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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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I don't like this back and forth argumenting about July activity, but I'll be a bit surprised if we don't get at least one or maybe two NS before month's end. Also, 2008 is a decent analog wrt Pacific conditions and trends, though the Atlantic conditions are a lot better for a more explosive ASO period. I'd expect roughly 15-25% more activity (measured by ACE) than 2008. As a matter of fact, we are only behind of (and only by a narrow margin) 2005 and 2010.

2008192at.jpg

2011191at.jpg

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I'm leaning towards the East Pac getting the TC from the monsoon trough, or nobody if it sticks to land for the whole time.

The GFS starting to develop CV waves is a promising sign. It appears that the amplified phase 1-2 MJO the global models have projected for quite some time is finally starting to verify. Although the signal isn't particularly strong, there does appear to be a weak Kelvin wave passing through the Eastern Atlantic around July 15, which may result in enhanced TC genesis probabilities during the July 15-20 time frame.

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If the GFS portrayal of something trying to develop on the end of a front off the Carolinas verifies, but was maybe a hundred miles or so further East or Southeast, I'd be a happy camper.

I know, the tight core snobs will pshaw, but we'd get to 50 pages and start Part 3, and the cool weather afficionadoes could get a taste of real weather.

Oh, tight core Tampico snobs, I noticed this on the Euro for a couple of runs, and now the GFS is suggesting it- a bit of the trough pinching off and rotating to the West, so in the unlikely event something does happen down there, instead of an Arlene/Karl down low track, maybe a Tamaulipas track, dare we hope even a Dolly track with rain for my yard.

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Rather impressive convective activity that has maintained itself E of Nicaragua along a wave axis. Pressures are not that low, but winds are up and certainly looks better than the wave E of the Windward Islands...

post-32-0-37539800-1310403206.jpg

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For what it's worth, the GFDL HiRAM group released their experimental dynamical seasonal forecast last week. Their methodology is the same as in Chen and Lin 2011, which showed a correlation of 0.96 between observed and modeled NATL hurricane counts between 2000-2010. Their numbers for this year, without being specific, were quite high and slightly below the level of what was projected of 2005/2010.

In light of this and other signals, I would say the confidence in 2011 being a substantially above-average year is pretty high and increasing with each passing day.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE

LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED

...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD

ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL

WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THIS SYSTEM

HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY

RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT

MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

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The 10% lemon will soon be encountering 850 mb Easterlies of 20 knots or more.

http://weather.uwyo....r/sounding.html

The 0% lemon has land but the nearest sounding is under 10 knots.

wg8conv.GIF

Checking layer mean wind analysis for shallow systems, the 0% lemon, despite better conditions, looks land bound, while the 10% lemon may eventually enter the more favorable Western Caribbean at a higher latitude where it could be potentially more interesting.

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HPC afternoon update re: EC development...

12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR UNCERTAINTIES TO

THOSE DISPLAYED IN RECENT CYCLES...WITH THE GFS AND TO A LESSER

EXTENT THE CANADIAN...CONTINUING TO GENERATE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAYS

5-7. GIVEN THE RELATIVE SIZE AND DEPTH OF THE LOW...MANY PROCESSES

NEED TO OCCUR FOR THIS SOLUTION TO VERIFY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW

DEVELOPS AND IS SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO SHORE OR POSSIBLY

ONSHORE...HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ITS VICINITY. WILL NEED TO

MONITOR IN THE UPCOMING DAYS...BUT FOR NOW THE EVENT APPEARS TO

CONTAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW PROBABILITY TO WARRANT MINIMAL EMPHASIS.

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For what it's worth, the GFDL HiRAM group released their experimental dynamical seasonal forecast last week. Their methodology is the same as in Chen and Lin 2011, which showed a correlation of 0.96 between observed and modeled NATL hurricane counts between 2000-2010. Their numbers for this year, without being specific, were quite high and slightly below the level of what was projected of 2005/2010.

In light of this and other signals, I would say the confidence in 2011 being a substantially above-average year is pretty high and increasing with each passing day.

http://www.po.gso.uri.edu/Numerical/tropcyc/pubs/WAF_gall_et_al_2011.pdf

http://kiwi.atmos.co...cm/docs/Lin.pdf

Here's some more detail for those interested.

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That tropical wave near the lesser Antilles is likely a goner and only looks to be a TPW enhancer considering the that the upper level westerlies are not likely to abate as the low level easterly flow picks up in the Eastern Caribbean. The disturbance with slightly greater potential is the one that is partially over land along Central America. Both the GFS and ECWMF are showing low level vorticity along the shore in the far southern portion of the Bay of Campeche beyond 24 hours. The environment does looks somewhat conductive for development granted it can get far enough north to be over water for a substantial period of time.

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Still looking like some home brew might be on the table along the SE Coast this week-end.

HPC morning update:

OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A

SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH THE

MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE

SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK

MSLP VALUES...ITS SLOW MOVEMENT WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST

ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY...

ALBEIT WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY...OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING

ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF

THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER MODEL CONTINUITY

AND/OR POTENTIALLY STRONGER SCENARIOS FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

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Still looking like some home brew might be on the table along the SE Coast this week-end.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...&fcast=Loop+All

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It has some ensemble support. Maybe the path won't be so straight forward back inland with a piece of the trough pinching off as the trough lifts out. Maybe it'll drift SW towards Florida or Georgia, which would be a happy thing. Been some fires in the swamps. A lot of maybes...

southeast_dm.png

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It has some ensemble support. Maybe the path won't be so straight forward back inland with a piece of the trough pinching off as the trough lifts out. Maybe it'll drift SW towards Florida or Georgia, which would be a happy thing. Been some fires in the swamps. A lot of maybes...

southeast_dm.png

Yes thank you! This okefenokee swamp( Aka honey prarie complex fire) fire has been here forever feels like. Smoke here every night and afternoon here. 2 days ago it was so thick you couldnt even see down the road. Just hope we get some rain. Its been forecasted here for a week but not a drop here.

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Yes thank you! This okefenokee swamp( Aka honey prarie complex fire) fire has been here forever feels like. Smoke here every night and afternoon here. 2 days ago it was so thick you couldnt even see down the road. Just hope we get some rain. Its been forecasted here for a week but not a drop here.

GFS tries, but it is too close to land to really get going. Not all gloom & doom, however...

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The Caribbean low is hauling ass, and it's already past the hour 6 depiction from the 12Z GFS. If you look at the vis loop you can see a well defined turning around the MX/BZ/GT tri-country border. It won't matter much, anyways.

Had this wave's position been further north, this would have been a great storm. The current and forecast shear for this time of year is extremely low. Once these waves start having more freedom (more latitude), it could be a repeat of last year's onslaught/deluge.

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what the hell were you doing in Death Valley at this time of year????

endurance testing for the (less dangerous) chase season?

I have a fetish for extreme heat-- for some reason, it just feels really good to me-- and I'd always wanted to see the geological oddities of the Valley. It would be well over 100 F even after 10 pm, with the sky black and the moon out. It was seriously amazing-- and it was nice not to think about cyclones for a few days!

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Had this wave's position been further north, this would have been a great storm. The current and forecast shear for this time of year is extremely low. Once these waves start having more freedom (more latitude), it could be a repeat of last year's onslaught/deluge.

I agree. ASO are going to be a wild ride if things play out as expected...:scooter:

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Had this wave's position been further north, this would have been a great storm. The current and forecast shear for this time of year is extremely low. Once these waves start having more freedom (more latitude), it could be a repeat of last year's onslaught/deluge.

Grrrr. What a bummer to read this. I love the low-runners-- but of course not this low.

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Grrrr. What a bummer to read this. I love the low-runners-- but of course not this low.

I suppose it's a bummer for the time being but I just can't get over the shear. It is virtually a non-issue and that is unprecedented for this time of year. These easterly waves have been awesome so far.

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I suppose it's a bummer for the time being but I just can't get over the shear. It is virtually a non-issue and that is unprecedented for this time of year. These easterly waves have been awesome so far.

Between this opinion from one of the most respected pro-mets on the forum, and the updated forecast from a private energy related weather firm where our local KHOU-TV 11 forum pro-met works, which isn't backing down at all from an active season, I am glass 3/4s full optimistic for the best Josh video yet, preferably from South Florida, or, dare I dream, Nassau, Kings or Queens counties in New York.

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