OKpowdah Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Alright, where's the action? July was supposed to start good. C'mon. we have support for convection in the Atlantic with large scale UL divergence, but two huge troughs have put a damper on the chances of any development in the basin ... for now. Last year we waited around until the last 10 days of August for the brunt of activity. This year I think we start around August 1-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Per NHC climo page, 1966 to 2009, average first named storm is July 9th, first hurricane is August 10th. Second named storm is August 1st. We're ahead of the curve. July is supposed to be full of boredom, and ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Alright, where's the action? July was supposed to start good. C'mon. Patiience Luke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Patiience Luke. STFU!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 STFU!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 The Euro and CMC are hinting at some GOM action by day 9+. Something to watch, IMO, but way too early to worry about details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The Euro and CMC are hinting at some GOM action by day 9+. Something to watch, IMO, but way too early to worry about details. Definitely will be more promising by that period as the upper low shifts west, and ridging builds over the southeast. Could offer some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Since this season is so boring so far... If another Cat 3+ were to hit NOLA.. would the city be better prepared? Are all the levees fixed to withstand another major hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I think we'll have more storms in September than we will in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I think we'll have more storms in September than we will in July. Idk. Your really going out on a limb there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Anyone see 00z NAM? Develops that low quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Ya just can't get a tropical storm when ya need one... The Eastern Carolinas have received a pitiful amount of rain since March and are now in full drought. And with three wildfires just in my NWS CWA, people are taking turns suffering the heavy smoke with each shift in wind direction. Even here on Cape Fear we've had visibility drop to as low as 0.25 mi with heavy, putrid smoke (from distant peat bog fires that are near-impossible to control.) There's rarely a day when at least a handful of counties don't have a "code red air quality alert." It may not make the national news but it's pretty darned bad in this part of the country. We're in desperate need of sustained heavy rains....so of course our tropics are dead as a door nail. The Bermuda High (with its notorious heat and humidity) is in full control here; and it's been stuck like glue all summer.... Turn that frown upside-down. Rain on the way for you. EDIT: sorry for the OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Anyone see 00z NAM? Develops that low quite nicely. Yea a couple runs now.. NE could see some flooding rains if that ticks closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Oh noez...not flooding rains for new england on the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Oh noez...not flooding rains for new england on the NAM! Using the NAM as a tropical model for the loss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Anyone see 00z NAM? Stopped reading right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Using the NAM as a tropical model for the loss... IIRC, the two weak sisters, the NAM and the Canadian, actually were ahead of the curve on Edouard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 NAM as a TC genesis tool is very poor, as it is now. However, there is value as a tool when trying to see any mid-latitude influences that may or may not impact a disturbance or already existing TC, wrt track and/or intensity changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Either way.. someone should see some tropical like rains this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The 06Z GFS spins up a system near the Windward Islands later in the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Not every July is 2005. No panic. Not even the Canadian spins up anything on its latest run. The GEFS OLR/MJO phase remain positive through 2 weeks, I haven't even given up hope on a second half of July storm. And when it does get active (and we are ahead of the curve for a couple more days on named storms, than normal until August) the MDR is happy and toasty. /motivational speaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Wow, impressive +SST anomalies along the mid-atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Wow, impressive +SST anomalies along the mid-atlantic coast. I wonder if that's why the Nam is blowing up that storm in 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I wonder if that's why the Nam is blowing up that storm in 3-4 days maybe one of the mets can write a really detailed post about this curious NAM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 maybe one of the mets can write a really detailed post about this curious NAM solution I vote for Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I vote for Phil someone has to get to the bottom of why New England is being threatened by tropical-like rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 someone has to get to the bottom of why New England is being threatened by tropical-like rains. Someday, the NAM will be right. Someday. And the 576 dm thickness line wrapped around the NAM low suggests the NAM is forecasting warm core development. Too bad I don't pay for JB anymore. Maybe he cut a special 'Big Dog'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Ya just can't get a tropical storm when ya need one... The Eastern Carolinas have received a pitiful amount of rain since March and are now in full drought. And with three wildfires just in my NWS CWA, people are taking turns suffering the heavy smoke with each shift in wind direction. Even here on Cape Fear we've had visibility drop to as low as 0.25 mi with heavy, putrid smoke (from distant peat bog fires that are near-impossible to control.) There's rarely a day when at least a handful of counties don't have a "code red air quality alert." It may not make the national news but it's pretty darned bad in this part of the country. We're in desperate need of sustained heavy rains....so of course our tropics are dead as a door nail. The Bermuda High (with its notorious heat and humidity) is in full control here; and it's been stuck like glue all summer.... Actually the Bermuda high has been absent this summer. Thank your heat/lack of rain to -AO + positive feedback from the ongoing drought + remains of a La Niña pattern ... with the former being the most important factor probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The GFS continues to advertise vortisity passing the Windward Islands and into the S Caribbean. My hunch is that we'll be watching the Western Caribbean in about a week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Actually the Bermuda high has been absent this summer. ok rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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