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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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Had this wave's position been further north, this would have been a great storm. The current and forecast shear for this time of year is extremely low. Once these waves start having more freedom (more latitude), it could be a repeat of last year's onslaught/deluge.

My thoughts exactly. I think the low will get it's feet wet, but is moving too fast at a very low latitude. Maybe a low chance (lemon) from the NHC?

gegmxshr.png

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I have a fetish for extreme heat-- for some reason, it just feels really good to me-- and I'd always wanted to see the geological oddities of the Valley. It would be well over 100 F even after 10 pm, with the sky black and the moon out. It was seriously amazing-- and it was nice not to think about cyclones for a few days!

interesting....ive always wanted to do Death Valley in the summer but figured you had to really know the area and know your limits and i'm not sure i would know how to prepare even. im sure it must be incredible!

i have lots of family who live in the Central Valley so i've been regularly exposed to 105-110......peak temp in their fresno backyard was 114 once.

hottest ive ever experienced was 124 at the big thermometer in Baker on the way to vegas. that was incredible oven.

Death valley certainly fascinates me....the dry summer extreme heat of the SW is certainly an experience.

anyways sorry to sidetrack

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interesting....ive always wanted to do Death Valley in the summer but figured you had to really know the area and know your limits and i'm not sure i would know how to prepare even. im sure it must be incredible!

i have lots of family who live in the Central Valley so i've been regularly exposed to 105-110......peak temp in their fresno backyard was 114 once.

hottest ive ever experienced was 124 at the big thermometer in Baker on the way to vegas. that was incredible oven.

Death valley certainly fascinates me....the dry summer extreme heat of the SW is certainly an experience.

anyways sorry to sidetrack

I highly recommend it. I'm totally f*cked with work right now-- behind in everything-- but I'm hoping tonight to start a thread about my Death Valley trip-- to share some of the details. It turned me into a bit of a geology nerd. :D

Sorry, everyone, for going OT. Back to cyclones...

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18z GFS switches to the ATL basin and in short order too :scooter:

Then moves to the EPAC

Vorticity associated to the TW currently crossing the Yucatan was relocated farther north and west, but weak. I still think it has a chance of at least a lemon designation in the face of <10 kts across a fairly good chunk of the S and W GOM.

The S Nicaragua "Bret" challenges the Josh's axioma of no cyclones can happen in CR or PA

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Hey, dudes--

It's after 12 midnight where I am-- the 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has started!!1!

Woo-hoo!

:sun:B):):thumbsup::)B):sun:

I wonder what yumminess we'll see this year. I have so many fantasies. What are yours? :wub:

Darn, time sure flies when you're having fun! Time for Atlantic Tropical Action - Part III...the red meat of the season awaits...:popcorn:

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GFS develops a nice little system in about 60 to 72 hours. After the recent "teases", Im a bit skeptical.

Especially when it pinches off of a nice monsoon trough (thanks to a westerly burst) in the EPac and fujiwharas with the rest of the monsoon, and then absorbs it... evolution is very complex in a rather short period of time

gfs_85v_036s.gif

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