Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yeah Kevin's weather is definitely not representative of a place like ORH or up through NE MA. We'll often be east wind and 62F while its like 70F down there with breaks of sun...then in winter the CAD events he'll be 34F and rain while its 29F and icing here. Location can change perspective. such is the climate of CT. i think based on how he's described it in the past the tolland climo is basically a mix of BDL and IJD. maybe that's what happens this week. maybe it'll time out such that a lot of CT gets a bit more brightening or something to that effect. geographically speaking 2/3rds of the area will be stuck in clouds and cool temps but it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 On a side note, today is perfect here. Nice seabreeze keeping temps near 80 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 On a side note, today is perfect here. Nice seabreeze keeping temps near 80 right now yeah it is really nice out. hardly a cloud and low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 On a side note, today is perfect here. Nice seabreeze keeping temps near 80 right now The low humidity recently has been really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 On a side note, today is perfect here. Nice seabreeze keeping temps near 80 right now A touch too warm for work outside in jeans.. a bit sweaty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hey MRG, you out of the 60's yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 yeah it is really nice out. hardly a cloud and low humidity. The low humidity recently has been really nice. It's awesome. Perhaps a little warm in the sun, but just perfect for everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 such is the climate of CT. i think based on how he's described it in the past the tolland climo is basically a mix of BDL and IJD. maybe that's what happens this week. maybe it'll time out such that a lot of CT gets a bit more brightening or something to that effect. geographically speaking 2/3rds of the area will be stuck in clouds and cool temps but it won't matter. He will tell you nobody lives in that 2/3s, man what a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 LOL, you love to throw that in. He's thrown that in like 5 x just this summer when it's not even close to reality 9x out of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 He's thrown that in like 5 x just this summer when it's not even close to reality 9x out of 10 Lol, its happened like half a dozen times in the past 3 winters. Its actually pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Lol, its happened like half a dozen times in the past 3 winters. Its actually pretty common. So 4 or 5 times in 3 entire winters is pretty common? That's like saying tornados are pretty common in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Funny you mention that, because a friend of mine said the exact same thing yesterday. We've had persistent weak ridging to our northeast, and that's been more stubborn as compared to what models were forecasting. I think last week, models were trying to go + with the NAO, but that isn't happening yet. The euro has the NAO going neutral, but not until just after 7/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 So 4 or 5 times in 3 entire winters is pretty common? That's like saying tornados are pretty common in SNE An event averaging happening twice in a season is not that common? Well whatever floats your boat. But it happens pretty much every single winter. Hardly the same frequency of which a tornado tracks within 10 miles of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 An event averaging happening twice in a season is not that common? Well whatever floats your boat. But it happens pretty much every single winter. Hardly the same frequency of which a tornado tracks within 10 miles of you. No, I and most others would say that is an infrequent event.. Flurries happen commonly in winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Bottle today please, back out to enjoy, time for the raft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 No, I and most others would say that is an infrequent event.. Flurries happen commonly in winter.. They might not happen frequently, but when they do...usually his area has the benefit. Hey, even in those events you are colder than me many times, but I know you have a competition going with him and Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 No, I and most others would say that is an infrequent event.. Flurries happen commonly in winter.. For a large scale precipitation event, that is a relatively common occurrence. Its like saying snowfalls of 8"+ are relatively common here...we average a couple to three per season but we don't view a snowfall of 8"+ as a rare event like further down south. We expect them every single winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 They might not happen frequently, but when they do...usually his area has the benefit. Hey, even in those events you are colder than me many times, but I know you have a competition going with him and Ray. No arguments there..he certainly has the benfit and upper hand on those events..but to say they are a common occurrence is incorrect. they are uncommon meaning maybe 1-2 x a winter they happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 No arguments there..he certainly has the benfit and upper hand on those events..but to say they are a common occurrence is incorrect. they are uncommon meaning maybe 1-2 x a winter they happen I guess it depends on how you look at it. While these events don't happen frequently, I wouldn't say it's uncommon. It happens a few times each winter during a Dec-Feb period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Its a yearly common occurance.. thats how i look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 wow...just does not get much better than today. very nice out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Apocalyptic heat ridge on the extended GFS ..particularly the 06Z version., but the 3-cycle blend approaches 3SD in the geopotential medium. It was on the 00z but is going nuts on the 06z and quite robust still on the 12z. While at minimum determinism is vague obviously for this time range and that is too much most likely, I do not buy the ECMWF’s idea of a full-latitude Rosby trough over eastern N/A approaching D10 either.. The 21 member GFS suite has a diving PNA; normally, that correlates less in the summer, BUT, the NAO is going positive so the two together likely is a different story as the synoptic medium would have to distort to conserve for both concurrent modes. My personal hunch here is there is between 10% and 50% probably for a heatwave of classic June 25-July 5th variety. This particular evolution would have ample potential for embedded Sonora airs/EMLs, for getting the hottest type of air that can be found up in this neck of the woods. Just for muse, the 06z GFS had large plume of +(21 to 23C) 850's passing WNW-ESE through a deeply mixed lower tropopshere and only moderate RH on D10. That's objectively 101-104 regional 2- meter T's should the obscene prevail. Don't ofter see that kind of profile in the charts As intimated, not buying those QPF fields either as the incredible suppression from all that astronomical mid level heights would cap everything under searing blue flame sky. For that, ...I am tipping my hat toward thinking that the departure means business but won't discuss magnitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 12z MOS for thu/fri are 60s for the much of the region. *but* kevin would get his 70+ at BDL/IJD/PVD if things were to play out exactly as MOS indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 wow...just does not get much better than today. very nice out there right now. Tanning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Tanning? yep laying out on top of the camaro as we speak. might grab my boombox and walk to the package store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 12z MOS for thu/fri are 60s for the much of the region. *but* kevin would get his 70+ at BDL/IJD/PVD if things were to play out exactly as MOS indicated. ARAIT As Ryan and i thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 yep laying out on top of the camaro as we speak. might grab my boombox and walk to the package store. LOL...nothing like a nice tank top tan in the summer Chics dig those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 LOL...nothing like a nice tank top tan in the summer Chics dig those yep. just cut the legs off my jeans and made some new shorts too. probably going to use some hawaiin dark oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 yep. just cut the legs off my jeans and made some new shorts too. probably going to use some hawaiin dark oil. Yeah either dark oil..or better yet baby oil..Just use like a half bottle..lay a towel on your roof, climb out the window and tan away on the roof. Nothing like laying on black tar asphalt shingles soaked in baby oil, tanning and listening to When Doves Cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Apocalyptic heat ridge on the extended GFS ..particularly the 06Z version., but the 3-cycle blend approaches 3SD in the geopotential medium. It was on the 00z but is going nuts on the 06z and quite robust still on the 12z. While at minimum determinism is vague obviously for this time range and that is too much most likely, I do not buy the ECMWF’s idea of a full-latitude Rosby trough over eastern N/A approaching D10 either.. The 21 member GFS suite has a diving PNA; normally, that correlates less in the summer, BUT, the NAO is going positive so the two together likely is a different story as the synoptic medium would have to distort to conserve for both concurrent modes. My personal hunch here is there is between 10% and 50% probably for a heatwave of classic June 25-July 5th variety. This particular evolution would have ample potential for embedded Sonora airs/EMLs, for getting the hottest type of air that can be found up in this neck of the woods. Just for muse, the 06z GFS had large plume of +(21 to 23C) 850's passing WNW-ESE through a deeply mixed lower tropopshere and only moderate RH on D10. That's objectively 101-104 regional 2- meter T's should the obscene prevail. Don't ofter see that kind of profile in the charts As intimated, not buying those QPF fields either as the incredible suppression from all that astronomical mid level heights would cap everything under searing blue flame sky. For that, ...I am tipping my hat toward thinking that the departure means business but won't discuss magnitudes. A classic tip foreign language post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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