CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 i don't mind cool/wet as long as it's not overly extreme...like i hate 57F with east winds and drizzle when the calendar shows the 4th of july approaching some interludes of damp weather in the summer are nice...breaks the monotony of it all and keeps the dust in check. there's pretty decent correlation between -ao conditions and cool/damp summer weather in the northern tier...so maybe if that let's go as the gfs ens suggest and the nao hangover that scooter was mentioning can relax, things will get a bit more sustained toward the warmer side of things. but i'm just guessing really. LOL. I could go for a little warmth. I don't see how 57 and drizzle could benefit anyone. I guess if you have a fetish for staying indoors like a hermit while rocking violently back and forth on your chair, it's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I think this lingering NAO stuff is related to the stratospheric warming we had several weeks ago. We're still seeing a hangover effect from that. I feel like the heat...or at least some more warm periods might happen after the 4th as everything relaxes a bit. The PNA will probably be a little more negative too. But you're right....another trough looks to come down right after the 4th...lol. Recurving Typhoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I could go for a little warmth. I don't see how 57 and drizzle could benefit anyone. I guess if you have a fetish for staying indoors like a hermit while rocking violently back and forth on your chair, it's cool. Why you dissing Ray? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Recurving Typhoon! That will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 That will be interesting to see what happens. Trough week of the 4th likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 This weather sucks. Heading out to mow 5 properties in sheet drizzle on saturated ground is depressing. I need sun. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Trough week of the 4th likely. That seems to be about as good a teleconnector as we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I am really not seeing any sort of severe wx threat in SNE today. Sure it's possible we see one or two strong to perhaps severe storms work into the region from just west of here but I just don't see any sort of sfc-based instability developing today. Flow is just way too stabilizing and mid-level lapse rates completely suck. Updrafts are really going to have issues developing today. PWATS are still fairly high, the column is pretty damn moist, there is no cap, pretty decent inversion above the sfc...heavy rain will be the threat once again today. Any storms working in will become elevated very quickly and just pose a threat for heavy rain/flash flooding...many some CG strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 That seems to be about as good a teleconnector as we have. In the winter it is a lock, sometimes in summer you get less of a connector due to the really slow jet speed and less inclination for it to pump the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 If anything I would watch out for tomorrow for severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 This weather sucks. Heading out to mow 5 properties in sheet drizzle on saturated ground is depressing. I need sun. :axe: You mean the BEST spring ever has not translated into the best summer ever?!?! I'm with you though...I'd prefer an alternation of 1 crappy day followed by 1 nice day. This whole pattern of 4-5 nice days followed by 4-5 days of crap makes for some depressing stretches. You can just feel summer wasting away during these lousy stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Phil mentioned it yesterday, saw lots of large limbs broken today on my drive. Amazing how easily fully leaved trees break saturated with water and 25 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 This weather sucks. Heading out to mow 5 properties in sheet drizzle on saturated ground is depressing. I need sun. :axe: Best summer ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 You mean the BEST spring ever has not translated into the best summer ever?!?! I'm with you though...I'd prefer an alternation of 1 crappy day followed by 1 nice day. This whole pattern of 4-5 nice days followed by 4-5 days of crap makes for some depressing stretches. You can just feel summer wasting away during these lousy stretches. I agree with this Although I hope that at some point the pattern switches and we get 2 months of solid summer, then a quick flip to a cool autumn and epic long lasting winter stretching from Thanksgiving to Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Best summer ever? Looks great lake and beach weekend for me. Sunday: Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind between 6 and 9 mph. Sunday Night: Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 57. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Looks great lake and beach weekend for me. Sunday: Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind between 6 and 9 mph. Sunday Night: Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 57. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 81. yeah after we get through this disaster things should improve nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Saturday looks like a good day to get some T-storms. bump, since today is an epic fail, as we knew all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I am really not seeing any sort of severe wx threat in SNE today. Sure it's possible we see one or two strong to perhaps severe storms work into the region from just west of here but I just don't see any sort of sfc-based instability developing today. Flow is just way too stabilizing and mid-level lapse rates completely suck. Updrafts are really going to have issues developing today. PWATS are still fairly high, the column is pretty damn moist, there is no cap, pretty decent inversion above the sfc...heavy rain will be the threat once again today. Any storms working in will become elevated very quickly and just pose a threat for heavy rain/flash flooding...many some CG strikes. given all the breaks in the cloud deck over PA/NY that region should be able to destabilize OK. there seems to be a little region of decent mid-level lapse rates from the DCA to ALB region that should help. decent 0-6km shear in the southern half of that area so maybe some svr cells in PA and NJ? could see some of that entering western CT/MA and holding severe for a brief time maybe before crapping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 58/58, another disaster day. Looks like sun-fri we have 78-84 highs with sun...finally...looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The hideousness of this weather is just turning into its own climate event at this point: http://weather.cod.e...atrad/index.php We are racking up 15 to 20 degree negative departures daily at this point. If this persists much longer this will appear uncanningly strange in having this seemingly physically impossible heat sink pin-pointed precisely on SNE while everyone else around the dial is actually modestly above normal for June in the NE part of the country. This is ...our problem. In the 30 years I've lived in SNE, I have never seen a summer so distinctly and precisely affected by the compound factorization of a cold Labrodor current/air mass teaming up with an NAO that I see as verifying more negative than the models are deriving ...quite frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 This weather is so fooking depressing, wife and I were kid free this morning so we said screw it I will get a late start and work a half day tomorrow. Even though it was cloudy, at least taking a long walk on the beach lifted our spirits, we both live for summer and the beach. I am suffering from light deprivation for sure LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Love this weather. Miami tomorrow morning. LETSSSS GOOOGOGOOGOGOGOGO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The NAM still stuggles to warm sector us tomorrow. Frankly, it may have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 The NAM still stuggles to warm sector us tomorrow. Frankly, it may have the right idea. Even down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The NAM still stuggles to warm sector us tomorrow. Frankly, it may have the right idea. yeah its had that boundary just kind of gradually eroding with time...hoping for sunday. euro kind of had the same idea. i wonder if it's the kind of thing tomorrow where parts of the area manage some brighter skies/pockets of sun just thanks to weaker lift over the cold dome and some areas of drier air aloft...so we see more spots into the lower 70s, but those folks who remain gray are basically stuck with the same old same old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 kevin is noticeably absent today...wonder if he passed out in all the heat and humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 If you look at HPC's current sfc analysis you can clearly see what is going on: http://www.hpc.ncep..../sfc/90fwbg.gif Despite only having a 1024mb sfc ridge, the spatial involvement of that up over Greenland and the D. Straight is truly mammoth - off the charts large really. That means that by relative measure that is an extreme positive pressure anomaly, and, it is so massive that it is actually nosing all the way down ...over a 1,000 miles toward the SW; it is pointed into and wedged up against the topography of western New England as it most extended edge of influence. There is no better quintessential definition of annoying when looking at that. Now ...normally, those features have the "look" of a transitioning baroclinics that have these boundary translating right along, but not this..... Oddly, this configuraiton has been stuck for 3 days now... What makes that fantastically excruciating (from the Met perspective) is that the trough aloft associated with that occluding low over the GL is an open wave that has been stationary per the course. 3 days of stationary OPEN WAVE. I think there may be only one possible way in the infinity of plausible permutations to get an open wave to not move and we've found it. Infinity to 1 odds ... no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 If you look at HPC's current sfc analysis you can clearly see what is going on: http://www.hpc.ncep..../sfc/90fwbg.gif Despite only having a 1024mb sfc ridge, the spatial involvement of that up over Greenland and the D. Straight is truly mammoth - off the charts large really. That means that by relative measure that is an extreme positive pressure anomaly, and, it is so massive that it is actually nosing all the way down ...over a 1,000 miles toward the SW; it is pointed into and wedged up against the topography of western New England as it most extended edge of influence. There is no better quintessential definition of annoying when looking at that. Now ...normally, those features have the "look" of a transitioning baroclinics that have these boundary translating right along, but not this..... Oddly, this configuraiton has been stuck for 3 days now... What makes that fantastically excruciating (from the Met perspective) is that the trough aloft associated with that occluding low over the GL is an open wave that has been stationary per the course. 3 days of stationary OPEN WAVE. I think there may be only one possible way in the infinity of plausible permutations to get an open wave to not move and we've found it. Infinity to 1 odds ... no problem. it's definitely an ugly set-up. you could see the writing on the wall early in the week with that big ULL way to our northeast...guidance wasn't giving much surface respect relative to the upper level confluence but has, with time, caught on. now you've got that 1024 high you mention. the wave, though, i think has been a closed feature for several days. it's only just now starting to open up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 yeah its had that boundary just kind of gradually eroding with time...hoping for sunday. euro kind of had the same idea. i wonder if it's the kind of thing tomorrow where parts of the area manage some brighter skies/pockets of sun just thanks to weaker lift over the cold dome and some areas of drier air aloft...so we see more spots into the lower 70s, but those folks who remain gray are basically stuck with the same old same old Yeah I think some areas will brighten up and probably some breaks, especially inland. Kind of light flow, but like you said...drier air aloft. Might lead to a few tstms out west later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 already some storms firing in PA - wonder if eventually that ends up as our final round of organized shower activity later today or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.