptional' and the worst it can get. The sun has been beating the Earth dry around here, and there is almost no rain to compensate, and the forecast looks dry for as far as it goes. We could be on the verge of a very bad fire season in South Florida, already seeing fires break out across the state. Just need some lightning to kindle one out in the Everglades, and with the dryness and constant winds it'll become a mega fire quickly. Welcome back Turtle and congrats!!!. Things here in Polk county aren't as bad as you guys have it yet but it is getting dry. The Easterlies have brought the smoke from the fires in Orange County my way earlier in the week.. Keeping fingers crossed next week some rain begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 My bad, sorry. I posted last night in the old thread. These old eyes are tired.. lol Anyways, it still looks like in the next few days the Tampa area should start seeing some T-storms . Hopefully the Storms will start firing up soon statewide as well. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S DURING MIDWEEK THEN DRIFT WEST SOME AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE VARIES BETWEEN EACH MODEL AND BETWEEN EACH MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENING THE OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Yea it's dry as ****. I went to my sister's house yesterday. She was using a hose to fill the swimming pool so the filter didn't make that "Thawk, Twack!" noise it does when it has air in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Jax bumped up pops slightly for today. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 955 am EDT Sat Jun 4 2011 Short term...leftover light showers and debris cloudiness from earlier thunderstorms continue to shift slowly S over inland areas. RUC continues to move vorticity maximum S and SW through the day. NAM and GFS agree that this will be the area of best rain chances today. 12z kjax sounding shows 2 distinct subsidence inversions..one at 950mb and one at 870mb. Both of these inversions should be broken anywhere temperatures reach the lower 90s...which is everywhere except the immediate Atlantic coastline. This fact...coupled with old outflow boundaries...seabreezes...and differential heating around periphery of inland clouds...will require probability of precipitation to be bumped up about 10 percent. Will also adjust cloud cover a bit. Thicker clouds will keep temperatures down initially...but these clouds should break up and become more scattered allowing forecast maximum temperatures to be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Yea it's dry as ****. I went to my sister's house yesterday. She was using a hose to fill the swimming pool so the filter didn't make that "Thawk, Twack!" noise it does when it has air in it. It is amazing how quick pool water evaporates here especially on breezy dry days. My in laws and sister in law have been fighting the same thing. You can lose an inch of pool water in one afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 My bad, sorry. I posted last night in the old thread. These old eyes are tired.. lol Anyways, it still looks like in the next few days the Tampa area should start seeing some T-storms . Hopefully the Storms will start firing up soon statewide as well. Just trying a new dance that will hopefully lead to If this does not work I will have a bone to pick with Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Just trying a new dance that will hopefully lead to If this does not work I will have a bone to pick with Josh We all should try a rain dance. If it doesn't work ,let me know when your ready to give Josh some hell, we will tag team him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Yes, it is getting quite bad down here in Miami. We've seen a TOTAL of 0.12" of precip since May 8th! Believe it or not, it's even worse just to our north: Rainfall departures from normal since the start of the dry season (Oct 1 - Jun 2): Miami: -11.16" Ft. Lauderdale: -23.68" West Palm Beach: -23.11" Naples: -13.33" The awesome part about living in Florida is these numbers can be erased in a week. LOL. Hell even a day w/ a slow moving tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 We all should try a rain dance. If it doesn't work ,let me know when your ready to give Josh some hell, we will tag team him. From Melbourne and this says it all NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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