Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II

[flwxwatcher45]

me too, except I don't have a stalled front

Florida hangs its hat on the Canadian.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06GGEMLoop.html

[Ed Lizard]

looks like the east coast trough is going to get even stronger. anyone have any idea when dt, and jb's west atlantic ridge will finally form?

Oh, remember back in May, LC was seeing a threat for Texas. Maybe this is what he was seeing.

Or not.

[rainstorm]

Oh, remember back in May, LC was seeing a threat for Texas. Maybe this is what he was seeing.

Or not.

possible. the lack of any semblance of a west atlantic ridge is becoming troubling for forecasts of more landfalls this season. this pattern seems rather simialr to last seasons pattern.

[Ed Lizard]

possible. the lack of any semblance of a west atlantic ridge is becoming troubling for forecasts of more landfalls this season. this pattern seems rather simialr to last seasons pattern.

It seems premature for a season cancel...

[HM]

This thread sucks.

[Ed Lizard]

This thread sucks.

Its only June, it'll get better.

[HM]

Its only June, it'll get better.

I wish I had my post from last year so I can repost it again this year. If you don't know what you're talking about, then stop. This thread is embarrassing and if I was a new-comer and saw this, I would leave in a second. Just stop dude.

[stormtracker]

possible. the lack of any semblance of a west atlantic ridge is becoming troubling for forecasts of more landfalls this season. this pattern seems rather simialr to last seasons pattern.

Pretty soon your 5 post status will seem rather similar to last season as well.

[MJW155]

possible. the lack of any semblance of a west atlantic ridge is becoming troubling for forecasts of more landfalls this season. this pattern seems rather simialr to last seasons pattern.

Are you for real? It's not even 10 days into hurricane season.

[am19psu]

Pretty soon your 5 post status will seem rather similar to last season as well.

I've been trying to not be harsh this early in the season, but its nonsense needs to end. Consider this the warning.

[Srain]

The GFS and Euro continue to advertise a strong tropical wave traversing the Atlantic and approaching the hostile Caribbean next week. The Euro suggests the energy will cross the Caribbean, which is highly sheared this time of year toward Nicaragua. The long range la la land GFS suggests that an area of vorticity will lift NW and near the Yucatan near June 20th, +/- a couple of days, and enter the Gulf. We will see. One thing of note is the lack of Saharan dust we often see in June crossing the Atlantic. WV/TPW imagery clearly shows higher moisture content and suggests that we may see a bit sooner start to Cape Verde season, if that does not change in the days and weeks ahead and may well be a harbinger of things to come.

[Ed Lizard]

That may be GFS la-la land, so not getting too excited yet, but that isn't the first GFS run to suggest that general scenario, and once again ensemble means suggest a break in the ridge that would allow anything that could be present to come into the Gulf.

The wave that came off Africa, while not looking like it will do anything at all soon, hasn't completely fallen apart and lost all convection like so many do this time of year.

[KEITH L.I]

wow..this thread is terrible..it's the first week in June.And let me remind everybody it takes one hurricane to make it a memorable season..you can have 20 storms and none have an inpact on the states..

[Srain]

It's a new day and a fresh start to making this thread more informative and readable. Those that follow and contribute to our tropical threads should make every effort to see that it stays positive and provides for a good dialog.

[battlebrick]

20% lemon again

[HurricaneJosh]

There have been some remarks recently Re: the quality of this thread.

Re: that... I launched this thread series back in 2006 (Omg!!1!) as a "catch-all" thread for the Tropical Dudes to just kind of chat, shoot the sh*t, speculate Re: upcoming pattern changes, compare analogs, sprinkle in a little history, analyze un-classified convective areas, and so on. So it's a sort of seamless blend of science, history, and pub conversation.

By its very nature, the thread has always had a casual, chitchatty feel, and I don't think that needs to change.

That having been said, I still think basic etiquette suggests that:

* Posts be meteorologically or historically informed.

* Any one person refrains from dominating the conversation.

Bottom line: it's really all about basic good judgment and conversational etiquette.

Enjoy.

[Srain]

MIMIC continues to suggest a moist East Atlantic and lack of Saharan dust. Long range guidance also suggest a tropical wave near the Windward Islands next week and the la la land GFS is still sniffing the W Caribbean/Gulf regions for possible development...

[bubba hotep]

There have been some remarks recently Re: the quality of this thread.

Re: that... I launched this thread series back in 2006 (Omg!!1!) as a "catch-all" thread for the Tropical Dudes to just kind of chat, shoot the sh*t, speculate Re: upcoming pattern changes, compare analogs, sprinkle in a little history, analyze un-classified convective areas, and so on. So it's a sort of seamless blend of science, history, and pub conversation.

By its very nature, the thread has always had a casual, chitchatty feel, and I don't think that needs to change.

That having been said, I still think basic etiquette suggests that:

* Posts be meteorologically or historically informed.

* Any one person refrains from dominating the conversation.

Bottom line: it's really all about basic good judgment and conversational etiquette.

Enjoy.

Bravo!

[Ed Lizard]

I've gotten a couple of PMs about this. I will not respond to rainstorm's season cancel type posts anymore. It does only encourage her.

[flwxwatcher45]

There have been some remarks recently Re: the quality of this thread.

Re: that... I launched this thread series back in 2006 (Omg!!1!) as a "catch-all" thread for the Tropical Dudes to just kind of chat, shoot the sh*t, speculate Re: upcoming pattern changes, compare analogs, sprinkle in a little history, analyze un-classified convective areas, and so on. So it's a sort of seamless blend of science, history, and pub conversation.

By its very nature, the thread has always had a casual, chitchatty feel, and I don't think that needs to change.

That having been said, I still think basic etiquette suggests that:

* Posts be meteorologically or historically informed.

* Any one person refrains from dominating the conversation.

Bottom line: it's really all about basic good judgment and conversational etiquette.

Enjoy.

Nice post, You will always have some friction any time you mix the Pros and the Joes. We have bumps in the road in this thread but we always seem to find a good middle ground, even though a few people try to derail the conversation at times. Keep up the good work.

[Ed Lizard]

The GFS and Euro continue to advertise a strong tropical wave traversing the Atlantic and approaching the hostile Caribbean next week. The Euro suggests the energy will cross the Caribbean, which is highly sheared this time of year toward Nicaragua. The long range la la land GFS suggests that an area of vorticity will lift NW and near the Yucatan near June 20th, +/- a couple of days, and enter the Gulf. We will see. One thing of note is the lack of Saharan dust we often see in June crossing the Atlantic. WV/TPW imagery clearly shows higher moisture content and suggests that we may see a bit sooner start to Cape Verde season, if that does not change in the days and weeks ahead and may well be a harbinger of things to come.

Again in LaLa land, and delayed so it remains almost two weeks out, but the GFS remains persistent in bringing a system into the Gulf. And 0Z GFS ensembles suggest a pattern, if anything reached/developed in the Western Caribbean, a large area of the Gulf would be potentially exposed.

Whether something would exist to be steered into the Gulf, well, that is far from certain.

[Srain]

[Srain]

A fairly strong tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic has gained some separation from the ITCZ. Upper winds look hostile for the next few days, but may relax a bit as the axis approaches the Windward Islands. MIMIC is showing this feature and the increased moisture spreading W bound. The lack of Saharan dust is still evident on WV/TPW imagery and the 06Z GFS is sniffing a bit of spin as well...

[Ed Lizard]

While it is early in the Atlantic season and nothing appears imminent, I wanted to ask about something I have been thinking about before. The max potential plots from wxmaps.org apparently developed by Dr. Emmanuel at MIT.

I realize they are max potential maps, and it would take perfect conditions for a storm to approach its maximum potential, but I just feel the max potential itself is unrealistically high. The best example I could find today was the East Pac, where Hawaii, while well North of the 26.5ºC SST isotherm, is depicted as having a max potential of Category 3 to Category 4.

I know later in the season a Cat 4 is certainly possible, thinking Iniki in September 1992, but somehow I can't see atmospheric conditions so perfect for a Cat 4 now in Hawaii.

Again, Pacific images, but because the apparent unrealistic nature of the maximum potential seems so apparent in this basin.

[phil882]

While it is early in the Atlantic season and nothing appears imminent, I wanted to ask about something I have been thinking about before. The max potential plots from wxmaps.org apparently developed by Dr. Emmanuel at MIT.

I realize they are max potential maps, and it would take perfect conditions for a storm to approach its maximum potential, but I just feel the max potential itself is unrealistically high. The best example I could find today was the East Pac, where Hawaii, while well North of the 26.5ºC SST isotherm, is depicted as having a max potential of Category 3 to Category 4.

I know later in the season a Cat 4 is certainly possible, thinking Iniki in September 1992, but somehow I can't see atmospheric conditions so perfect for a Cat 4 now in Hawaii.

Again, Pacific images, but because the apparent unrealistic nature of the maximum potential seems so apparent in this basin.

I don't understand why you didn't post this in the East Pacific thread, since it seems to be East Pacific focused. Perhaps a mod can move this post and my response?

In any event, the information you need to see how these calculations are done are available here

There is a reason why they are called "max" potential maps. This is pretty much the extreme high end senerio that can be expected of a tropical cyclone at that sea surface temperature. This graph below shows a least squares function fit from observed max tropical cyclone intensities observed at a particular sea surface temperature. This is the more empirical methods of identifying the MPI of a particular SST value.

[bronxx]

Dr. Emmanuel of MIT is a good source at times; but I also believe he was the one that proposed covering hundreds of square miles of ocean under a hurricane with a polymer or oil based coating in order to cut off the energy source from a hurricane. Now that is just Ivory Tower dreaming in the 100% laboratory environment that does not exist in reality. (40+ foot waves.)

---

From June thru Nov. there is almost always a tropical wave every 20 degrees of longitude or so propagating across the tropical Atlantic. Some have a cloud signature, others don't. Generally, any of those waves reaching an area of optimal conditions can suddenly initiate genesis of a tropical cyclone.

[Ed Lizard]

I don't understand why you didn't post this in the East Pacific thread, since it seems to be East Pacific focused. Perhaps a mod can move this post and my response?

In any event, the information you need to see how these calculations are done are available here

There is a reason why they are called "max" potential maps. This is pretty much the extreme high end senerio that can be expected of a tropical cyclone at that sea surface temperature. This graph below shows a least squares function fit from observed max tropical cyclone intensities observed at a particular sea surface temperature. This is the more empirical methods of identifying the MPI of a particular SST value.

Because it isn't basin specific, just most noticeable where a map shows Cat 3/4 winds over waters around 23 to 24ºC. I understand the concept of max potential, as I made quite clear in the original post. (And I read the same link you just posted before posting. It can be reached from the wxmaps.org max pot page). BTW, your plot seems to suggest those SSTs would barely support a low end Cat 2. I'd also argue over waters much below 26ºC near surface stability would mean a greater reduction in surface wind speeds for a given pressure.

Mods can move this if they want, but I was asking if the max potential maps may show an unrealistically high maximum potential. Again, not basin specific, so I put it in the tropical forum that gets the most views and doesn't have a current cyclone or incipient cyclone in it.

I also wonder about your plot. There is empirical evidence showing high end (almost Cat 1) tropical storms over waters cooler than 60ºF?

I assume that plot is for steady state, I fully understand the concept of a storm of significant magnitude bringing conditions stronger than what SSTs would support if it is moving rapidly from warmer to cooler waters and thus hasn't had time for significant weakening.

[phil882]

Because it isn't basin specific, just most noticeable where a map shows Cat 3/4 winds over waters around 23 to 24ºC. I understand the concept of max potential, as I made quite clear in the original post. (And I read the same link you just posted before posting. It can be reached from the wxmaps.org max pot page). BTW, your plot seems to suggest those SSTs would barely support a low end Cat 2. I'd also argue over waters much below 26ºC near surface stability would mean a greater reduction in surface wind speeds for a given pressure.

Mods can move this if they want, but I was asking if the max potential maps may show an unrealistically high maximum potential. Again, not basin specific, so I put it in the tropical forum that gets the most views and doesn't have a current cyclone or incipient cyclone in it.

I also wonder about your plot. There is empirical evidence showing high end (almost Cat 1) tropical storms over waters cooler than 60ºF?

I assume that plot is for steady state, I fully understand the concept of a storm of significant magnitude bringing conditions stronger than what SSTs would support if it is moving rapidly from warmer to cooler waters and thus hasn't had time for significant weakening.

The plot is from a peer reviewed article in The Journal Of Climate Where Mark Demaria, John Kaplan developed an empirical relationship between SST and MPI of a tropical cyclone. I think you are right in that there are a lot of tropical cyclones that moved out of a warmer SST environment but haven't fully weakened, creating inflated intensities over SST that ordinarily do not support such an intense tropical cyclone.

Going back to Emanuel's work though, hes not only taking into account SST, but also environmental conditions from the latest model run. Its also a calculation and not based on empirical evidence like the plot I showed you. It does seem like the MPI of tropical cyclones in 23-24 degree water is rather high though.

[CUmet]

Dr. Emmanuel of MIT is a good source at times; but I also believe he was the one that proposed covering hundreds of square miles of ocean under a hurricane with a polymer or oil based coating in order to cut off the energy source from a hurricane. Now that is just Ivory Tower dreaming in the 100% laboratory environment that does not exist in reality. (40+ foot waves.)

Kerry Emanuel has NEVER been an advocate of this. He has performed model simulations of the scenario you described, and found that there really isn't any change because the ocean mixing is so strong under a hurricane.

[bronxx]

Kerry Emanuel has NEVER been an advocate of this. He has performed model simulations of the scenario you described, and found that there really isn't any change because the ocean mixing is so strong under a hurricane.

It is funny that I have associated his name with the oil-slick theory since an article appeared in a Miami newspaper talking about that slick approach several years ago. His name was mentioned probably something like this under a picture: "K. Emanuel conducts experiment on the feasibility of polymer reducing power of hurricanes." The headline to the article read something like: "MIT professor conducts experiments on hurricane modification." The article was probably ambiguous about who came up with the idea in the first place. Either I didn't read the article completely through, or the writer of the article was not complete in his presentation of who said what. I could have just been lazy or simply breezing through that day's paper, and went away only with the impression the headline and picture caption presented.

It seemed odd to me as I have seen several of his papers and presentations live and he and those papers seemed much more down to earth.

Doing a quick search now I see that he disputed the idea, for the very and obvious reason I eluded to in my post: dispersion of the slick by the turbulent ocean under a hurricane. One entry contains the following:

Alexandre Chorin of the University of California, Berkeley proposed dropping large amounts of environmentally friendly oils on the sea surface to prevent droplet formation.^[10] Experiments by Kerry Emanuel^[11] of MIT in 2002 suggested that hurricane-force winds would disrupt the oil slick, making it ineffective.^[12]

So, my apologies to Mr. Emanuel for misinterpreting the who and why of the oil-slick approach to hurricane modification.