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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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Dry air comment vindication...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS BECOME A

LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE

DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING

DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH

FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

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Ehhh was this discussion from last hurricane season ?!!? lol

LOL...what an annoying time it was! In no way can a forecast that suggested below normal named storms be verified as "good" because most missed land. And then to say that the reasoning is due to wind shear in the spring meaning more wind shear in the ASO period. What a horrible time.

I think last year when we had like, what, 4 awesome hurricanes in a row was so awesome.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURELOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOWSIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLYCONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODINGAND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ASTHE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEANSEA.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAINNNNN

---------------------------------

The S2K thread on Wilma is so awesome.

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Learn to use the private message system. We expect an active season and OT conversations won't be tolerated.

Hello Kush. I deleted my earlier reply because it was unfairly harsh. Had your post been a bit less condescending and scolding, it would have been better taken; especially from one who is not a moderator.

And speaking of moderators...I know you're interested in being one; an idea I would, believe it or not, support - because at least you would actually do something.

Good luck; and I hope you have a blast this hurricane season.

:pimp:

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Does not agree with this.

Do you prefer the time/longitude graphics where time increases as y increases? I don't know if it is by habit from all these years of looking at them, but I'd rather look at time increasing as y is decreasing to see the easterly waves. But, I can see the benefit of looking at it the other way.

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Do you prefer the time/longitude graphics where time increases as y increases? I don't know if it is by habit from all these years of looking at them, but I'd rather look at time increasing as y is decreasing to see the easterly waves. But, I can see the benefit of looking at it the other way.

I don't really have a preference either way, but I think it's because I've been looking at the Roundy stuff for so long. I'm just used to checking the axes now.

P.S. That image I linked to is a new "experimental" algorithm from Dr. Roundy that explains more of the total OLR variance.

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I don't really have a preference either way, but I think it's because I've been looking at the Roundy stuff for so long. I'm just used to checking the axes now.

P.S. That image I linked to is a new "experimental" algorithm from Dr. Roundy that explains more of the total OLR variance.

Well, the image is cool more in the sense of Roundy plotting out the MJO waves. I wouldn't call this type of image new per se (there are similar images elsewhere) although it certainly has a different look. To me, that image is just too busy with the kw/rw lines being so small and the MJO lines so bold.

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Well, the image is cool more in the sense of Roundy plotting out the MJO waves. I wouldn't call this type of image new per se (there are similar images elsewhere) although it certainly has a different look. To me, that image is just too busy with the kw/rw lines being so small and the MJO lines so bold.

The old way he was plotting it involved propagating the EOF signals from Roundy and Schreck (2009). I've not seen the manuscript that describes the "new" process. That's what I meant by "new," not that the graphical format was new. Sorry for the miscommunication.

Here is the link to his full website, if you haven't seen it: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/

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The old way he was plotting it involved propagating the EOF signals from Roundy and Schreck (2009). I've not seen the manuscript that describes the "new" process. That's what I meant by "new," not that the graphical format was new. Sorry for the miscommunication.

Here is the link to his full website, if you haven't seen it: http://www.atmos.alb...f/roundy/waves/

Oh okay, cool...thanks.

I agree with that MJO forecast, by the way, for the end of June into early July. :thumbsup:

Active July this year in the Atlantic? Last year sure looked that way. :arrowhead:

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This:

Does not agree with this.

My interpretation is that the Kelvin wave is dominating the signal over the Atlantic, but the MJO is indeed still in the Indian Ocean, so I don't think they disagree per se.

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I agree with that MJO forecast, by the way, for the end of June into early July. :thumbsup:

Active July this year in the Atlantic? Last year sure looked that way. :arrowhead:

:devilsmiley:

I've been tracking his MJO forecasts for the last year and I find them to be much more accurate than the Phase Space forecasts. This "new" method has only been out for a week, so I'm not sure how much, if any, improvement there will be.

I assume you are basing your MJO forecast off of something more than statistical or dynamical model forecasts?

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:devilsmiley:

I've been tracking his MJO forecasts for the last year and I find them to be much more accurate than the Phase Space forecasts. This "new" method has only been out for a week, so I'm not sure how much, if any, improvement there will be.

I assume you are basing your MJO forecast off of something more than statistical or dynamical model forecasts?

Yeah, it is hard to top Paul Roundy in this department. He should post here...

My MJO forecasts are usually made in the spring/autumn for the summer/winter and are based on a collection of things. I usually map out how I think the waves and their harmonics will behave/propagate throughout the targeted season. So, yeah, statistical and dynamical data is fine to a certain degree but is generally useless in the time ranges I'm interested in anyway. This is also how I made my long range hurricane calls in the last couple of years.

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My MJO forecasts are usually made in the spring/autumn for the summer/winter and are based on a collection of things. I usually map out how I think the waves and their harmonics will behave/propagate throughout the targeted season. So, yeah, statistical and dynamical data is fine to a certain degree but is generally useless in the time ranges I'm interested in anyway. This is also how I made my long range hurricane calls in the last couple of years.

Gotcha. Thanks!

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Interesting little feature near Puerto Rico this morning

Wow-- kinda cool. What is that?

It's been in the models for days now. Remember a few pages ago when I talked about gyres spitting off TCs. If this was the WPAC that's what I think would happen to that low. As it is, it's going to slide north of the islands and close off tomorrow, then get sheared apart by the STJ by Friday.

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It's been in the models for days now. Remember a few pages ago when I talked about gyres spitting off TCs. If this was the WPAC that's what I think would happen to that low. As it is, it's going to slide north of the islands and close off tomorrow, then get sheared apart by the STJ by Friday.

Ah, yes, I do remember that.

Too bad it'll get shredded so fast-- it looks kind of cool.

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One point concerning the la la land GFS, MIMIC suggests the "Carla Cradle" will remain sort of interesting in the days ahead as shear relaxes and what ever is left of 94L finally evacuates the W Caribbean. Climo suggests that area would be one area to watch, so I guess it's not totally out of the realm of possibilities to see something spin up in that area as long as we have a monsoonal trough lingering.

latest72hrs.gif

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