wxmx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 ok rainstorm I have been RS'd tagged twice now this season. Someone has to fill the void, I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The GFS continues to advertise vortisity passing the Windward Islands and into the S Caribbean. My hunch is that we'll be watching the Western Caribbean in about a week... 12Z GFS is semi-encouraging on potential Tropical Storm Steve Bret. Could it come close enough to Texas to rain on my lawn a la Dolly if it isn't a GFS figment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Someday, the NAM will be right. Someday. And the 576 dm thickness line wrapped around the NAM low suggests the NAM is forecasting warm core development. You can't get TCG with 30-50 knots of westerly flow at 200mb. The NAM doesn't make physical sense, and it does this all the time with warm core systems in the Atlantic, spinning every little thunderstorm cluster into a tropical cyclone in the face of adverse upper level conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Just seeing that model run of a tight cyclone near the Yucatan makes me (wx) horny. It's my favorite kind of porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 You can't get TCG with 30-50 knots of westerly flow at 200mb. The NAM doesn't make physical sense, and it does this all the time with warm core systems in the Atlantic, spinning every little thunderstorm cluster into a tropical cyclone in the face of adverse upper level conditions. Um, you don't actually think I was defending the NAM's solution today, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Nice little cluster of deep convection right now... I think this is a far more legitimate disturbance to be watching than whats going on near the east coast, despite it being located pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 New page, new attached image of Steve's storm, which, if it verified, and there was a weakness in the trough as depicted, could bring beneficial rains to my lawn, citrus, live oak and palm trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Just seeing that model run of a tight cyclone near the Yucatan makes me (wx) horny. It's my favorite kind of porn. Just a bit early, but you get the idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Um, you don't actually think I was defending the NAM's solution today, do you? I'm not saying you were, but the point is the NAM does this all the time, and it gets the weenies up in a tizzy. Ignore the NAM, and look at what the GFS shows in comparison. Even if the NAM ends up being partially correct in regards to development, generally there is excellent model support along with it so it is still useless since other models have a better handle on the situation. The GFS shows nothing more than a strong moisture fetch aiding to rainfall along the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Um, you don't actually think I was defending the NAM's solution today, do you? You need to take a Xanax or smoke a joint. Take a deep breath and calm down dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The Euro and GFS are on board with somewhat favorable conditions for that deep tropical TW east of the Windward islands right now. Their ensembles are favoring a rather deep West coast trough and another trough around the Labrador. This would favor ample ridging east of the Rockies by day 7+, which would translate to a threat (if TCG actually verifies) for TX/MX down the road. But it's still too early for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 You need to take a Xanax or smoke a joint. Take a deep breath and calm down dude. Thanks for contributing so much to this forum, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Everything outside just turned yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 NOGAPS FTL https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant∏=z85&dtg=2011070612&set=Tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I would watch the wave near 45W for the best long-term potential. Land interaction and unfavorable shear will keep this from developing much until it reaches the western Caribbean. Assuming the MJO forecasts are anywhere near correct, we should be under a favorable amplified phase 1-2. The best shot at TC genesis from this would be probably around the July 12-15 time frame, with the major caveats being that there's weak model support and this may not gain much latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 12z Euro is faster with the TW, but outcome is probably near the same...a weak TS into MX. Edit: It's actually Arlene redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 12z Euro is faster with the TW, but outcome is probably near the same...a weak TS into MX. Edit: It's actually Arlene redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Um, you don't actually think I was defending the NAM's solution today, do you? Apparently the higher res nam is useless and not allowed in tropical threads, even if it is in perfect agreement with the Euro and GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 18z GFS takes this into the Yucatan in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Apparently the higher res nam is useless and not allowed in tropical threads Yes, that is correct. How many meteorologists do you need to tell you that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yes, that is correct. How many meteorologists do you need to tell you that? I can understand it in longer ranges, but if its showing pretty much the same thing the euro is showing in a higher resolution, how is it useless?Its just a question, not an attempt to prove anybody wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I can understand it in longer ranges, but if its showing pretty much the same thing the euro is showing in a higher resolution, how is it useless? Its just a question, not an attempt to prove anybody wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Say What? I can understand it in longer ranges, but if its showing pretty much the same thing the euro is showing in a higher resolution, how is it useless? Its just a question, not an attempt to prove anybody wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I can understand it in longer ranges, but if its showing pretty much the same thing the euro is showing in a higher resolution, how is it useless? Its just a question, not an attempt to prove anybody wrong. If it's showing pretty much the same thing, why would it be useful for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 If it's showing pretty much the same thing, why would it be useful for? Higher resolution right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I can understand it in longer ranges, but if its showing pretty much the same thing the euro is showing in a higher resolution, how is it useless? Its just a question, not an attempt to prove anybody wrong. Because the model physics in it are tuned for continental, mid-latitude, baroclinic weather systems, not maritime, tropical, warm cored weather systems. It pools moisture in the low levels and the mid-levels are too cool, allowing for unrealistic values of conditional instability. That leads to overamplification and mostly worthless solutions. In order for a gridded (vs. spectral) model to be reasonable in the tropics, it needs to have nested grids to properly sample the inner core and allow the mass fields to stay in balance. Even then, we see how poorly the HWRF is at forecasting TCs and it uses similar physics to the NAM (though tuned to the tropics) at a better resolution with nested grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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