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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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Alright, where's the action? July was supposed to start good. C'mon.

we have support for convection in the Atlantic with large scale UL divergence, but two huge troughs have put a damper on the chances of any development in the basin ... for now.

Last year we waited around until the last 10 days of August for the brunt of activity. This year I think we start around August 1-4

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The Euro and CMC are hinting at some GOM action by day 9+. Something to watch, IMO, but way too early to worry about details.

Definitely will be more promising by that period as the upper low shifts west, and ridging builds over the southeast. Could offer some hope

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Ya just can't get a tropical storm when ya need one...

The Eastern Carolinas have received a pitiful amount of rain since March and are now in full drought. And with three wildfires just in my NWS CWA, people are taking turns suffering the heavy smoke with each shift in wind direction. Even here on Cape Fear we've had visibility drop to as low as 0.25 mi with heavy, putrid smoke (from distant peat bog fires that are near-impossible to control.) There's rarely a day when at least a handful of counties don't have a "code red air quality alert." It may not make the national news but it's pretty darned bad in this part of the country.

We're in desperate need of sustained heavy rains....so of course our tropics are dead as a door nail. The Bermuda High (with its notorious heat and humidity) is in full control here; and it's been stuck like glue all summer....

sad.gif

Turn that frown upside-down. Rain on the way for you.

p120i00.gif

EDIT: sorry for the OT

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Not every July is 2005. No panic. Not even the Canadian spins up anything on its latest run.

The GEFS OLR/MJO phase remain positive through 2 weeks, I haven't even given up hope on a second half of July storm.

And when it does get active (and we are ahead of the curve for a couple more days on named storms, than normal until August) the MDR is happy and toasty.

/motivational speaker.

post-138-0-23780000-1309958687.gif

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someone has to get to the bottom of why New England is being threatened by tropical-like rains.

Someday, the NAM will be right. Someday. And the 576 dm thickness line wrapped around the NAM low suggests the NAM is forecasting warm core development.

Too bad I don't pay for JB anymore. Maybe he cut a special 'Big Dog'.

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Ya just can't get a tropical storm when ya need one...

The Eastern Carolinas have received a pitiful amount of rain since March and are now in full drought. And with three wildfires just in my NWS CWA, people are taking turns suffering the heavy smoke with each shift in wind direction. Even here on Cape Fear we've had visibility drop to as low as 0.25 mi with heavy, putrid smoke (from distant peat bog fires that are near-impossible to control.) There's rarely a day when at least a handful of counties don't have a "code red air quality alert." It may not make the national news but it's pretty darned bad in this part of the country.

We're in desperate need of sustained heavy rains....so of course our tropics are dead as a door nail. The Bermuda High (with its notorious heat and humidity) is in full control here; and it's been stuck like glue all summer....

sad.gif

Bgisi.gif

s4SYm.gif

Actually the Bermuda high has been absent this summer. Thank your heat/lack of rain to -AO + positive feedback from the ongoing drought + remains of a La Niña pattern ... with the former being the most important factor probably.

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