Cyclonicjunkie Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Its just a question people, I am trying to learn something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Higher resolution right? LEK has described the only useful part of the NAM relative to the tropics (which is an indirect approach to the tropics). WRT track, cyclogenesis and tropical precipitation, it adds no value. If you want a more detailed presentation of how things won't work out, then yeah, the NAM is your tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 LEK has described the only useful part of the NAM relative to the tropics And given B_I's numerous complaints about the current operational NAM, I'd question its utility even in that instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Because the model physics in it are tuned for continental, mid-latitude, baroclinic weather systems, not maritime, tropical, warm cored weather systems. It pools moisture in the low levels and the mid-levels are too cool, allowing for unrealistic values of conditional instability. That leads to overamplification and mostly worthless solutions. In order for a gridded (vs. spectral) model to be reasonable in the tropics, it needs to have nested grids to properly sample the inner core and allow the mass fields to stay in balance. Even then, we see how poorly the HWRF is at forecasting TCs and it uses similar physics to the NAM (though tuned to the tropics) at a better resolution with nested grids. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 And given B_I's numerous complaints about the current operational NAM, I'd question its utility even in that instance. I see this as an implicit request for a panel from the parallel NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Apparently the higher res nam is useless and not allowed in tropical threads, even if it is in perfect agreement with the Euro and GFS . This doesn't sound like a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 This doesn't sound like a question. It wasn't, it was a statement. I just couldnt see the harm in looking at the nam if it's showing something simular to other numerical guidance. Obviously I was wrong, and stand corrected. That said, I will still look at the nam to see what it's showing, old habits (even if they're wrong) are hard to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 the stormsurf model is kind of like the euro too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I have to say this, the thing they lemoned I think is not the one that is going to develop, I think and the models to varying degrees that the mess between 10and20n and 63w is the one if any to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Looking at the 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS, I think we need to issue a "Tropical Weather Weenie Suicide Watch" . Its going to be a rough 10-15 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if things remain quiet until August. In fact, I'd say there is a decent chance that Bret is in fact our first Hurricane that we don't see until August. Keep in mind, this happened in 1999, too. Arlene formed in June and we didn't see Bret until August 18th, and with that, a 125 kt Cat 4 coiled up next to Texas. Then came Cat-4 Cindy, Cat-2 Dennis, Cat-4 Floyd, Gert, Cat-2 Irene and Jose, and finally Cat-4 Lenny before the season winded down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Here are my latest thoughts on the Atlantic basin... I think the player to watch the next 48 hours is the tropical wave in the Atlantic. Its at a low latitude, but it currently is under a favorable upper level environment at it has at least moderate model support for continued development. Chances are it will likely run out of room before TCG can occur, but as many have been alluding to, it could help aid with something in the Caribbean down the road. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/07/tropics-becoming-more-interesting-with-two-disturbances/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Here are my latest thoughts on the Atlantic basin... I think the player to watch the next 48 hours is the tropical wave in the Atlantic. Its at a low latitude, but it currently is under a favorable upper level environment at it has at least moderate model support for continued development. Chances are it will likely run out of room before TCG can occur, but as many have been alluding to, it could help aid with something in the Caribbean down the road. http://philstropical...o-disturbances/ Dolly-redux, Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Since things are quiet, I thought some might find this fascinating. The tropical update podcasts I've done since the 2005 Season were archived and the archives from before 2007 were thought to be lost, but they were recently found in an old hard drive. I compiled a timeline of the evolution of the wave that spawned TD-10, then the interaction between the remnants of TD-10 and the wave over the Greater Antilles which spawned TD-12 and ultimately, Hurricane Katrina. Enjoy and comments welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Looking at the 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS, I think we need to issue a "Tropical Weather Weenie Suicide Watch" . Its going to be a rough 10-15 days... Slow time in July gives time to appreciate other things. Like the databuoy off Islip pushing 23º. 2011 is on the curve of normalcy with 1 named storm and no hurricanes until August 1st. Happy thoughts, offshore Islip pushing 25º by meat and potatoes season in August and September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Dolly-redux, Phil? Not quite... this system is significantly further south so I think the primary reason why it won't have a chance to develop will be land interaction. Looking decent this morning, although its hard to tell if the ball of convection is outrunning the wave axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The wave that the models were sniffing out for development in the Western Caribbean has been added this morning... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 There goes the shuttle launch for tomorrow... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107071222 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011070706, WHXX01 KWBC 071201 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1201 UTC THU JUL 7 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20110707 0600 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110707 0600 110707 1800 110708 0600 110708 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 24.4N 83.4W 25.6N 84.6W 26.5N 85.5W 27.7N 86.2W BAMD 24.4N 83.4W 25.8N 83.9W 27.3N 84.4W 29.0N 84.9W BAMM 24.4N 83.4W 25.4N 84.5W 26.4N 85.3W 27.6N 86.1W LBAR 24.4N 83.4W 25.2N 83.8W 26.4N 84.4W 27.8N 84.7W SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110709 0600 110710 0600 110711 0600 110712 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 28.6N 86.5W 30.2N 86.7W 31.2N 87.3W 31.2N 88.6W BAMD 30.7N 84.6W 32.1N 82.5W 31.4N 82.9W 30.1N 85.3W BAMM 28.6N 86.4W 30.3N 87.1W 31.2N 88.4W 31.1N 90.3W LBAR 29.2N 84.4W 32.3N 82.1W 34.9N 80.0W 37.2N 77.5W SHIP 33KTS 37KTS 42KTS 43KTS DSHP 33KTS 37KTS 28KTS 27KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 24.4N LONCUR = 83.4W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 3KT LATM12 = 24.0N LONM12 = 83.1W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 3KT LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 82.5W WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 RECON will take a look see tomorrow... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0915 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-037 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 08/1700Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 08/1530Z D. 28.2N 85.0W E. 08/1630Z TO 08/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 09/0600,1200Z B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE C. 09/0430Z D. 29.4N 84.8W E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 If 96L can develop, I think it'll be the first NAM win over the GFS since Edouard. Like my Houston Astros ending a 5 game losing streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 If 96L can develop, I think it'll be the first NAM win over the GFS since Edouard. Like my Houston Astros ending a 5 game losing streak. The NAM no longer shows it developing. It is just a cluster of convection and that's it, the lowest pressure the NAM gives it is 1008mb. Even then that does not happen till it is off the NE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The NAM no longer shows it developing. It is just a cluster of convection and that's it, the lowest pressure the NAM gives it is 1008mb. Even then that does not happen till it is off the NE coast. I guess they have to schedule recon for something that close to Florida. Maybe the shuttle launch scheduled figures in as well, but there is no reliable guidance, this is the divergence region of a cold core low, and CIMSS shear puts this under 20 to 30 knots of Southerly shear. The wave headed for South America would be a better candidate for an invest, although it looks like land interaction puts the kabosh on that. The morning Jamaica sounding had 28 knot East winds at 850mb, even if it stayed over water, it would need to get beyond that, probably. Hard to get good convergence at the low levels (not to mention favorable shear) when the Easterlies are that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The 12Z GFS suggests a TC developing near the Yucatan/BoC. This is the strong TW that will be near the S Windward Islands on Saturday. It also appears that the wave is gaining some latitude as well this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The 12Z GFS suggests a TC developing near the Yucatan/BoC. This is the strong TW that will be near the S Windward Islands on Saturday. It also appears that the wave is gaining some latitude as well this morning... Still too far out there, but looks like any moisture (let alone a cyclone) will be kept very far south for drought stricken TX... the pattern is just pretty straightforward, and unless there's a surprise s/w riding below the ridge, everything will move W to WNW through the Caribbean and GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Still too far out there, but looks like any moisture (let alone a cyclone) will be kept very far south for drought stricken TX... the pattern is just pretty straightforward, and unless there's a surprise s/w riding below the ridge, everything will move W to WNW through the Caribbean and GOM Agreed. I'm not too bullish on this one yet. There doesn't seem to be much of a trigger beyond the easterly wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Agreed. I'm not too bullish on this one yet. There doesn't seem to be much of a trigger beyond the easterly wave. Yep, agreed, only reason right now looks to be that the Euro and GFS have been trying to spin something up for several runs, plus the favorable upward motion in the western part of the basin. Talking about Arlene 2.... the SW GOM has already "healed" from Arlene 1 in just 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Jorge was talking about an unfavorable pattern in the MJO locally after a couple of weeks, but it looks sort of stuck to me. Of course, he clearly knows more than I do about the indices... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Well the 12Z Canadian likes a system near the Yucatan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 12z Euro seems to show a tropical storm into the panhandle by 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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