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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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July was probably the most anomolous month of the 2005 season. We probably won't see another July like that in our lifetime. December was quite strange as well.

The crappy 1997 season had Danny in July. I'm not ignorant of June and July versus ASO. I'm still a touch annoyed, I think Kush was calling me a weenie, but I'll live. Kush likes 1997...

I do wonder if the July with Hurricane Dennis and all wasn't a sign that everything was so hyper-favorable for 2005, the season got started early(and ended late). Also impressive how many big time storms didn't start way out in the MDR. IIRC, Emily was the only 'classic' long tracker to make it to North America.

All I said was we're behind 2008, a lot of people's analog year, for named storms. I added that we're not behind schedule based on NHC climatology just to avoid too many Rainstorm type comments.

I know how to get a one day map from PSU for past dates, ( http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110710201712.gif ), if anyone wants to post late June 2011 versus late June 2008 plots, I'd be a happy camper.

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Back when I subscribed to JB, he had a theory the cooling of land as compared to the water (and the water does lag by several weeks) helps. Besides higher pressures from the North, the compatively low pressure over South Amemrica as compared to the Caribbean due to land heating (JB even had some self created index between Jamaica and some station in Venezuela or Colombia) weakens in August and September, making the Caribbean less hostile due to weaker low level Easterlies.

About 'trolling' and Steve, he just seems a tad too enthusiastic this season. Another reason I'm not going all 'Rainstorm' yet, ImpactWeather, a local met firm heavy into energy/offshore drilling operations forecasting, isn't backing down on their numbers.

1) Those JB theories are verrrrry interesting to say the least. The thing I like most about him is his ability to think outside the box.

2) Rumor has it that Rainstorm may surprise us all and go for several U.S. 'cane hits this season. I read that somewhere. Of course, that isn't yet the official RS forecast. So don't go off celebrating just yet. By the way, if this were to occur, the official meaning of "going all Rainstorm" would possibly need to be modified and/or it may no longer be as useful a phrase for the wx hobbyist community.

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1) Those JB theories are verrrrry interesting to say the least. The thing I like most about him is his ability to think outside the box.

2) Rumor has it that Rainstorm may surprise us all and go for several U.S. 'cane hits this season. I read that somewhere. Of course, that isn't yet the official RS forecast. So don't go off celebrating just yet. By the way, if this were to occur, the official meaning of "going all Rainstorm" would possibly need to be modified and/or it may no longer be as useful a phrase for the wx hobbyist community.

Yeah rumor has it she is member of the Edgar Cayce Institute in va beach arrowheadsmiley.png

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Yeah rumor has it she is member of the Edgar Cayce Institute in va beach arrowheadsmiley.png

All this would be very surprising as rainstorm don't think a damn thing is going to hit the US this year, and that surely would explain why she was able to predict no land falling hurricanes last year- even through it was one of the more active seasons in history. pretty freaking good I'd say. It's called winning my friends!:thumbsup:

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All this would be very surprising as rainstorm don't think a damn thing is going to hit the US this year, and that surely would explain why she was able to predict no land falling hurricanes last year- even through it was one of the more active seasons in history. pretty freaking good I'd say. It's called winning my friends!:thumbsup:

Yep, this is a textbook def. of winning. Rainstorm's greatest tropical season forecasts had to have been 2006 followed by 2010. Anyone disagree?

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Yep, this is a textbook def. of winning. Rainstorm's greatest tropical season forecasts had to have been 2006 followed by 2010. Anyone disagree?

Everyone was screaming about 2006 was going to be this huge season and boom nino forms--- rainstorm calls it before anyone could imagine it. 2010 was even bigger being it was such a active season and to have nothing above a 40 knot tropical storm hit the US---is a win. Say what you went about number of cyclones, but rainstorm was still right in both cases. In 2006 with numbers and in 2010 with track and no hurricanes in such a powerful season.

rainstorm is one of the best seasonal forecaster that don't have a degree in the world as far as I'm concern. Some are welcome to think that her methodhoods are non-tech and don't meet meteorology rigor, but rainstorms way still works. HM can disagree as he lives and dies by a defined set of rules, but rainstorm don't. Doesn't mean it is not WINNING.

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Everyone was screaming about 2006 was going to be this huge season and boom nino forms--- rainstorm calls it before anyone could imagine it. 2010 was even bigger being it was such a active season and to have nothing above a 40 knot tropical storm hit the US---is a win. Say what you went about number of cyclones, but rainstorm was still right in both cases. In 2006 with numbers and in 2010 with track and no hurricanes in such a powerful season.

rainstorm is one of the best seasonal forecaster that don't have a degree in the world as far as I'm concern. Some are welcome to think that her methodhoods are non-tech and don't meet meteorology rigor, but rainstorms way still works. HM can disagree as he lives and dies by a defined set of rules, but rainstorm don't. Doesn't mean it is not WINNING.

You need an English class.

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Everyone was screaming about 2006 was going to be this huge season and boom nino forms--- rainstorm calls it before anyone could imagine it. 2010 was even bigger being it was such a active season and to have nothing above a 40 knot tropical storm hit the US---is a win. Say what you went about number of cyclones, but rainstorm was still right in both cases. In 2006 with numbers and in 2010 with track and no hurricanes in such a powerful season.

rainstorm is one of the best seasonal forecaster that don't have a degree in the world as far as I'm concern. Some are welcome to think that her methodhoods are non-tech and don't meet meteorology rigor, but rainstorms way still works. HM can disagree as he lives and dies by a defined set of rules, but rainstorm don't. Doesn't mean it is not WINNING.

Dude, rainstorm has called for a crappy hurricane season almost every year. Someone recently posted a quote from him/her in August of 2005 where rainstorm said it might be the end of the season for all intents and purposes. I have little interest in the tropical season as a whole, but this is just my outside observation as a participant of the boards for the past 8 years.

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Dude, rainstorm has called for a crappy hurricane season almost every year. Someone recently posted a quote from him/her in August of 2005 where rainstorm said it might be the end of the season for all intents and purposes. I have little interest in the tropical season as a whole, but this is just my outside observation as a participant of the boards for the past 8 years.

He's like 14 lol

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I wasn't replying directly to him, just partially...usually a post like that is for the public, in case we have some newer members who are not very familiar with past posters and such.

Sure rainstorm does this every season, but the least you could do is give credit when it is due. When and where on earth did it become wrong to disagree, even if you're not knowledgeable. Why is it a bannable or 5 posted offense? I know she does that, but she tries her best. I have known her for over a decade...We must be nice to her and understanding as she may take her only comfort within life in doing what she is doing. Lets show some love people.

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Sure rainstorm does this every season, but the least you could do is give credit when it is due. When and where on earth did it become wrong to disagree, even if you're not knowledgeable. Why is it bannable or 5 posted offense? I know she does that, but she tries her best...We must be nice to her and understanding as she may take her only comfort within life in doing what she is doing. Lets show some love people.

Sounds like you personally know rainstorm as a she.

And no, credit is not due when you predict the same thing every season. That is equivalent to giving credit to broken clock for being right twice a day. It did nothing skillfull. I've seen this same tired act for 8 years now, and I'm not even a big tropical buff.

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We aren't turning this into a pissing match between you and this guy. He can either answer my post with a reasonable response or not. Too much clutter will get people tossed.

LOL No one is gonna have to toss anyone....that was the end of the ill fated exchange as far as I was concerned.

We are just now encountering the outtermost feeder bands of of the season, with the climotalogical eyewall a good 2 months away at this point; declaring anyone to be "winning" is folly.

I am willing to bet that we will see at least an avg season and that we will not be forced to endure a second consecutive season without a LFing US cane.

Patience.

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Sure rainstorm does this every season, but the least you could do is give credit when it is due. When and where on earth did it become wrong to disagree, even if you're not knowledgeable. Why is it a bannable or 5 posted offense? I know she does that, but she tries her best. I have known her for over a decade...We must be nice to her and understanding as she may take her only comfort within life in doing what she is doing. Lets show some love people.

She\he is like most hobbyists, and pros for that matter, in that he\she wins some and loses some.

Rainstorm is a knowledgeable poster, though.

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She\he is like most hobbyists, and pros for that matter, in that he\she wins some and loses some.

Rainstorm is a knowledgeable poster, though.

Yes, lets try to understand that we all win and we all lose. If rainstorm thinks it is a good idea to forecast a inactive season, then if it fails then rainstorm loses one. I believe rainstorm tries her best...

I'm sorry for going off...

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She\he is like most hobbyists, and pros for that matter, in that he\she wins some and loses some.

Rainstorm is a knowledgeable poster, though.

A knowledgeable poster on how TC development will fail and always predicts every year...ala his/her prediction in 2005 and many other times. Its mostly useless.

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Yes, lets try to understand that we all win and we all lose. If rainstorm thinks it is a good idea to forecast a inactive season then if it fails then rainstorm loses one. I believe rainstorm tries her best...

I'm sorry for going off...

No offense....just a little late night trolling.....it's all good.

I honestly think that rainstorm does derive a bit of evil pleasure from twisting cybertitties every now and again, but I'm sure there is some level of effort put forth.

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Lets get back to talking about the tropics...

I think the 00z run is the first run I've seen the GFS start to get TC happy out in the eastern Atlantic. It has three systems potentially towards the end of the forecast period, with two out in the eastern Atlantic and another probably forming from an MCS off the east coast. Its a pretty large departure though from the previous set of runs, so it will be interesting to see if this is a fluke or if the other models start to jump aboard.

The three most accurate global models (ECWMF,UKMET,GFS) all continue to forecast the MJO amplifying into phase 1/2 which should bode well for enhanced divergence across the Atlantic basin... now if we could only get a robust Kelvin wave to move through the Atlantic, there could be more confidence in something popping up during the time-frame suggested by the operational GFS.

zkq32v.gif

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0z GFS is hinting at some potential homebrew off of South Carolina for late week/weekend (generally Sat/Sun). Euro isn't as gung-ho on the development but at 138 it shows a lil low trying to close off near Hilton Head as it goes inland.

Stalled out front, surface high to the north...can't rule out something quasi-tropical firing up...

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Perhaps a trigger for the SW Caribbean monsoonal trough...?...then again Ed says I am a "tad too enthusiastic this season", so it's probably nothing...;)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN

WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS

NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN

WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A

LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

post-32-0-47669000-1310384344.gif

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Nice to see the GFS showing something, but until the Euro or the developmment happy CMC join in, I can remain only glass quaeter full optimistic.

But lemons are always nice.

And even if the Euro shows the ridge of death, second run in a row of a polar trough getting pinched, and maybe a weakness coming back West under it which might let any disturbance come farther North. Assuming there is a disturbance.

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011071100!!chart.gif

post-138-0-66574000-1310384581.jpg

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