ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 yeah it really has struggled after day 5/6 it seems...i don't know if it's always been that way and we just give it too much credit or if it's a more recent phenomenon. Its never been good after 5-6....we just tend to look a little further ahead in time than we used to as models have slowly improved. We don't really notice it, but guidance is certainly better than it was in, say, 2006 or 2007. Not by a ton, but enough that we've subtly stretched our vision beyond D5-6. I think I said many times back on eastern, that the GFS ensemble mean out performs the OP ECMWF after day 6. That I still true I believe. Euro ensemble though is still the best way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Rain seems to be filling in nicely over SVT and NH, what a washout of an afternoon.. hopefully this crap can get out of here by Friday at 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 AWT??? ORH with a 65 dew AWT?? Will's dinky stuck to his leg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 i think the 00z mav was like 81F or something at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 ORH with a 65 dew AWT?? Will's dinky stuck to his leg 65/65 is fine with me. Its 80/65 that is nasty. I have the window fans in today and the house is actually quite cool with the outside air being drawn in. Summer of 2009 had a lot of 65/65 or 63/63 type days. It was very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 65/65 is fine with me. Its 80/65 that is nasty. I have the window fans in today and the house is actually quite cool with the outside air being drawn in. Summer of 2009 had a lot of 65/65 or 63/63 type days. It was very cool. I like the IJD temp/td obs personlly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Its never been good after 5-6....we just tend to look a little further ahead in time than we used to as models have slowly improved. We don't really notice it, but guidance is certainly better than it was in, say, 2006 or 2007. Not by a ton, but enough that we've subtly stretched our vision beyond D5-6. I think I said many times back on eastern, that the GFS ensemble mean out performs the OP ECMWF after day 6. That I still true I believe. Euro ensemble though is still the best way to go. yeah good point. in some ways it would be better if it still just ran to day 7. its post 144 or 168 accuracy is not good, but it also has been coming up with some really odd-ball solutions it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Its never been good after 5-6....we just tend to look a little further ahead in time than we used to as models have slowly improved. We don't really notice it, but guidance is certainly better than it was in, say, 2006 or 2007. Not by a ton, but enough that we've subtly stretched our vision beyond D5-6. I think I said many times back on eastern, that the GFS ensemble mean out performs the OP ECMWF after day 6. That I still true I believe. Euro ensemble though is still the best way to go. Euro ensemble to me seems to be leading the way this spring. I don't have the raw numbers in front of me..but I'm just going by memory. The euro op had some winning moments, like a few weeks ago when it had the stubborn cutoff to our east...but it seems a little shaky lately. It doesn't matter to me, since I use it more in the short range anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I like the IJD temp/td obs personlly close to tolland climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I like the IJD temp/td obs personlly Well that is certainly closer to your climo than ORH, so I think you should use it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well that is certainly closer to your climo than ORH, so I think you should use it more. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well that is certainly closer to your climo than ORH, so I think you should use it more. Hook, line and sinker lol..foolish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Yeah, what is up with those freakin' coastals on the euro..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I like the IJD temp/td obs personlly Yes you seem to use IJD and HFD all the time in the winter months...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Yes you seem to use IJD and HFD all the time in the winter months...... Temps and dews forecast tomorow at BDL? And answering"I haven't looked at much ,I'm off today" won't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Temps and dews forecast tomorow at BDL? And answering"I haven't looked at much ,I'm off today" won't work I am working... forecasting 75. Dew points probably upper 60s most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I am working... forecasting 75. Dew points probably upper 60s most of the day. AYAIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Congrats WIZ MAIN POINTS... *SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... MID-LVL FRONT THE FOCUS OF WHICH THE BETTER THETAE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AS MDL SOLNS EXHIBIT A CONTINUED GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE H5 OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE GRT LKS RGN. WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIP CHCS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODEST THETAE AIR INTO A VERY MOIST AND JUICY ATMOS PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. FEEL THE BETTER PRECIP CHCS WILL RESIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT AS MDL SOLNS EXHIBIT A TROF AXIS WITH ATTENDANT SHRTWV ENERGY AND H3 JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW PRES THRU THE NEW ENGLAND RGN. CONSIDERING THE NEAR- OCCLUSION OF THE MAIN LOW...DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRAINING INTO AND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION AT THE SFC...SO CANT RULE OUT SEEING SOME SUN THRU THE DAY. AS SUCH AM LIKENED TO THE 12Z NAM SOLN OF SFC-BASED CAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PRES FALLS AND Q-VECT CONV AT MID-LVLS ACROSS THE HUDSON RVR VLY RGN DEVELOPING A DISCREET LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTN TOWARDS DUSK...AS SHEAR VECTORS ARE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN TROF AXIS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROF AXIS AND SHRTWV ENERGY/ENHANCED ASCENT...LIFTING NEWD WITH THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE FCST RGN...BECOMING ELEVATED INTO THE EVNG PERIOD OVER THE SFC COLD POOL. THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30-40 KTS...0-1/0-3 HELICITY IS VERY ROBUST ALONG THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH GRADUALLY LIFTS N THRU THE FCST RGN IN RESPONSE TO THE ROTATING MID-LVL TROF AXIS. FEEL MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD A DISCREET LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP...BUT ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED EFFECTS OF VORTICITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD RESULT IN TORNADOGENESIS. NAM MDL SOUNDINGS OUT OF BDL AROUND 0Z SATURDAY ARE EXHIBITING SOME FAIRLY GOOD CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LVLS. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH METNAM FOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Yeah, what is up with those freakin' coastals on the euro..lol. the first one looks like convective feedback i guess. the vortmax just sort of explodes out of nowhere in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Congrats WIZ MAIN POINTS... *SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... MID-LVL FRONT THE FOCUS OF WHICH THE BETTER THETAE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AS MDL SOLNS EXHIBIT A CONTINUED GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE H5 OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE GRT LKS RGN. WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIP CHCS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODEST THETAE AIR INTO A VERY MOIST AND JUICY ATMOS PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. FEEL THE BETTER PRECIP CHCS WILL RESIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT AS MDL SOLNS EXHIBIT A TROF AXIS WITH ATTENDANT SHRTWV ENERGY AND H3 JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW PRES THRU THE NEW ENGLAND RGN. CONSIDERING THE NEAR- OCCLUSION OF THE MAIN LOW...DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRAINING INTO AND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION AT THE SFC...SO CANT RULE OUT SEEING SOME SUN THRU THE DAY. AS SUCH AM LIKENED TO THE 12Z NAM SOLN OF SFC-BASED CAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PRES FALLS AND Q-VECT CONV AT MID-LVLS ACROSS THE HUDSON RVR VLY RGN DEVELOPING A DISCREET LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTN TOWARDS DUSK...AS SHEAR VECTORS ARE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN TROF AXIS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL TROF AXIS AND SHRTWV ENERGY/ENHANCED ASCENT...LIFTING NEWD WITH THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE FCST RGN...BECOMING ELEVATED INTO THE EVNG PERIOD OVER THE SFC COLD POOL. THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30-40 KTS...0-1/0-3 HELICITY IS VERY ROBUST ALONG THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH GRADUALLY LIFTS N THRU THE FCST RGN IN RESPONSE TO THE ROTATING MID-LVL TROF AXIS. FEEL MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD A DISCREET LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP...BUT ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED EFFECTS OF VORTICITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD RESULT IN TORNADOGENESIS. NAM MDL SOUNDINGS OUT OF BDL AROUND 0Z SATURDAY ARE EXHIBITING SOME FAIRLY GOOD CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LVLS. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH METNAM FOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. Good discussion and yeah there is some potential if we can warm sector and get some good instability in here. Models not overly impressive with instability but there's definitely some good shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I noticed the euro seemed bullish for QPF (I assume tstms) as well for late Friday and Friday Night. The question is instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 AYAIT BDL area has a unique climate relative to 95%of the rest of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well all kidding aside with BDL temps....I think tomorrow is a tough call imo. If you can get some brightening of the skies or perhaps a break or two, then I could see maybe low or mid 70s. But, if that rain comes in quick enough along with ne-n drainage of the wind, then it's possible they don't go above 70. It's all QPF driven as far as temps go. I just don't like that wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I also would not be shocked to see storms in western and southwest SNE tomorrow aftn, then moving east perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well all kidding aside with BDL temps....I think tomorrow is a tough call imo. If you can get some brightening of the skies or perhaps a break or two, then I could see maybe low or mid 70s. But, if that rain comes in quick enough along with ne-n drainage of the wind, then it's possible they don't go above 70. It's all QPF driven as far as temps go. I just don't like that wind direction. Do not know how familiar you are with that area but having spent a lot of time through the years driving into Hartford I can attest to it's ability to heat up quickly. Often times the surrounding countryside is cooler and fresher feeling and smelling. As you approach the sudden increase in heat and general city smell quickly absorbs into all your pores. Quite possibly the valley and heat dome plays a huge part in it's micro clime. How anyone could drive daily into that metroplex of heat, stink and traffic in the summer .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Do not know how familiar you are with that area but having spent a lot of time through the years driving into Hartford I can attest to it's ability to heat up quickly. Often times the surrounding countryside is cooler and fresher feeling and smelling. As you approach the sudden increase in heat and general city smell quickly absorbs into all your pores. Quite possibly the valley and heat dome plays a huge part in it's micro clime. How anyone could drive daily into that metroplex of heat, stink and traffic in the summer .... That's a little dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well all kidding aside with BDL temps....I think tomorrow is a tough call imo. If you can get some brightening of the skies or perhaps a break or two, then I could see maybe low or mid 70s. But, if that rain comes in quick enough along with ne-n drainage of the wind, then it's possible they don't go above 70. It's all QPF driven as far as temps go. I just don't like that wind direction. looking back i didn't realize how below normal 70 is at BDL. ave high there is 81/82. so they can pull a -10F tomorrow and still be 72F. LOL. they are basically bringing in a -14 today but the actual daily high will be 70 or 71 because of the midnight temp. but they've held in the middle 60s for most of the day. i think spirit of the law will apply here - which is these days are ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 That's a little dramatic HLS, waiting for the bigger fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 sun broke out the last 15 minutes temp up to 75. Very nice storms exploding sw of nyc, should be a fun night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 looking back i didn't realize how below normal 70 is at BDL. ave high there is 81/82. so they can pull a -10F tomorrow and still be 72F. LOL. they are basically bringing in a -14 today but the actual daily high will be 70 or 71 because of the midnight temp. but they've held in the middle 60s for most of the day. i think spirit of the law will apply here - which is these days are ugly. Yeah today was awful AMOUT Tomorrow doesn't look much better though I think there may be a dry period mid morning through early/mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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