rainstorm Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 It looks like rainstorm will need to worry about something else. That W Atlantic low is becoming a memory only to be replaced by a strengthening Bermuda High... we can only hope that occurs. its been a really long time since a west atlantic ridge locked in and stayed locked during cane season. the last several cane seasons we have had a bermuda low, not high. i hope this isnt just a pause between troughs and its a real pattern reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 It looks like rainstorm will need to worry about something else. That W Atlantic low is becoming a memory only to be replaced by a strengthening Bermuda High... Maybe its because I have a Charley fetish, but anyway, while its early in the season, that sure does look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 An MJO wave will move thru the basin around the 20th or so, according to the models. Not sure about the strength of the wave, but around that date would be my guess for possible cyclogenesis. You referring to the UK and Brazil solutions? The ECMWF and GFS don't agree. The speed in which the waves have been coming lately, I can see why you would say June 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 You referring to the UK and Brazil solutions? The ECMWF and GFS don't agree. The speed in which the waves have been coming lately, I can see why you would say June 20th. So when do you think our first really favorable upward motion will reach the Caribbean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 You referring to the UK and Brazil solutions? The ECMWF and GFS don't agree. The speed in which the waves have been coming lately, I can see why you would say June 20th. I've noticed the really fast phase speed as well... are the wavelengths shorter than usual or is it something else I am missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 You referring to the UK and Brazil solutions? The ECMWF and GFS don't agree. The speed in which the waves have been coming lately, I can see why you would say June 20th. Mainly the UK ... I just saw the Euro and see it doesn't agree... I have seen that the GFS is inferior to the UKie most of the time. I have never seen the Brazil's forecasts, any good? WRT the speed of the waves, yeah, I have noted that the last few cycles aren't the classical 40 days return period, that's why I gave the Ukie a bit more of credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I've noticed the really fast phase speed as well... are the wavelengths shorter than usual or is it something else I am missing? When you say shorter wavelengths, are you referring to the Mid Latitude jet streams (in either hemisphere)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Mainly the UK ... I just saw the Euro and see it doesn't agree... I have seen that the GFS is inferior to the UKie most of the time. I have never seen the Brazil's forecasts, any good? WRT the speed of the waves, yeah, I have noted that the last few cycles aren't the classical 40 days return period, that's why I gave the Ukie a bit more of credence. Agreed that the GFS sucks. The Brazil forecast is the CPTC forecast and I'm not quite sure if it is more accurate than the UK. My guess is the faster speeds are due to the stratospheric setup I was talking about in the ENSO thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 When you say shorter wavelengths, are you referring to the Mid Latitude jet streams (in either hemisphere)? Nope, but that was because I forgot what the phase speed was for Kelvin waves (which may not be a correct assumption anyway - most of the literature compares the MJO to Kelvin waves despite the shallow water equations not predicting its existence). For those of you keeping score at home, the phase speed of a Kelvin wave is (gH)^.5. If that is the case, does that imply that the phase speed is faster because the total column is warmer? And is that related to your cold stratosphere hypothesis? EDIT: Oh. My guess is the faster speeds are due to the stratospheric setup I was talking about in the ENSO thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 we can only hope that occurs. its been a really long time since a west atlantic ridge locked in and stayed locked during cane season. the last several cane seasons we have had a bermuda low, not high. i hope this isnt just a pause between troughs and its a real pattern reversal. The 1950's where east coast and 1960's more gulf coast. The 1990's more east coast, while again the 2000's where more gulf again. Repeat again and again. The 2010's could be east coast??? Maybe there is a long term pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Last few runs of the Euro shows some disturbed weather moving across the Caribbean in the very long range. GFS extended even further keeps showing some potential across the W Caribbean and into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 240 Euro looks like typical early Summer, strong low level Easterlies in the Caribbean, meaning low level divergence and increased shear, ie, why the Central Caribbean is usually hostile early in the season. Its normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Not there yet buddy... It's only June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Not there yet buddy... It's only June. That could be the wave the Euro takes towards the Caribbean in 8 days. Euro looks pretty hostile for anything to develop in most of the Caribbean, but that could wind up being Beatriz or Calvin in about 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That could be the wave the Euro takes towards the Caribbean in 8 days. Euro looks pretty hostile for anything to develop in most of the Caribbean, but that could wind up being Beatriz or Calvin in about 2 weeks. The 12Z GFS is sniffing this as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 In other news... maybe the NAM isn't so crazy after all... the latest 12z GFS is jumping on board having a semi-tropical system off the eastern seaboard in what evolves from ex 94L in the next couple of days? Whatever occurs, its looks like it will be highly sheared, and I'm getting the impression that we will be dealing with a hybrid type system, since there will be some interaction between the TUTT and the tropical disturbance. The gfs shows this with a very large radius of max winds indicating that whatever we are dealing with won't be fully tropical in nature. 50 knots winds aloft though certainly don't look favorable for fully tropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 In other news... maybe the NAM isn't so crazy after all... the latest 12z GFS is jumping on board having a semi-tropical system off the eastern seaboard in what evolves from ex 94L in the next couple of days? Whatever occurs, its looks like it will be highly sheared, and I'm getting the impression that we will be dealing with a hybrid type system, since there will be some interaction between the TUTT and the tropical disturbance. The gfs shows this with a very large radius of max winds indicating that whatever we are dealing with won't be fully tropical in nature. 50 knots winds aloft though certainly don't look favorable for fully tropical development. So, the upgrades to the NAM model means its ok for tropical use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Ugh... "Semi-tropical", "Eastern Seaboard", "hybrid", "large RMW"... All my favorite buzzwords. Sounds like complete crap to me. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Ugh... "Semi-tropical", "Eastern Seaboard", "hybrid", "large RMW"... All my favorite buzzwords. Sounds like complete crap to me. Next! Its June. Stay calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 im hoping for an injection of tropical moisture into our stalled front. i want some flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 im hoping for an injection of tropical moisture into our stalled front. i want some flooding. I can't be there, but I want the first AmWx conference to be the most memorable ever, with an early season CV Bertha storm, preferablly travelling up the West side of the Chesapeake. And I want Josh and the MA people's to have deep discussions as to whether Hurricane Arlene or Bret is still a purely tropical cyclone as the lights go out in the hotel, and everyone sings old spiritual songs by candlelight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 im hoping for an injection of tropical moisture into our stalled front. i want some flooding. me too, except I don't have a stalled front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Hybrid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That's bad news for hurricane lovers....shear and upwelling due to the LLJ in the Caribbean...though it's expected at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That's bad news for hurricane lovers....shear and upwelling due to the LLJ in the Caribbean...though it's expected at this point in the season. Ed says it's only June and to remain calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Ed says it's only June and to remain calm. Hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That's bad news for hurricane lovers....shear and upwelling due to the LLJ in the Caribbean...though it's expected at this point in the season. Yup. 240 Euro looks like typical early Summer, strong low level Easterlies in the Caribbean, meaning low level divergence and increased shear, ie, why the Central Caribbean is usually hostile early in the season. Its normal. Back when I used to read JB, and it seems logical, near time of max insolation, the South American landmass warms up faster than the surrounding water and produced a heat low, with Easterlies North of it. I believe it was the reason for the John Hope Rule, not 100% reliable, but usually pretty good, especially before late August, if a system isn't already a TD before crossing the Lesser Antilles, it won't become a TD until it reaches the Western Caribbean. In 2003, Claudette almost died crossing that part of the Caribbean, before making something of a comeback in the Gulf. Obviously, strong systems passing the islands don't follow the John Hope Rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Verbatim, that is a Texas/New Mexico thread item showing an improved chance of rain towards weekend after next. But its June, and I am an optimist by nature. Since the Euro has been semi-lame this year, even with my natural eternal optimism, I can only go Glass 1/8th full on meaningful rain with the potential Euro system. The happy news, the GFS ensembles at Hour 240 show a weakness in the ridge in the general vicinity the Euro does, and with fairly good member agreement. And the Gulf is warm enough, maybe a surface reflection will develop. looks like the east coast trough is going to get even stronger. anyone have any idea when dt, and jb's west atlantic ridge will finally form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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