Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I'm surprised SPC kept us in the slight risk today..even added 2% TOR for Wiz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 More paired aardvarks and armadillos for Hubba Hubba today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 those look like some pretty serious rains N of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Hvy rains/thunder on the doorstep of BDL...Congrats Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Hvy rains/thunder on the doorstep of BDL...Congrats Phil you guys could get a lot of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 you guys could get a lot of water. Looks like it's moving though..backedge seems to be moving..so maybe 2-3 hours of mod-hvy rains??Unless we get some more behind that..though it looks like sun is coming out behind it in NY state and PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 63/63 with a NE wind and a gray sky that was totally smooth in Ayer. May as well have been 23/23 after a major ice storm in January given this weather pattern. It really is pretty interesting what is going on from a purely meteorological perspective. The NAO is not overwhelmingly negative, but has been heretofore nonetheless. … This has contributed to an episode of confluence N of Maine around the backside of a weak “50/50 low”. That has built a bit of a sfc +pressure anomaly in that region, not too dissimilar to what sets up during our winter storms actually, where that causes NE incursive damming…not allowing warm fronts to gain any latitude N of NYC. What is a blessing to winter weather zealots is an utter menace in summer. The only way to really get this out of here is to break it all down.. That high up N needs to dismantle, and the trough that is anomalously slow in its eastward migration needs to clear our longitude. In other words, forget any hope of clearing on the front side of that trough… We need to reset the system with a NW backside house cleaning. Or in the least a quasi cleaning. I for one cannot wait to get this out of here. This is the 3rd system that has done this during this young warm season. Without all the satellite technologies and obs you’d think there was a closed low on the MA it is so bad. If you loop this image you can clearly see the llv wedge penetrating S of LI! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php Man do I love your posts. Its like the highlight of my weather related musings each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Looks like it's moving though..backedge seems to be moving..so maybe 2-3 hours of mod-hvy rains??Unless we get some more behind that..though it looks like sun is coming out behind it in NY state and PA Wonder if we see another round very late day into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Wonder if we see another round very late day into the evening. Nam and RUC seems to think that's the case.. anothet batch around 10-3 am..hopefully we some sun after this batch.. here's to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Looks like it's moving though..backedge seems to be moving..so maybe 2-3 hours of mod-hvy rains??Unless we get some more behind that..though it looks like sun is coming out behind it in NY state and PA guidance is kind of struggling with the timing and strength of these mid-level theta-e pulses we keep seeing. i wouldn't be surprised if we do this one more time either later tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Wonder if we see another round very late day into the evening. Yeah looks like maybe a decent light show in places tonight?? What do you think about tomorrow? I need to mow my lawn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 no doubt phil knocked it out of the park, this weather is miserable, the rain was nice but this is over the top now, busy next week treating dollar spot and red thread on the lawns and fungal pathogens in the gardens and shrubs. 72 humid! awaiting the downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 guidance is kind of struggling with the timing and strength of these mid-level theta-e pulses we keep seeing. i wouldn't be surprised if we do this one more time either later tonight or tomorrow. Are you surprised with how far east SPC has the threat today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 can't see how there isn't flash flooding going on all across NNJ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Are you surprised with how far east SPC has the threat today? well from their national perspective, no not really i guess. they have to draw a line somewhere. i think i would personally push those lines westward because any of that good stuff that fires in PA/NJ seems destined just to become elevated hvy rainers in CT. if things were more dynamic you could maybe see the threat extending eastward a bit despite the low level junk we have, but in my eyes, it's not as though those areas to our SW are in "ideal" conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 All that stuff moved south of here, but nevertheless no sunny breaks...Just socked in and 64.5. can't see how there isn't flash flooding going on all across NNJ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 somebody in NNJ to SE NY, maybe SW CT, is going to get smoked with rain. ffw now up in the NNJ. has to be several inch/hr type rains coming with those cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 driving through a downpour/tstorm on rt 8 heavy heavy rain...time to build the ark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 driving through a downpour/tstorm on rt 8 heavy heavy rain...time to build the ark raining hard in Collinsville at our workplaces, about to get harder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 raining hard in Collinsville at our workplaces, weenie soft can you make it harder I don't think he plays that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yeah looks like maybe a decent light show in places tonight?? What do you think about tomorrow? I need to mow my lawn lol The NAM tries to swing something through later tonight, but like Phil said..it's really tough to time this stuff. I could see more cells firing in ern PA and trying to make a run at areas like Danbury this evening as well..it's a tough call. Tomorrow looks like a NJ severe day, but perhaps extending into se NY and wrrn CT by late day. They seem to do well with these triple point lows in se NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The NAM tries to swing something through later tonight, but like Phil said..it's really tough to time this stuff. I could see more cells firing in ern PA and trying to make a run at areas like Danbury this evening as well..it's a tough call. Tomorrow looks like a NJ severe day, but perhaps extending into se NY and wrrn CT by late day. They seem to do well with these triple point lows in se NY. Do you think we see clearing tonight or breaks of sun tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Do you think we see clearing tonight or breaks of sun tomorrow? I wouldn't really count on it. it's possible that we could see brightening or a break of sun in the interior as the mid level temporarily dry out, but I would say we are socked in..especially up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I don't think he plays that way You never know with truck drivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Nice weak low and an apparent weak LLJ over NJ. There is also a weak s/w coming through. That's probably aiding the heavy rain that's right along the front, currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I wouldn't really count on it. it's possible that we could see brightening or a break of sun in the interior as the mid level temporarily dry out, but I would say we are socked in..especially up that way. So you think the mist/ fog will clear up tonight as we dry in the mid levels? That should help with golf tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 scooter mentioned last night how in some ways this is playing like a winter time SWFE. one thing we always say with those is the best stuff moves in faster than guidance says it will and the mid-level dry punch arrives quicker than guidance says. another interesting/related aspect with this set-up (if you assume guidance didn't just completely swing and miss with yesterday's precip) is a few days ago it looked like yesterday's rain would fall during the overnight hours last night, ending midday today...then another round would come in tonight. seems like everything is a solid 6 hours faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 So you think the mist/ fog will clear up tonight as we dry in the mid levels? That should help with golf tomorrow No this stuff won't clear up. It will probably be damp tomorrow for the golf game. I was saying that some areas might be brightening tomorrow...especially CT. It looks worse up that way to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Deluge has arrived in Windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 scooter mentioned last night how in some ways this is playing like a winter time SWFE. one thing we always say with those is the best stuff moves in faster than guidance says it will and the mid-level dry punch arrives quicker than guidance says. another interesting/related aspect with this set-up (if you assume guidance didn't just completely swing and miss with yesterday's precip) is a few days ago it looked like yesterday's rain would fall during the overnight hours last night, ending midday today...then another round would come in tonight. seems like everything is a solid 6 hours faster Timing has been real difficult with these features. The 12z GFS from yesterday seemed to have an idea that it might come in during the morning, but was still slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.