Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Dry air comment vindication... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106031758 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END AL, 94, 2011060318, , BEST, 0, 160N, 780W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Ehhh was this discussion from last hurricane season ?!!? lol LOL...what an annoying time it was! In no way can a forecast that suggested below normal named storms be verified as "good" because most missed land. And then to say that the reasoning is due to wind shear in the spring meaning more wind shear in the ASO period. What a horrible time. I think last year when we had like, what, 4 awesome hurricanes in a row was so awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I bet we see the NHC put 94L at Orange 30% at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURELOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOWSIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLYCONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODINGAND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ASTHE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEANSEA.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAINNNNN --------------------------------- The S2K thread on Wilma is so awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Learn to use the private message system. We expect an active season and OT conversations won't be tolerated. Hello Kush. I deleted my earlier reply because it was unfairly harsh. Had your post been a bit less condescending and scolding, it would have been better taken; especially from one who is not a moderator. And speaking of moderators...I know you're interested in being one; an idea I would, believe it or not, support - because at least you would actually do something. Good luck; and I hope you have a blast this hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 All sorts of banding forming around this thing tonight. The inhibiting factors are the mountains of Jamaica and Hispaniola which are disrupting the broad circulation a bit, and that dry air on the west side may be materializing based on infrared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Slackers. How could you guys live w/ yourselves if you let this thread reach the 2nd page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I know this is an esoteric whine, but I'm pretty irritated that CPC hasn't updated any of their tropical wave products since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 This: Does not agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Does not agree with this. Do you prefer the time/longitude graphics where time increases as y increases? I don't know if it is by habit from all these years of looking at them, but I'd rather look at time increasing as y is decreasing to see the easterly waves. But, I can see the benefit of looking at it the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Do you prefer the time/longitude graphics where time increases as y increases? I don't know if it is by habit from all these years of looking at them, but I'd rather look at time increasing as y is decreasing to see the easterly waves. But, I can see the benefit of looking at it the other way. I don't really have a preference either way, but I think it's because I've been looking at the Roundy stuff for so long. I'm just used to checking the axes now. P.S. That image I linked to is a new "experimental" algorithm from Dr. Roundy that explains more of the total OLR variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I don't really have a preference either way, but I think it's because I've been looking at the Roundy stuff for so long. I'm just used to checking the axes now. P.S. That image I linked to is a new "experimental" algorithm from Dr. Roundy that explains more of the total OLR variance. Well, the image is cool more in the sense of Roundy plotting out the MJO waves. I wouldn't call this type of image new per se (there are similar images elsewhere) although it certainly has a different look. To me, that image is just too busy with the kw/rw lines being so small and the MJO lines so bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Well, the image is cool more in the sense of Roundy plotting out the MJO waves. I wouldn't call this type of image new per se (there are similar images elsewhere) although it certainly has a different look. To me, that image is just too busy with the kw/rw lines being so small and the MJO lines so bold. The old way he was plotting it involved propagating the EOF signals from Roundy and Schreck (2009). I've not seen the manuscript that describes the "new" process. That's what I meant by "new," not that the graphical format was new. Sorry for the miscommunication. Here is the link to his full website, if you haven't seen it: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The old way he was plotting it involved propagating the EOF signals from Roundy and Schreck (2009). I've not seen the manuscript that describes the "new" process. That's what I meant by "new," not that the graphical format was new. Sorry for the miscommunication. Here is the link to his full website, if you haven't seen it: http://www.atmos.alb...f/roundy/waves/ Oh okay, cool...thanks. I agree with that MJO forecast, by the way, for the end of June into early July. Active July this year in the Atlantic? Last year sure looked that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 This: Does not agree with this. My interpretation is that the Kelvin wave is dominating the signal over the Atlantic, but the MJO is indeed still in the Indian Ocean, so I don't think they disagree per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I agree with that MJO forecast, by the way, for the end of June into early July. Active July this year in the Atlantic? Last year sure looked that way. I've been tracking his MJO forecasts for the last year and I find them to be much more accurate than the Phase Space forecasts. This "new" method has only been out for a week, so I'm not sure how much, if any, improvement there will be. I assume you are basing your MJO forecast off of something more than statistical or dynamical model forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I've been tracking his MJO forecasts for the last year and I find them to be much more accurate than the Phase Space forecasts. This "new" method has only been out for a week, so I'm not sure how much, if any, improvement there will be. I assume you are basing your MJO forecast off of something more than statistical or dynamical model forecasts? Yeah, it is hard to top Paul Roundy in this department. He should post here... My MJO forecasts are usually made in the spring/autumn for the summer/winter and are based on a collection of things. I usually map out how I think the waves and their harmonics will behave/propagate throughout the targeted season. So, yeah, statistical and dynamical data is fine to a certain degree but is generally useless in the time ranges I'm interested in anyway. This is also how I made my long range hurricane calls in the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 My MJO forecasts are usually made in the spring/autumn for the summer/winter and are based on a collection of things. I usually map out how I think the waves and their harmonics will behave/propagate throughout the targeted season. So, yeah, statistical and dynamical data is fine to a certain degree but is generally useless in the time ranges I'm interested in anyway. This is also how I made my long range hurricane calls in the last couple of years. Gotcha. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Probably noise but it's early enough in the season and nothing is going on. Long range GFS has been getting frisky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Interesting little feature near Puerto Rico this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 tisk tisk... you know better than to be posting the GFS beyond 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 tisk tisk... you know better than to be posting the GFS beyond 120 hours But..but.. LC would be right after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Probably noise but it's early enough in the season and nothing is going on. Long range GFS has been getting frisky. Omg. Get help. Interesting little feature near Puerto Rico this morning Wow-- kinda cool. What is that? Perv-- posting pics like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Interesting little feature near Puerto Rico this morning Wow-- kinda cool. What is that? It's been in the models for days now. Remember a few pages ago when I talked about gyres spitting off TCs. If this was the WPAC that's what I think would happen to that low. As it is, it's going to slide north of the islands and close off tomorrow, then get sheared apart by the STJ by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 It's been in the models for days now. Remember a few pages ago when I talked about gyres spitting off TCs. If this was the WPAC that's what I think would happen to that low. As it is, it's going to slide north of the islands and close off tomorrow, then get sheared apart by the STJ by Friday. Ah, yes, I do remember that. Too bad it'll get shredded so fast-- it looks kind of cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 One point concerning the la la land GFS, MIMIC suggests the "Carla Cradle" will remain sort of interesting in the days ahead as shear relaxes and what ever is left of 94L finally evacuates the W Caribbean. Climo suggests that area would be one area to watch, so I guess it's not totally out of the realm of possibilities to see something spin up in that area as long as we have a monsoonal trough lingering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 An MJO wave will move thru the basin around the 20th or so, according to the models. Not sure about the strength of the wave, but around that date would be my guess for possible cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 It looks like rainstorm will need to worry about something else. That W Atlantic low is becoming a memory only to be replaced by a strengthening Bermuda High... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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