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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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Well, you want to know what annoys me? You just disappearing from the tropical discussions for months at a time!

I hope this is the start of your re-commitment to our community. :wub:

Nice! Congrats on the cool view. Hopefully you'll need to be evacuated to the lower floors at some point this season because of high winds. B)

LOLZ. Unlike Houston, Orlando does it right with their taller buildings. In 04 during Charley there were little if any windows blown out on the tall buildings downtown.

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LOLZ. Unlike Houston, Orlando does it right with their taller buildings. In 04 during Charley there were little if any windows blown out on the tall buildings downtown.

You got several 70 story buildings downtown? I missed that while working for Ronald Reagan in the 32813...

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Well, look who else has come in out of the cold! LEK-- along with one of his treasured forecast maps.

It's a tearful reunion. I think I'm going to cry. :wub:

This is a direct threat to U_Thant. He should do internet Jim Cantore and give us play by play as it comes ashore.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING

AMZ550-552-570-572-011615-

/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0039.110601T1417Z-110601T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

1017 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO CAPE CANAVERAL OUT TO 20 NM.

FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA BREVARD

COUNTY LINE.

FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO

CAPE CANAVERAL.

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1015 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS

AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS 40 TO 60

MILES OFFSHORE THE CANAVERAL NATIONAL SEASHORE...MOVING SOUTHWEST

AT 20 KNOTS.

*THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE COAST BETWEEN FLAGLER

BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL THROUGH MIDDAY.

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You got several 70 story buildings downtown? I missed that while working for Ronald Reagan in the 32813...

Sun Trust Center is approx 35 stories. Not the size of Houston buildings.

I should have been more exact. What I was trying to get at is we just do our roofs better (i.e. no gravel on the rooftops).

Downtown grew since you moved away. Quite a few buildings AOA 375ft + now.

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Nice way to start a season with a small yet interesting little invest even if it isn't going to amount to much. Then the area in the caribbean is looking good this morning also as it festers in a prime spot for development.

Gonna be intersting to see which analog years Dr Gray goes with today. If he sticks with the 5 he listed in April then it could be a busy year for us on the east coast.

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Opening Day is great especially when you have some action that will pass through your area.

I finally got that window office on a high floor I have been after for years. I can't wait to watch the weather roll in today.

Yep, looking forward to some rain and a few storms today as that little system passes by. Happy Hurricane Season 2011 to all!!!!:mapstorm:

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The 12Z GFS and Canadian continue to suggest that the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean will slowly develop and drift N, just S of Cuba/Isle of Youth in the days ahead...

post-32-0-26843700-1306948981.jpg

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All reliable global model guidance now indicates TC genesis in the Caribbean sometime within the next 5 days or so, with the ECMWF/UKMET being quicker to develop it than the GFS. I don't see any reason to disagree with this general solution, and I would give this somewhere around a 70% chance at eventually becoming a TC. Cyclonic turning is already becoming evident in the visible imagery just E of Nicaragua, and this vorticity should increase in the wake of the Kelvin wave currently passing through. The amplification of the upper-level ridge, potentially also influenced by the KW passage, across the Caribbean should result in a decrease in shear as well.

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two_atl.gif

Attention now shifting back to the Caribbean...

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND

WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE

TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ONCE

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE LATE THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS.

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