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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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Still missing the hint from the blank run you posted yesterday.

All the craziness on the 18z run today is in lala land.

Last night I posted the 18Z. Many scoff at the reliability with 'off hour' runs, but they can reinforce what 'on hour' guidance suggest from time to time. An area of generally disturbed weather is looking likely in the EPAC/ Western Basin. While a strong system may not be likely, the signals are coming together to suggest we'll begin to ramp up as we enter August... we will see...

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Last night I posted the 18Z. Many scoff at the reliability with 'off hour' runs

I don't know if we've covered the topic in the tropical threads or not, but with the major increases in data assimilation over the last decade, the off hour run myth is nonsense except for very special circumstances.

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I don't know if we've covered the topic in the tropical threads or not, but with the major increases in data assimilation over the last decade, the off hour run myth is nonsense except for very special circumstances.

I think we talked about it a bit last year when someone debunked the idea that the 6z and 18z were worthless....

You still have a group that will lambast any posting of those runs. Even in the short-range.

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2005 was an epic year by all accounts, and you're right, 75% of stuff or it seemed so developed into a tropical cyclone, and was horrible for alot of people. This year looks like its going to be more of a classic August explosion and quiet July for the most part, there is very little model support in the short and medium term, all the possibilities are shown in the long term, which is like saying Weekly World News is real, it not worth trusting.

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I don't think anything is going to develop for the next couple of weeks, which is pretty normal of course as July are more quite then Junes because the trough that hangs over into the western Caribbean moves fully into the pacific this month. Wait until August. I of course somehow doubt this year will be anywhere near as active as 2010, but 1999 only had 12 storms and was a very good season.

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I don't think anything is going to develop for the next couple of weeks, which is pretty normal of course as July are more quite then Junes because the trough that hangs over into the western Caribbean moves fully into the pacific this month. Wait until August. I of course somehow doubt this year will be anywhere near as active as 2010, but 1999 only had 12 storms and was a very good season.

Of course, 1999 had Floyd, and did some serious damage up the NC coast up into Virginia coast

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I don't know if we've covered the topic in the tropical threads or not, but with the major increases in data assimilation over the last decade, the off hour run myth is nonsense except for very special circumstances.

snowstorms on the east coast? :lol:

The statistical noise between 6/18 and 0/12 is too small anymore...the correlation scores are all "ballpark" at this point so there is some value in 6/18 but I still rely more heavily on the 0 and 12z for guidance. Old habits are hard to break...doesn't mean I disregard the off runs but 0/12 tend to get more "looks" from me.

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Snip from the morning TWD:

SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO

SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN

MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY

STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO

THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL

AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE

MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN

MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR

NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS

FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

My hunch is that we'll see some sort of monsoonal gyre spin up a disturbance later in the week/next weekend. Again, we will see...

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I keep hearing 2008 mentioned, but we have 2 weeks to get to 'Don' or we'll be 3 storms behind, and I have a feeling we'll be 3 storms behind. The analog winters may be similar, but this doesn't feel like 2008 redux.

Since it isn't August yet, I really can't go all Rainstorm. And 2004, my favorite season of recent seasons, didn't even have a storm yet at this point.

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I keep hearing 2008 mentioned, but we have 2 weeks to get to 'Don' or we'll be 3 storms behind, and I have a feeling we'll be 3 storms behind. The analog winters may be similar, but this doesn't feel like 2008 redux.

Since it isn't August yet, I really can't go all Rainstorm. And 2004, my favorite season of recent seasons, didn't even have a storm yet at this point.

June/July activity is poorly correlated to ASO activity. Unless it is 2005, who cares what happens in June/July.

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Why I mentioned the joyous 2004 season.

04 was a weak El Nino. We are no where near that scenario and bears no resemblance to this season. A 2004 mention is pointless. Troll in OT where you may stand a chance...;)

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Since it isn't August yet, I really can't go all Rainstorm. And 2004, my favorite season of recent seasons, didn't even have a storm yet at this point.

As much as Rainstorm's predictions are respected by many in the tropical prediction hobbyist community, I also can't go all Rainstorm or any Rainstorm for that matter. In addition, this season hasn't even been slow vs. climo. It has been near climo fwiw. Although I'm not predicting this, it wouldn't at all be surprising to see the next NS not be until mid-August. That's just the way the Atlantic behaves in many seasons, including in some active seasons. The first vestiges of autumn well up north are what seems to set things in motion in many instances. I've seen some theories that suggest that higher pressures coming down from the north as a result of seasonal cooling seem to increase the tendency of lower pressures down below in the tropics having a better chance to concentrate. OTOH, the overall summer doldrums often include tropical activity doldrums for much of the time.

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What analogs are looking best at this point? Obviously not 2004 or 2005, 2008 seemed like a good match especially with late year comparisons but we were already past Major Hurricane Bertha and heading towards robust Hurricane Dolly...so 2008 seems a little off for a possible analog.

Does 1999 still seem like a decent one? One storm until late August, then two powerful U.S. Hurricanes (Bret, Floyd), a barrage of storms (Dennis, Irene, Jose, Lenny) and six Cat 4 storms?

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As much as Rainstorm's predictions are respected by many in the tropical prediction hobbyist community, I also can't go all Rainstorm or any Rainstorm for that matter. In addition, this season hasn't even been slow vs. climo. It has been near climo fwiw. Although I'm not predicting this, it wouldn't at all be surprising to see the next NS not be until mid-August. That's just the way the Atlantic behaves in many seasons, including in some active seasons. The first vestiges of autumn well up north are what seems to set things in motion in many instances. I've seen some theories that suggest that higher pressures coming down from the north as a result of seasonal cooling seem to increase the tendency of lower pressures down below in the tropics having a better chance to concentrate. OTOH, the overall summer doldrums often include tropical activity doldrums for much of the time.

Back when I subscribed to JB, he had a theory the cooling of land as compared to the water (and the water does lag by several weeks) helps. Besides higher pressures from the North, the compatively low pressure over South Amemrica as compared to the Caribbean due to land heating (JB even had some self created index between Jamaica and some station in Venezuela or Colombia) weakens in August and September, making the Caribbean less hostile due to weaker low level Easterlies.

One thing I've noticed, and can't explain, shear seems to become less hostile in the Eastern Atlantic just as SSTs become warm enough to support development. I have a feeling its cart before the horse, maybe weaker Easterlies are what finally lets the water warm. By that standard, we should get an early start to CV season w/ SSTs running as much as 1ºC above normal.

About 'trolling' and Steve, he just seems a tad too enthusiastic this season. Another reason I'm not going all 'Rainstorm' yet, ImpactWeather, a local met firm heavy into energy/offshore drilling operations forecasting, isn't backing down on their numbers.

I'm not Debbie Downer, just Debbie Downer the next 10 days to 2 weeks, and even there, glass 1/16th optimistic, Euro pinches off the tail of a deep East Coast polar trough and starts to retrograde it, so even though the monster mean ridge doesn't really move, it has a weakness rolling Westward beneath it, so if we did have Arlene Part Deux in 9 or 10 days, maybe it would come far enough North to provide more forum excitement and rain on my lawn.

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011071012!!chart.gif

Always a silver lining, Mr. Optimist

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What analogs are looking best at this point? Obviously not 2004 or 2005, 2008 seemed like a good match especially with late year comparisons but we were already past Major Hurricane Bertha and heading towards robust Hurricane Dolly...so 2008 seems a little off for a possible analog.

Does 1999 still seem like a decent one? One storm until late August, then two powerful U.S. Hurricanes (Bret, Floyd), a barrage of storms (Dennis, Irene, Jose, Lenny) and six Cat 4 storms?

An analog year does not have to have storms on the exact same dates as each other. The main focus is number of storms and impact areas.

Everything will work out in the end.

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it's wouldn't be july without weenie hand wringing

Who da weenie? NHC climatology says the second named storm is August 1st. I'm just saying nothing looks apparent the next 2 weeks.

I am glad the Spring begins in 11.5 months signature has been replaced. I don't know who makes those defective gifs, probably an ice p***** since they got Winter and Autumn correct.

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June/July activity is poorly correlated to ASO activity. Unless it is 2005, who cares what happens in June/July.

July was probably the most anomolous month of the 2005 season. We probably won't see another July like that in our lifetime. December was quite strange as well.

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