ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 LoL. It's from Steve Sauter's site in Ashfield (which has been off-line for a few weeks for some reason). It's on a NOAA link that appears on his site. I only hit 80 twice in May and 4 times this month so I can't imagine there can much of a positive departure from normal if any. But you're the Met so you tell me. Has the East Slope of the Berkshires seen well above normal temps for the past 3 months as Kevin contends? Of course, I think that assertion is pure poppycock. (Until we get a legit Winter storm threat it's this temp talk that will have to entertain us.) My guess is we are seeing the average for that site and that "average" may be derived from a small sample pool as I'm not sure the site has been active for very long. Either way, I like my call for a cool rainy summer. Seems to be working so far.lol How's the golf game? I think May have been slightly above average there along with April. June has not been above average there though...most stations (who aren't already) should be below average for the month by the end of this week. It would be interesting to see where the "average" at that site comes from because its monthly average temperatures are higher than ORH and that doesn't make any sense since Ashfield is a colder place. Golf game is non-existent this year, lol. Haven't even been to the range yet. I'll break out the clubs by July hopefully. Last year was good to get back into a groove even if for only 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Any mets have an idea on friday yet?Golf tournament 8-12 am.. The course doesn't hold water well so I have my doubts with the 2" of downpours throughout the night so far Based on New Nam... no golf for next 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 18z mav is cold on friday. 62F @ BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Looks like the warm front on Friday is going to be draped right across CT somewhere...perhaps just south of the MA Pike? Anyways though it will be real interesting to see if we can get any breaks of sunshine whatsoever. These types of setups kind of suck though, good shear, instability can be decent, but ML lapse rates completely blow which limits instability/updraft strength. 9 times out of 10 these setups don't produce but that one time they do they can pack a decent punch, at least locally. This is a setup that usually favors eastern NY/far western CT for anything usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 You would be sitting on the good side of the CF ready for a dog walk. Indeed! What a difference in seasons. Now any excuse not to go out....lol... Got drenched on my walk home from work tonight even with the umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 OMGGG WHITEY HAS BEEN ARRESTED IN SANTA MONICAAAAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Those June positive temperature anomalies are shrinking daily.... Probably be gone in a few days. I think most SNE/NY stations are going to end up slightly above normal for June. Most places are between 1-2F above average, it may come down a little bit with today and tomorrow being so overcast, but it's not as if we're having a big Nor'easter right now with widespread -10 daily anomalies. Even though rainfall will cool the days somewhat, we're mostly in a warm sector, and nighttime temperatures are going to be mild. Also, NW flow and mild 850s on the backside of this system will cause the coastal stations that experience a downsloping component to have some warmer days early next week. Here's what the NWS forecast has for Hartford, CT starting tomorrow: 76/63, 81/63, 83/62, 83/61, 86/61, 85/65. The average high at BDL is 81F now, so the only cooler than normal day is really tomorrow. The last couple of days will tack on more positive departures, so you're not losing much overall. As for Pete, the High Plains Regional Climate Center maps show that Western Massachusetts was above average for May: -NAO in summer tends to correlate well with heat coming out of the plains and then getting shoved into the SE US. Though we saw some exceptions last summer. I know one of our heat waves occurred during a -NAO. Summer 2010 had a -NAO and was the hottest summer on record for much of the East Coast: The other day in school my class was talking about how they should take away our winter vacation for an extra week in summer vacation because there was "nothing to do in the winter." What a horrible thing to say lol. Most states other than NY and MA have fewer vacations during the year, but end school earlier in June. They sacrifice February/President's break, and some of them MLK long weekend, in order to get school to end around June 5-10 instead of June 20-25 like we have. I tend to agree with this approach: having school until late June means you miss one of the nicest months of the year and end up stuck in a crowded and often stuffy building. Many schools do not have central A/C, and it's extremely uncomfortable for students and staff in June. My high school did not have A/C, and we had a couple of early dismissals when temperatures were pushing 100F outside, probably 110F in the 3rd floor classrooms. I am a substitute teacher now, and doing my teaching license next year, and I work in many buildings without A/C, and there have been some sultry days this June. I know how much we both love winter, but I do see the sense in having summer vacation start the first week of June to avoid excessive heat and give a longer/more consolidated break instead of several short vacations/long weekends. In the end, however, it still adds up to 180 days. As long as they don't take summer vacation away as has been proposed, I'm OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Summer 2010 had a -NAO and was the hottest summer on record for much of the East Coast: A -NAO actually correlates well to big heat from about DC southward in the summer. I believe that is where most of the records were broken. We had a hot summer too which is a bit out of character for a -NAO summer, but it doesn't always work out perfectly. There were obviously other variables that overrode the NAO last summer. The NAO wasn't insanely negative anyway last summer, only lightly negative until August when it became much more negative. 2009 had a very negative NAO summer and that was the 2nd coldest summer on record for many spots in New England (1992 is coldest in a lot of places) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 A -NAO actually correlates well to big heat from about DC southward in the summer. I believe that is where most of the records were broken. We had a hot summer too which is a bit out of character for a -NAO summer, but it doesn't always work out perfectly. There were obviously other variables that overrode the NAO last summer. The NAO wasn't insanely negative anyway last summer, only lightly negative until August when it became much more negative. 2009 had a very negative NAO summer and that was the 2nd coldest summer on record for many spots in New England (1992 is coldest in a lot of places) Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 My world has come full circle...... unfreakin believable... p.s. it rained cats and dogs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Why is that? I think it's because the -NAO in summer forces troughing across the Northern Tier, particularly the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. This troughing has to be balanced out by ridging someplace else, especially considering the storm track in June when blocking seems to cause a lot of low pressure systems to cut across the Dakotas or Upper Lakes, creating a warm sector/high heights to the south. For example, Summer 2009 had cold anomalies over most of the northern states, but the Southern Plains torched with slightly above normal warmth in the Southeast. 2010 was an odd summer, in that a fairly powerful NAO block (although it wasn't as extreme as 2009) didn't produce much in the way of cool air. I think this was a result of the leftover warmth from the strong El Niño, as well as the fact that the Pacific pattern had torched Canada for all of the winter, leaving very little cold air/snow cover up there for late spring and early summer, which allowed the heat to expand north earlier than usual. June was a particularly hot month with NYC finishing +3.4, DCA finishing +6.1F, and RIC finishing a whopping +7.6F. Those are large anomalies, especially for a month that doesn't see as much deviation in the jet stream. Just crazy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Why is that? The polar jet is much further north and weaker in the summer so the normal NAO influence of cold over the entire east is muted and lifted northward in summer. Only New England back to NY State and N Great Lakes correlate to cooler temps from a -NAO in the summer and the heat ridging from the sub-tropics gets to flex its muscles just south of that gradient in the southeast US. The correlations though are generally weaker too in addition to being further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I think it's because the -NAO in summer forces troughing across the Northern Tier, particularly the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. This troughing has to be balanced out by ridging someplace else, especially considering the storm track in June when blocking seems to cause a lot of low pressure systems to cut across the Dakotas or Upper Lakes, creating a warm sector/high heights to the south. For example, Summer 2009 had cold anomalies over most of the northern states, but the Southern Plains torched with slightly above normal warmth in the Southeast. 2010 was an odd summer, in that a fairly powerful NAO block (although it wasn't as extreme as 2009) didn't produce much in the way of cool air. I think this was a result of the leftover warmth from the strong El Niño, as well as the fact that the Pacific pattern had torched Canada for all of the winter, leaving very little cold air/snow cover up there for late spring and early summer, which allowed the heat to expand north earlier than usual. June was a particularly hot month with NYC finishing +3.4, DCA finishing +6.1F, and RIC finishing a whopping +7.6F. Those are large anomalies, especially for a month that doesn't see as much deviation in the jet stream. Just crazy!!! That goes along with the potential vorticity/angular momentum conservation theory I was reading about the other day. You can see a big heat ridge building in the southern plains on the GFS. Not sure what the ECM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The polar jet is much further north and weaker in the summer so the normal NAO influence of cold over the entire east is muted and lifted northward in summer. Only New England back to NY State and N Great Lakes correlate to cooler temps from a -NAO in the summer and the heat ridging from the sub-tropics gets to flex its muscles just south of that gradient in the southeast US. The correlations though are generally weaker too in addition to being further north. Right, less polar jet influence that makes sense. You're also saying that any -NAO is less potent in the summer than winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Right, less polar jet influence that makes sense. You're also saying that any -NAO is less potent in the summer than winter? Its influence is less potent because the jet stream is weaker. You have a lesser temperature gradient in the summer than winter. So being on either side of the temp gradient does not produce as large of temperature departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I think May have been slightly above average there along with April. June has not been above average there though...most stations (who aren't already) should be below average for the month by the end of this week. It would be interesting to see where the "average" at that site comes from because its monthly average temperatures are higher than ORH and that doesn't make any sense since Ashfield is a colder place. Golf game is non-existent this year, lol. Haven't even been to the range yet. I'll break out the clubs by July hopefully. Last year was good to get back into a groove even if for only 4-6 weeks. Well, it's certainly been a comfortable warm season so far for those of us that work outside. Get out there and hit the devil ball. It's so much fun. I wouldn't be able to get through Summer if I didn't have something to distract me from the awful fact that there is no snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 60/60, There is one good thing about this time of year. With the days being so long you can get an awful lot done in a day. Work hard/ play hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 AWT. BDL will struggle for 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Well take heart .... we lose 6 seconds of daylight today, 10 secs tomorrow, 14 secs on Saturday, 18 secs on Sunday, 22 secs on Monday, 26 secs on Tuesday............ 62 here... after yesterdays spread of 59/64. 60/60, There is one good thing about this time of year. With the days being so long you can get an awful lot done in a day. Work hard/ play hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I'm not totally sure I see a reason for the slight risk to include parts of SNE both today and tomorrow. Perhaps stuff from NY just makes it into western sections potentially producing some severe but I would think any convection would become more elevated rather quickly. Luckily though with the high dewpoints in place we should become at least somewhat unstable at the surface but not a great deal. Shear aloft is strong so perhaps we see a few wind damage reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 OMGGG WHITEY HAS BEEN ARRESTED IN SANTA MONICAAAAA Who the hell is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 AWT. BDL will struggle for 70. LOL..71 or 72 today AWT Ryan has 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Who the hell is that? His uncle. Jk #1 FBI fugitive Winter Hill Gang mobster Pretty bad dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 His uncle. Jk #1 FBI fugitive Winter Hill Gang mobster Pretty bad dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It's already 65 at BDL.. with no rain till late and breaks midday 70 is easy Tomorrow might be closer to 80 at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 nice soaking rain overnight. ~1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It's already 65 at BDL.. with no rain till late and breaks midday 70 is easy Tomorrow might be closer to 80 at BDL. I'll go with 71F at BDL today As for tomorrow...haven't looked a great deal, more worried about today right now with camp but I'll go with 74F tomorrow at BDL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It's already 65 at BDL.. with no rain till late and breaks midday 70 is easy Tomorrow might be closer to 80 at BDL. That will be extremely tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 That will be extremely tough. How? The w/f is north of BDL tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 How? The w/f is north of BDL tomorrow i don't think it ever really pushes north into SNE...probably just washes out on saturday as this whole mess finally shifts east. until then, locked in with ENE flow until saturday sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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