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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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FYP

On the 93L thread I give this a 2.5% chance of officially being declared an (S)TC before Mexico.

So, if a tree falls in the forest, and nobody hears it, it didn't happen. If BOX issues a TorWarn as the tornado is on the ground in West Springfield, only weenies would call it a tornado before the warning.

Off for my annual dental exam. No cavities last year!

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Anyone else thing that the LLC for the system south of Hispaniola has reformed under the deep convection? I definitly think I see a broad circulation taking shape.

Hurricane season is in full force when we begin discussing the location of the Low-level circulation and/or multiple vorticity.

:popcorn:

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Very good model agreement today with virtually all globals slowly lifting a broad low pressure system NNW from the SW Caribbean to very near the Yucatan. Also of note, nice catch by ASCAT depicting a weak LLC E of Nicaragua...

post-32-0-59296300-1307041462.png

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Hurricane season is in full force when we begin discussing the location of the Low-level circulation and/or multiple vorticity.

:popcorn:

There is some decent outflow now even though its still encountering some shear. Even though the cloud tops have cooled somewhat you can see a new burst of colder tops developing.

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Upper-level winds are displacing convection hundreds of miles east of the best low-level convergence. That's gotta stop before we see development of the low-level center.

Interestingly though, infrared imagery indicates a well-defined tropical squall line south of Haiti, and it's already rolling up into a vortex on its northern end. This should lead to a powerful mid-level circulation, which could get to the surface if the convection can maintain itself. That's a big if, since a shift in winds or lack of energy could easily displace/kill the convection, cutting off the vortex.

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Get this crap out of here so we can heat up the waters for something more appreciable during ASO. The good news is: at least we aren't hearing about how the wind shear patterns currently suggest that ASO will have below normal named storms again...:axe:

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Get this crap out of here so we can heat up the waters for something more appreciable during ASO. The good news is: at least we aren't hearing about how the wind shear patterns currently suggest that ASO will have below normal named storms again...:axe:

Agreed. I'd prefer a clean slate to this junk. I want the first cyclone to be an Anita or an Allen or an Andrew-- not some sheared, semitropical crap.

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Get this crap out of here so we can heat up the waters for something more appreciable during ASO. The good news is: at least we aren't hearing about how the wind shear patterns currently suggest that ASO will have below normal named storms again...:axe:

Ehhh was this discussion from last hurricane season ?!!? lol

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Morning lemon update:

* The Gulf thing remains cheap and feeble, and will come ashore on Mainland MX without fanfare.

* The stationary disturbance in the SW Caribbean continues to fester. The NHC has lowered the development probability to 10%-- however, they suggest things could improve after 48 hr. On IR imagery, the good convection seems to be on the E side of the system (if you can even call it that).

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* The stationary disturbance in the SW Caribbean continues to fester. The NHC has lowered the development probability to 10%-- however, they suggest things could improve after 48 hr. On IR imagery, the good convection seems to be on the E side of the system (if you can even call it that).

Slopgyre 2TM

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Pffft. Was anyone expecting an Alex reduex from the Caribbean disturbance anyway? It's June 3rd for Pete sake. Personally, I'm just happy season is here and we'll have several months free from discussions and endless topics from Ji complaining how terrible the winter is or screw zone conversations.:guitar:

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Pffft. Was anyone expecting an Alex reduex from the Caribbean disturbance anyway? It's June 3rd for Pete sake. Personally, I'm just happy season is here and we'll have several months free from discussions and endless topics from Ji complaining how terrible the winter is or screw zone conversations.:guitar:

Didn't you see the LLC trying to reform under the convection yesterday??

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Didn't you see the LLC trying to reform under the convection yesterday??

I've been doing this awhile and certainly saw that mid level spin S of Hispaniola. It happens every year. Then again, perhaps your new responsibilities have already jaded you. After all, why the heck do you think those surface charts are made? Just to keep :weenie:'s in line and corrected.:P

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im not liking the powerful neg NAO that is setting up. reminds me of last season. hopefully this will reverse.

Hopefully a 130kt cyclone will run over your trailer park.;) Did you get insurance this season?

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