turtlehurricane Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Thanks guys, can't wait to scare weenies with my red tag powers during the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011060212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr the strong neg NAO will do its dirty work. without a strong high anchored to the north of the west carib the disturbance will simply get pulled apart to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr the strong neg NAO will do its dirty work. strong high anchored to the north of the west carib the disturbance will simply get pulled slowly to the NNW FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 FYP On the 93L thread I give this a 2.5% chance of officially being declared an (S)TC before Mexico. So, if a tree falls in the forest, and nobody hears it, it didn't happen. If BOX issues a TorWarn as the tornado is on the ground in West Springfield, only weenies would call it a tornado before the warning. Off for my annual dental exam. No cavities last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Anyone else thing that the LLC for the system south of Hispaniola has reformed under the deep convection? I definitly think I see a broad circulation taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Anyone else thing that the LLC for the system south of Hispaniola has reformed under the deep convection? I definitly think I see a broad circulation taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Anyone else thing that the LLC for the system south of Hispaniola has reformed under the deep convection? I definitly think I see a broad circulation taking shape. Hurricane season is in full force when we begin discussing the location of the Low-level circulation and/or multiple vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Very good model agreement today with virtually all globals slowly lifting a broad low pressure system NNW from the SW Caribbean to very near the Yucatan. Also of note, nice catch by ASCAT depicting a weak LLC E of Nicaragua... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Hurricane season is in full force when we begin discussing the location of the Low-level circulation and/or multiple vorticity. There is some decent outflow now even though its still encountering some shear. Even though the cloud tops have cooled somewhat you can see a new burst of colder tops developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 There is some decent outflow now even though its still encountering some shear. Even though the cloud tops have cooled somewhat you can see a new burst of colder tops developing. Yes, indeed. It looks rather intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The 12z EC eventually takes this thing into the gulf in about ten days. Looks to be in a great position under the ridge axis and in a place with plenty of time to get itself together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Upper-level winds are displacing convection hundreds of miles east of the best low-level convergence. That's gotta stop before we see development of the low-level center. Interestingly though, infrared imagery indicates a well-defined tropical squall line south of Haiti, and it's already rolling up into a vortex on its northern end. This should lead to a powerful mid-level circulation, which could get to the surface if the convection can maintain itself. That's a big if, since a shift in winds or lack of energy could easily displace/kill the convection, cutting off the vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futuremet Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Tropical Update discussing 93L and future 94L Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this video are unofficial. Viewers should exclusively use the National Weather Service for life and death decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Get this crap out of here so we can heat up the waters for something more appreciable during ASO. The good news is: at least we aren't hearing about how the wind shear patterns currently suggest that ASO will have below normal named storms again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 That crap south of hispanola screwed up my vacation in the Dominican republic all week!!!! We fly back to Philly tomorrow. Thank god you can still get tan through the clouds here!!! A nice breeze off the Caribbean right now in punta Cana. Already planning a return trip in august!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Get this crap out of here so we can heat up the waters for something more appreciable during ASO. The good news is: at least we aren't hearing about how the wind shear patterns currently suggest that ASO will have below normal named storms again... Agreed. I'd prefer a clean slate to this junk. I want the first cyclone to be an Anita or an Allen or an Andrew-- not some sheared, semitropical crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Agreed. I'd prefer a clean slate to this junk. I want the first cyclone to be an Anita or an Allen or an Andrew-- not some sheared, semitropical crap. Sassy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Agreed. I'd prefer a clean slate to this junk. I want the first cyclone to be an Anita or an Allen or an Andrew-- not some sheared, semitropical crap. In the spirit of the above mentioned, the next TWO MONTHS need to be REAL QUIET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I want a subtropical rainstorm mess in my yard yesterday, actually. Only place that needs undisturbed OHC is around Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Get this crap out of here so we can heat up the waters for something more appreciable during ASO. The good news is: at least we aren't hearing about how the wind shear patterns currently suggest that ASO will have below normal named storms again... Ehhh was this discussion from last hurricane season ?!!? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Sassy!! In the spirit of the above mentioned, the next TWO MONTHS need to be REAL QUIET! Give me quality, or give me death! P.S. A red-meat cyclone like one of those would be worth the wait... kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Morning lemon update: * The Gulf thing remains cheap and feeble, and will come ashore on Mainland MX without fanfare. * The stationary disturbance in the SW Caribbean continues to fester. The NHC has lowered the development probability to 10%-- however, they suggest things could improve after 48 hr. On IR imagery, the good convection seems to be on the E side of the system (if you can even call it that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 * The stationary disturbance in the SW Caribbean continues to fester. The NHC has lowered the development probability to 10%-- however, they suggest things could improve after 48 hr. On IR imagery, the good convection seems to be on the E side of the system (if you can even call it that). Slopgyre 2TM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Slopgyre 2TM Your favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Your favorite. No, I had enough last year. It was cool scientifically to see something like that form in the Atlantic for the first time (for me anyway). I'm kinda done with this crap now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Pffft. Was anyone expecting an Alex reduex from the Caribbean disturbance anyway? It's June 3rd for Pete sake. Personally, I'm just happy season is here and we'll have several months free from discussions and endless topics from Ji complaining how terrible the winter is or screw zone conversations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Pffft. Was anyone expecting an Alex reduex from the Caribbean disturbance anyway? It's June 3rd for Pete sake. Personally, I'm just happy season is here and we'll have several months free from discussions and endless topics from Ji complaining how terrible the winter is or screw zone conversations. Didn't you see the LLC trying to reform under the convection yesterday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 im not liking the powerful neg NAO that is setting up. reminds me of last season. hopefully this will reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Didn't you see the LLC trying to reform under the convection yesterday?? I've been doing this awhile and certainly saw that mid level spin S of Hispaniola. It happens every year. Then again, perhaps your new responsibilities have already jaded you. After all, why the heck do you think those surface charts are made? Just to keep 's in line and corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 im not liking the powerful neg NAO that is setting up. reminds me of last season. hopefully this will reverse. Hopefully a 130kt cyclone will run over your trailer park. Did you get insurance this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.