HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Hopefully a 130kt cyclone will run over your trailer park. Did you get insurance this season? Steve! I'm surprised to see you trolling like that. You be nice, now. P.S. Given rainstorm's location, she doesn't have to worry about anything over 80-90 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Hey, Tony-- what's up? Long time no see. I'm kind of dividing my time between L.A. and Prague. (It's because of work-- when our Europe office gets crazy busy, I come back over to this side.) I've been in Prague all winter and spring, but I'm about to go back to L.A.-- woo hoo! Doing good Josh how you been? ust got back from the beach for Memorial Day weekend with the lady and 2 other couples, had a great time. I love the ocean but still quite chilly around here think the surf temp was 65. Whats the weather like where your at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Doing good Josh how you been? ust got back from the beach for Memorial Day weekend with the lady and 2 other couples, had a great time. I love the ocean but still quite chilly around here think the surf temp was 65. Whats the weather like where your at now? Sounds nice. Where were you-- Ocean City? Or Rehoboth or Bethany, perhaps? The weather here is roughly like it is in the Northeast USA-- so we've been having mostly sunny days with temps in the 70s and 80s. But the cool thing is that the city is very far to the N-- above 50N-- so this time of year it's light out very late into the evening, which is sweet. But don't get me started Re: the winter here. It seriously, seriously sucks-- just grey and dark and very cold. We'll go over a month-- no exaggeration-- without seeing the sun-- just dull grey light from mid-morning to mid-afternoon-- then darkness again. Ugh. P.S. Are you going to the conference or at least stopping by?? You're right there, so I hope you do-- would be cool to meet ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Hopefully a 130kt cyclone will run over your trailer park. Did you get insurance this season? yea i did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Steve! I'm surprised to see you trolling like that. You be nice, now. P.S. Given rainstorm's location, she doesn't have to worry about anything over 80-90 kt. if we get stuck in a neg NAO again i will be paying insurance for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 if we get stuck in a neg NAO again i will be paying insurance for nothing You can't look at it that way. Insurance is for peace of mind; enjoy your peace of mind now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 No, I had enough last year. It was cool scientifically to see something like that form in the Atlantic for the first time (for me anyway). I'm kinda done with this crap now. I think people are quick to forget that just because there is a gyre, that doesn't mean we can't get anything substantial out of it. Sure Nicole last year was a very broad and diffuse system that really never tightened up, but it likely didn't have enough time to feaster to really reach its full potential. Here is perhaps a more famous gyre from 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I think people are quick to forget that just because there is a gyre, that doesn't mean we can't get anything substantial out of it. Sure Nicole last year was a very broad and diffuse system that really never tightened up, but it likely didn't have enough time to feaster to really reach its full potential. Here is perhaps a more famous gyre from 2005. In terms of a true monsoon gyre/low, it's difficult to for anything substantial to come out of it in the Caribbean due to the geographic limitations. Check out Mark Lander's paper from 1994 on how awesome they can be in the West Pac. In the Atlantic, any TCs they might spin off immediately gets affected by land (take a look at some recent GFS runs to see that in action). I'm skeptical of the entire gyre/low turning into anything cool, either, but maybe it's just because I've never seen it in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 I think people are quick to forget that just because there is a gyre, that doesn't mean we can't get anything substantial out of it. Sure Nicole last year was a very broad and diffuse system that really never tightened up, but it likely didn't have enough time to feaster to really reach its full potential. Here is perhaps a more famous gyre from 2005. Interesting. Is that what became Wilma? I remember that the NW Caribbean was festering like a big, nasty rash for a week before spawning that cyclone-- and then it just tightened up and went to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 In terms of a true monsoon gyre/low, it's difficult to for anything substantial to come out of it in the Caribbean due to the geographic limitations. Check out Mark Lander's paper from 1994 on how awesome they can be in the West Pac. In the Atlantic, any TCs they might spin off immediately gets affected by land (take a look at some recent GFS runs to see that in action). I'm skeptical of the entire gyre/low turning into anything cool, either, but maybe it's just because I've never seen it in the Atlantic. Well of course I was attempting to refer to Wilma, which formed from a very broad circulation in the Caribbean. I'm not quite sure if it fits the bill as a true monsoon gyre, but it certainly underwent an atypical development the first few days of its life, as the center contracted quite a bit as favorable upper level winds and warm moist ocean waters fulled its eventual rapid intensification. Still it took 5-7 days from the initial disturbance to evolve into a depression, and another 1.5 days on top of that to make it to a tropical storm when it really started to go to town. These things by nature are slow to develop due to their large scale circulation. My argument is that Nicole could have been something more impressive had it been given more time in the Caribbean and under more favorable upper level winds (the cold front that swept it up into the US was certainly not helping shear wise). Here was the inital TCD on Wilma when it became a depression. Sound familiar? THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THEWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACECIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THECIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULDBE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Interesting. Is that what became Wilma? I remember that the NW Caribbean was festering like a big, nasty rash for a week before spawning that cyclone-- and then it just tightened up and went to town. Yep! It took forever to get going, but since it had ample time in the Caribbean, eventually it became tightly wound, if not the most tightly wound TC in Atlantic Basin history. Thats why I'm not dissing this potential threat... the limiting factors continue to be shear, but it has potential if it can gets its act together with organized convection near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Here was the inital TCD on Wilma when it became a depression. Sound familiar? Wow-- great find! It's amazing that that crap spun up into a 160-kt cyclone with one of the hawtest, tightest cores ever: 2-nmi eye and a 64-kt radius of 15 nmi. This gives me hope Re; future slopgyres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Well of course I was attempting to refer to Wilma, which formed from a very broad circulation in the Caribbean. I'm not quite sure if it fits the bill as a monsoon gyre, but it certainly underwent an atypical development the first few days of its life, as the center contracted quite a bit as favorable upper level winds and warm moist ocean waters fulled its eventual rapid intensification. Still it took 5-7 days from the initial disturbance to evolve into a depression, and another 1.5 days on top of that to make it to a tropical storm when it really started to go to town. These things by nature are slow to develop due to their large side circulation. My argument is that Nicole could have been something more impressive had it been given more time in the Caribbean and under more favorable upper level winds (the cold front that swept it up into the US was certainly not helping shear wise). Here is a satellite loop which seems to underlie your point: I'll be honest, I wasn't nearly the tropical watcher then that I am now. Does anyone have any synoptic archives of the pre-Wilma disturbance? That would give a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I think the Caribbean gyre has a decent shot at spinning up at some point over the next few days. Low-level vorticity and convection are really starting to align with each other, and the GFS seems to indicate this isn't going to go away for awhile. This is about where you'd expect a TC this time of yea too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I don't know. GFS and Euro four panels from PSU both show limited moisture on the Western side for about the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Here is a satellite loop which seems to underlie your point: I'll be honest, I wasn't nearly the tropical watcher then that I am now. Does anyone have any synoptic archives of the pre-Wilma disturbance? That would give a better idea. There is a basin satellite archive from 1998 - 2011 on the unisys page. Here are the October 2005 images (taken every 12 hours) You can see the initial disturbance start around the 10th of October, but it isn't until the 15th of October that Wilma finally develops. During this time, the convection spans across most of the Caribbean, with feeder bands reaching into the Pacific Ocean at times. Once again, I'm certainly not sure if this could be considered a classic monsoonal gyre, but it seems to be along the same order of magnitude as the disturbance we are dealing with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I don't know. GFS and Euro four panels from PSU both show limited moisture on the Western side for about the next week. TPW disagrees: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Yeah, I see that happy 50 mm plus area, but for some reason, the reliable globals aren't forecasting that to continue. Time to stop the hugging and look at the overall picture. The morning Caribbean narrative mentions model issues. While nothing is set in stone, MIMIC clearly show a nice surge of deep tropical moisture heading W bound toward the Islands. Also of note, RECON chances still remain on the table... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD) VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z. 3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 TPW disagrees: http://cimss.ssec.wi.../natl/main.html Yes, currently its in an environment of rich moisture, but will this remain the case if it drifts into the dryer Western Caribbean? Honestly, it does look a little better today. The low level circulation is still rather broad, but it seems less disjointed than yesterday since the convection has fired further to the west, while the llc that was observed yesterday seems to have moved further east to meet the convection. We are going to need a lot of tightening up in the next couple of days, but if the upper level winds decrease as expected, we can certainly see a TC out of this. I'm a bit more optimistic that it might actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Time to stop the hugging and look at the overall picture. Steve 2011 has got a sassy new edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'm seriously excited Re: that first Wilma advisory-- it's a great reminder Re: how a super-loose circulation really can tighten up. I wonder if we were dissing Wilma for being all broad and sloppy when it was first named. I'm too lazy to check the Eastern archives. Little did we know what was coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'm seriously excited Re: that first Wilma advisory-- it's a great reminder Re: how a super-loose circulation really can tighten up. I wonder if we were dissing Wilma for being all broad and sloppy when it was first named. I'm too lazy to check the Eastern archives. Little did we know what was coming! I remember we were dissing the GFDL because it insisted on a sub 900mb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'm seriously excited Re: that first Wilma advisory-- it's a great reminder Re: how a super-loose circulation really can tighten up. I wonder if we were dissing Wilma for being all broad and sloppy when it was first named. I'm too lazy to check the Eastern archives. Little did we know what was coming! IIRC most of us were going crazy over the GFDL repeatedly forecasting it to attain cat 5 status with few really taking it for granted. Also the NE weenies were in full force, as a couple model runs showed the famed "snowcane" with a triple phaser threat.... some things really haven't changed . I remember we were dissing the GFDL because it insisted on a sub 900mb storm. haha looks like you beat me to the punch... yea so I guess some delayed kudos tot he GFDL are warranted in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Keep an eye SSW of Jamaica. My hunch is we'll see an invest later today/tomorrow morning if convection continues to fire... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Lots of Wilma threads... gives a good idea of how consolidated/organized tropical threads are a blessing now A few gems: The early good calls That area seems to be developing a broad, low level circulation; the strong convection has been persisting for over 24 hours now. Possible T.D. in the next 24-48? kudos good call...it will be interesting to see if Rainstorm calls for the track which is up into the E GOM then across FL and NE into the Atlantic...called it yesterday. (maybe earlier, haven't looked into it much) The non believers: 120 kts? I'll believe it when I see it buddy. Hi Don, thanks as always for the cool analysis! It was particulary interesting to see such a relatively high-confidence landfall forecast (SW FL, 95 kt) so early in the game. A lot of the models have shifted significantly to the left since yesterday-- although the NHC suggests this may be because they aren't picking up the shortwave trough moving across the Central USA. Does this shift in a lot of the models affect your thinking Re: Wilma's potential USA landfall point? I'm waiting... still isn't named yet... and you still say 120 kts in 4 days? Ha ha ha. :axesmiley: The voices of reason if you read DT's possible snowcane thread... it might be the other way around I wouldn't laugh. I don't think it would get there in the place where he has it reaching that intensity though. If it does it, it will be while in the northwest Caribbean. I think if it ever gets going, which it should, that it has a reasonable shot to get to such an intensity. Remember Mitch? This is an ideal location for big time storms, even this late in the season. Let's wait and see if and when it gets its act together first though. And the short term good call, sorry for the typo and for the belated pat in the back Eye popping out on visible imagery, moving west. RID probably underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Lots of Wilma threads... gives a good idea of how consolidated/organized tropical threads are a blessing now A few gems: The early good calls The non believers: The voices of reason And the short term good call, sorry for the typo and for the belated pat in the back Cool finds! It's amazing how close Don was in his forecast-- calling for a 95-kt landfall in SW FL a full week in advance. And he was only off by 10 kt! P.S. I hardly think I was expressing skepticism-- I was simply asking for details, like I always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Closeup NASA satellite loop I'm still not onboard the Wilma train, but I'm just a hobbyist at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Closeup NASA satellite loop I'm still not onboard the Wilma train, but I'm just a hobbyist at this. What Wilma train? No one is suggesting this will be Wilma-- simply that loose gyres like this can become viable cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 What Wilma train? No one is suggesting this will be Wilma-- simply that loose gyres like this can become viable cyclones. Hurty-hurtz from being called a hugger, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futuremet Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Update on Caribbean Development Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this video are unofficial. Viewers should exclusively use the National Weather Service for life and death decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.